Holding the 4th pick, who are we looking at drafting?

[Frobby]

I just took a look at Tampa's and Boston's draft options. Just filthy dirty sickening. Here's a quick hypothetical of what BOS/TAM may have an opportunity to do before BAL's second pick:

First Round

4. Orioles - Danny Hultzen (lhp, UVA)

Slightly off the point, but has Hultzen's stock risen that much? Here's an exchange we had five weeks ago:

Is Hultzen a kid who could creep into the upper tier with a good season? He is ranked 17 here. I heard a lot of good things about this kid when he was in high school.

To be honest, it will be tough because his pure stuff is a clear step behind everyone else. Great polish, great feel, good command of three offerings. But last spring his velo didn't stretch late into starts and he look the summer off so I haven't had a look since May. Strikes me as a Mike Leake type that could really carve up the minors with good command and quality of FB/CH, but probably doesn't project to front-end starter, and there are a number of arms in that top tier that do.

[Frobby]

I just took a look at Tampa's and Boston's draft options. Just filthy dirty sickening. Here's a quick hypothetical of what BOS/TAM may have an opportunity to do before BAL's second pick:

Supplemental First Round

36. Red Sox - Derek Fisher (of, Cedar Crest HS, Penn.)

38. Rays - Derek Fisher (of, Cedar Crest HS, Penn.)

Wow, that guy must really be good.

[Stotle]

Slightly off the point, but has Hultzen's stock risen that much? Here's an exchange we had five weeks ago:

I put him in there because he is local. He is not a top 5 guy for me, but he'll definitely be off the board by the first TAM/BOS pick and I figured a polished college lefty with track record would be a fit for the BAL SD profile. It could really be any number of 12 or so players.

To answer your question, for those who saw him as a fringe-1st Rd guy, his stock has definitely risen a lot. For those who saw him as a mid-1st Rd guy, he's maybe a slight step up, but represents more probability than some of the arms ahead of him (especially the high schoolers). He still doesn't project to a front-end starter, but the slider command has been the difference maker to my eyes, this spring.

We could honestly see something like 20-22 pitchers selected in the 1st Round in June.

[Stotle]

Wow, that guy must really be good.

Well, actually, Derek Michael Fisher, Jr. and Derek Michael Fisher, III are twins -- both elite draft prospects. Dad (Derek Senior) took the ole George Foreman approach to naming em.

Did I get you?

[allstar1579]

I put him in there because he is local. He is not a top 5 guy for me, but he'll definitely be off the board by the first TAM/BOS pick and I figured a polished college lefty with track record would be a fit for the BAL SD profile. It could really be any number of 12 or so players.

To answer your question, for those who saw him as a fringe-1st Rd guy, his stock has definitely risen a lot. For those who saw him as a mid-1st Rd guy, he's maybe a slight step up, but represents more probability than some of the arms ahead of him (especially the high schoolers). He still doesn't project to a front-end starter, but the slider command has been the difference maker to my eyes, this spring.

We could honestly see something like 20-22 pitchers selected in the 1st Round in June.

I still have him around 10-13 but I'm hearing AZ is taking him with a pre-draft deal.

[Stotle]

I still have him around 10-13 but I'm hearing AZ is taking him with a pre-draft deal.

Well, (1) I highly doubt that deal would be in place at this point (though it would generally make sense), and (2) he needs to sign the paperwork for 'Zona to draft him again (something his dad may not be too keen on after the first go 'round).

I'd question your source how certain he/she is of this.

[RandyM]

Tweet from Keith Law:

For what it's worth - at this point in the calendar, not much - I've now heard twice that Arizona (picking 3rd) loves UVA LHP Danny Hultzen.

7:11 PM Mar 20th via Seesmic Desktop

http://twitter.com/keithlaw

Looks like we would be Jungman/Gray/Barnes, but again it is really early.

[Frobby]

Well, actually, Derek Michael Fisher, Jr. and Derek Michael Fisher, III are twins -- both elite draft prospects. Dad (Derek Senior) took the ole George Foreman approach to naming em.

Did I get you?

Yeah, that's pretty cool. But what do they call them, "Junior" and "Trey?"

[Stotle]

Yeah, that's pretty cool. But what do they call them, "Junior" and "Trey?"

Haha. You goose, I was just joking.

