Latest KLaw mock --O's take Bundy

[ChaosLex]

Dolla-dolla bill, yall.

Agreed. Especially with the Diamondbacks having two Top 10 picks in this year's draft.

[waroriole]

With the new CBA coming up soon, and the possibility of a slot system (or something comparable), are any of these guys really going to be that tough to sign? Isn't their best chance to get a big bonus this year?

[Stotle]

Could be. I know stats take a back seat to the actual scouting too. However, pitching for the same team, agains the same teams, Bauer's stats are much more impressive than Coles. No doubt, that Cole grades out better on the stuff scale but Bauer must be doing something right and he's no slouch in the stuff department. I didn't realize how great a season he was having until I looked at the stats last night. He's got something like a 1.40 ERA (Barnes and Jungman are even better I think) but what really sticks out are the 160 or so K's in just about 100 innings pitched. I don't think any of these guys are going to be easy to sign, BTW.

Lots of pitches, lots of innings, lots and lots of swinging strikes out of the zone. Some gimmicky pitches that may or may not play against pro bats. Racking up stats against college players is even less meaningful than doing it in the low minors, I'd think. Don't get me wrong -- it's obviously a dominant performance. He's clearly, I think one of maybe three pitchers that could be legitimately called the best college pitcher in 2011. But the stats alone aren't going to tell you much, comparatively, across the top arms.

[Stotle]

I don't think any of these guys are going to be easy to sign, BTW.

Do you mean you think each of the top 10 players or so are going to be demanding $5million or more? Could you clarify the "these guys" and quantify the "not easy to sign"?

[allstar1579]

Could be. I know stats take a back seat to the actual scouting too. However, pitching for the same team, agains the same teams, Bauer's stats are much more impressive than Coles. No doubt, that Cole grades out better on the stuff scale but Bauer must be doing something right and he's no slouch in the stuff department. I didn't realize how great a season he was having until I looked at the stats last night. He's got something like a 1.40 ERA (Barnes and Jungman are even better I think) but what really sticks out are the 160 or so K's in just about 100 innings pitched. I don't think any of these guys are going to be easy to sign, BTW.

It's kinda like I mentioned the other day about Hultzen. The stats are kind of misleading in college when it comes to pitchers with better secondaries. Cole might get hit here or there if he's just throwing gas all day and blowing it past people, those kids can get lucky and get a hold of a 96mph pitch here or there, doesn't take much swing to hit one of those out just gotta get the good part of the bat on it. If Bauer is throwing good secondaries at people a) he's a glaring contrast to Cole throwing all that heat the night before, and b) most hitters at that stage can't lay off or hit good secondaries. A lot of times you'll see the unhittable stats from guys like Matusz or Hultzen that throw "softer" with better breaking stuff because hitters at this level haven't caught up to it. Then when they get to AA and the hitters start hitting those pitches it takes a little adjustment period.

[atlantaoriole]

Dylan Bundy's stats:

2011 Stats (as of 4/25)

8-0, 0.29 ERA, 111 Ks, 48 IP

Him or Bauer would be fantastic picks at #4. Bundy with his size, mechanics, and repertoire of pitches could reach the majors fast like a Porcello. Bauer sounds like you could pencil him in the starting rotation in 2013.

[RVAbird]

Lots of pitches, lots of innings, lots and lots of swinging strikes out of the zone. Some gimmicky pitches that may or may not play against pro bats. Racking up stats against college players is even less meaningful than doing it in the low minors, I'd think. Don't get me wrong -- it's obviously a dominant performance. He's clearly, I think one of maybe three pitchers that could be legitimately called the best college pitcher in 2011. But the stats alone aren't going to tell you much, comparatively, across the top arms.

This should be a stickied post.

There is a handful of college performers whose production doesn't quite match the stuff in terms of projecting future pro development.

[Stotle]

This should be a stickied post.

There is a handful of college performers whose production doesn't quite match the stuff in terms of projecting future pro development.

E.G.

Sean Gilmartin (lhp, FSU)

SO/9 - 10.32

BB/9 - 1.45

HR/9 - 0.29

WHIP - 0.80

Anyone want to take him over Cole?

[Stotle]

Anyone you draft, you are doing so based on how you project them going forward. I don't think anyone would suggest that performance be a leading part of the evaluation. That said, I'd like to think that performance would be a tie-breaker when you have a decision between a couple of closely related pitchers in the aspects you care about most.

One O's pick that always drove me nuts was the '99 1st round selection of Mike Paradis. Good size, power arm... lots of evaluators thought he could rise quickly with his power sinker. The year he came out, he had 39 walks in 55.1 innings, and a 5.37 era. I hadn't ever seen him pitch, but my immediate thought then was thinking he probably should have shown more in the ACC, if he was going to be a productive pro.

To an extent, I agree. But the numbers need to be placed in scouting context in order to have utility. Simply looking at the stat line may be useful in identifying players, but probably not so much when you are talking about comparing two or more players.

[LookinUp]

By the way, I'd pretty much cream my shorts if Cole falls to the O's. I'm rooting for Pitt to take Bundy now!

[hoosiers]

Anyone you draft, you are doing so based on how you project them going forward. I don't think anyone would suggest that performance be a leading part of the evaluation. That said, I'd like to think that performance would be a tie-breaker when you have a decision between a couple of closely related pitchers in the aspects you care about most.

One O's pick that always drove me nuts was the '99 1st round selection of Mike Paradis. Good size, power arm... lots of evaluators thought he could rise quickly with his power sinker. The year he came out, he had 39 walks in 55.1 innings, and a 5.37 era. I hadn't ever seen him pitch, but my immediate thought then was thinking he probably should have shown more in the ACC, if he was going to be a productive pro.

On the flip side, Arrieta stat's were not so good, but the Os scouts thought they could tweak his delivery to positive results and gave him $1M to see if they were correct. Performance only means so much - likely little - especially with these HSers that can dominate their area.

Remember when the Os draft Scheppers. It was reported that he had to dial back on his fastball because no one in his HS could catch him.

The draft is almost entirely about scouting relative to performance, IMO.

[hoosiers]

By the way, I'd pretty much cream my shorts if Cole falls to the O's. I'm rooting for Pitt to take Bundy now!

If there is growing consensus that Bundy is the better prospect, why would you root for this?

[Scrat1]

I read a Kevin Goldstein chat from the archives and he expressed some concern, though it didn't seem too major, about Bundy's workload for a high school pitcher. Have any of the scout/draft folk heard anyone else mention this?

[Stotle]

I read a Kevin Goldstein chat form the archives and he expressed some concern, though it didn't seem to major, about Bundy's workload for a high school pitcher. Have any of the scout/draft folk heard anyone else mention this?

Yes -- dates back to last spring. Fears have quieted but summer was inconsistent and I personally would want some sort of medical report if I'm inking. Not worried about "now", but some concern there could be something along the lines of "fraying" -- call it ticking-time-bomb concerns.

That said, I don't think it's at the forefront for most, considering the strength of his stuff this spring.

[LookinUp]

If there is growing consensus that Bundy is the better prospect, why would you root for this?

Growing consensus? I haven't heard one person say this. I've heard (on this board) that Cole is basically what Bundy hopes to become one day.