[Frobby]

Well, (1) I highly doubt that deal would be in place at this point (though it would generally make sense), and (2) he needs to sign the paperwork for 'Zona to draft him again (something his dad may not be too keen on after the first go 'round).

I'd question your source how certain he/she is of this.

Was there a problem in the first go-round? My recollection is that Hultzen was hell-bent on going to college. In that circumstance, I'd think that being drafted by a particular team would be considered a compliment and would make the player be somewhat inclined to be favorably disposed to them the next time around.

[Stotle]

Was there a problem in the first go-round? My recollection is that Hultzen was hell-bent on going to college. In that circumstance, I'd think that being drafted by a particular team would be considered a compliment and would make the player be somewhat inclined to be favorably disposed to them the next time around.

That would be the normal assumption, but Mr. Hultzen spent all spring telling area scouts not to talk to Danny and that he had zero intention of signing. After the Diamondbacks drafted him, I've heard Mr. Hultzen flipped out, screamed at the 'Zona reps (area scout and I believe scouting director) and was most upset with them going explicitly against his wishes.

Flash-forward, I know more than one area guy has heard/experienced (honestly not sure which from the texts) that Mr. Hultzen will be heavily involved in the draft process again, including home visits/interviews now, workouts, and negotiations.

[allstar1579]

Well, (1) I highly doubt that deal would be in place at this point (though it would generally make sense), and (2) he needs to sign the paperwork for 'Zona to draft him again (something his dad may not be too keen on after the first go 'round).

I'd question your source how certain he/she is of this.

I'll talk to them and see exactly who they talked to, but they seemed pretty positive they were planning on taking him at 7, and if he keeps moving up charts would take him at 3.

Made sense to me with a predraft deal (no numbers were given to me) at 7 since it's sign it or lose it. If he's looking at mid-first round then slot at 7 is a good deal for him. I expect him to ask somewhere in the Leake ballpark if he goes 7.

[Say O!]

Another kid besides Hultzen I have read jumping up the board is SS Francisco Lindor.

Assuming the O's would be wary of Gray's build, could we see them electing to pick another high school SS? While duplicative of Machado, would that be the right selection if deemed "best player available"?

[Stotle]

Another kid besides Hultzen I have read jumping up the board is SS Francisco Lindor.

Assuming the O's would be wary of Gray's build, could we see them electing to pick another high school SS? While duplicative of Machado, would that be the right selection if deemed "best player available"?

Sure .

Now, to be clear, he was always the top shortstop in the draft. A lot of times "shooting up the draft boards" is writer speak. As of October Lindor was officially among evaluator's favorite players in the draft.

I mean, some if this is funny. If you are an evaluator, very few of these kids have shown anything that would give a completely different opinion of their skill set (there are some that have, but for the most part from what I have seen these are all the kids we expected them to be). To put it another way, if Hultzen was, say, #24 for you in February, and is #6 for you now because he's striking out double digits and allowing a run every three weeks, does he slip back to #24 if he gets knocked around a bit during conference play? Some of the bouncing around is a product of of there being a lot of closely bunched talent in this class, but the names being thrown around some media sources as "rising talent" just seems off.

Today Baseball America had Joe Panik as a kid with his stock rising. Others have pointed to Oregon's Tyler Anderson. Maybe I'm alone here, but I personally (and at least a few evaluators I've spoken with) had these guys as Supp-1st and 1st Rd talents, respectively, after the summer.

Shrug. I guess I'd just say the best course of action with the ESPN/Baseball America/etc. stuff is to read as many reputable sources as possible and pay attention to the descriptions of the players much more than the current "slot" they are projecting them to. You'll often times figure things out for yourself in a much cleaner way. Flashy headlines (PLayer X Shooting up Draft Boards) get page clicks -- I don't think they are the most accurate way to present the info, though.

[Say O!]

Stotle, if you were running the O's draft at 4, would Machado influence your decision at all?

In general, I subscribe to the BPA theory. Recent example, TB should have selected Posey even though they felt Navarro was their in-house catcher of the future.

I feel that when evaluating SS - the question comes down to - how much "value" is being created by that respective player's ability to play SS. In other words, are his other tools inflated when compared to a SS but only average when viewed in context of other positions.

So is this Lindor kid a BJ Upton (whose skills played elsewhere on the diamond) or a Tim Beckham (ordinary hit tools overall that played up because of SS)? Perhaps this is too much hindsight is 20-20 on Beckham, but you get the idea.