Rendon

[Frobby]

Is this a guy who people fixated on earlier in his career, but who simply hasn't progressed quite as much as expected or has injury issues that are likely to impede his talent?

I remember several years ago when Pedro Alvarez was a year away from beng drafted, and everyone was acting like there was no doubt he'd be the no. 1 pick the next year. He disappointed a little the next season, ended up going no. 3, and while he had a decent major league debut partway through last season (.787 OPS), it's not like he set the world on fire, and this year he is struggling.

So, I read all these posts hoping that Rendon is going to fall to us, as if he is some no doubt superstar and we are hoping that other teams will somehow be fooled so that we can pick him. But if he falls, perhaps there's a reason.

I'm just posting this to get some reactions from those who have followed Rendon closely. I don't pretend like I have any idea how good he is or is likely to be.

[Hank Scorpio]

Is this a guy who people fixated on earlier in his career, but who simply hasn't progressed quite as much as expected or has injury issues that are likely to impede his talent?

I remember several years ago when Pedro Alvarez was a year away from beng drafted, and everyone was acting like there was no doubt he'd be the no. 1 pick the next year. He disappointed a little the next season, ended up going no. 3, and while he had a decent major league debut partway through last season (.787 OPS), it's not like he set the world on fire, and this year he is struggling.

So, I read all these posts hoping that Rendon is going to fall to us, as if he is some no doubt superstar and we are hoping that other teams will somehow be fooled so that we can pick him. But if he falls, perhaps there's a reason.

I'm just posting this to get some reactions from those who have followed Rendon closely. I don't pretend like I have any idea how good he is or is likely to be.

He knows his strike zone.

[hoosiers]

So, I read all these posts hoping that Rendon is going to fall to us, as if he is some no doubt superstar and we are hoping that other teams will somehow be fooled so that we can pick him. But if he falls, perhaps there's a reason.

I'm just posting this to get some reactions from those who have followed Rendon closely. I don't pretend like I have any idea how good he is or is likely to be.

Though Rendon has been identified as an elite talent for a while now and continues to receive such status, I also believe a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted regarding his possible major league success - just like Alvarez and Gordon.

I also agree that the attention has been on Rendon for so long that folks are slow to believe a few others may be passing him based on merit.

I hope Joe Jordan is able to take the player at the top of his board.

[brotherlo38]

The injuries have to concern you. Two ankle injuries and now a shoulder injury. I'm not sure he's a guy the Orioles take, even if he fell to us.

[allstar1579]

The injuries have to concern you. Two ankle injuries and now a shoulder injury. I'm not sure he's a guy the Orioles take, even if he fell to us.

Nope, no concern long term at all. The ankle are just normal corner infielder injuries, I've had the same one myself, just as serious as the one he had last year. A couple months and you're good as new there. The shoulder is a tiny bit more concerning, just cause you have to have some worry that maybe worst case he needs surgery this offseason but even in that instance, he'd come back fine next year as a 3B. If he was a pitcher I'd be more worried. I tore my rotator cuff and then DHed for 3 games before I made it to the Dr. It didn't effect my hitting as much as you would think, although I had a little trouble following all the way through on my swing.

[brotherlo38]

I'm not saying the injuries themselves worry me. It's the fact that he seems to always be injured. I don't like to throw injury prone around for guys still in college but it should make you stop and think twice when a guy has injured his ankle twice and now has a shoulder injury, all of this before the age of 22.

[clapdiddy]

I'm not saying the injuries themselves worry me. It's the fact that he seems to always be injured. I don't like to throw injury prone around for guys still in college but it should make you stop and think twice when a guy has injured his ankle twice and now has a shoulder injury, all of this before the age of 22.

This is what scares me. If he's apt to injury in the phase of his life where he's likely in the best shape, what does the future hold?

[Stotle]

Is this a guy who people fixated on earlier in his career, but who simply hasn't progressed quite as much as expected or has injury issues that are likely to impede his talent?

I remember several years ago when Pedro Alvarez was a year away from beng drafted, and everyone was acting like there was no doubt he'd be the no. 1 pick the next year. He disappointed a little the next season, ended up going no. 3, and while he had a decent major league debut partway through last season (.787 OPS), it's not like he set the world on fire, and this year he is struggling.

So, I read all these posts hoping that Rendon is going to fall to us, as if he is some no doubt superstar and we are hoping that other teams will somehow be fooled so that we can pick him. But if he falls, perhaps there's a reason.

I'm just posting this to get some reactions from those who have followed Rendon closely. I don't pretend like I have any idea how good he is or is likely to be.

Alvarez broke his hamate his junior year and wasn't back to close to full strength until the SEC Tournament (really, not even then). His issues are mechanical and, to an extent, pitch-ID. Rendon doesn't have those concerns, though his swing is pretty violent (but controled).

[Stotle]

Though Rendon has been identified as an elite talent for a while now and continues to receive such status, I also believe a healthy dose of skepticism is warranted regarding his possible major league success - just like Alvarez and Gordon.

I also agree that the attention has been on Rendon for so long that folks are slow to believe a few others may be passing him based on merit.

I hope Joe Jordan is able to take the player at the top of his board.

There's also something to be said for the amount of time he has been looked at. If you watch a player closely for three years, you are going to start turning up some things you don't like.

He has done everything well up to this spring. I am fine with folks showing skepticism if they can point to some rationale. If it's the shoulder, fine, but I have yet to see a critique of his actual game that warrants concern over his future as a ML player.

[panick]

I've never seen Rendon play and I don't have the ability to evaluate any player at any level. But I don't see how you can't be leery of a player that seems to have injuries that affect his play for long stretches. Hasn't it been three years in a row that Rendon has had an injury?

After last year's draft, the consensus top three picks were Cole, Purke and Rendon(in various orders). At some point over the winter, it seems that all the evaluators came to the conclusion(seemingly at the same time) that Purke was an injury risk. After that, his draft status dropped like a stone to the point that now some mock drafts have him being taken in the compensatory picks. I know he was "injured" this spring, but why had he already been downgraded because of a POTENTIAL injury, but Rendon has not dropped despite his REAL injuries?

There are supposed to be too many good to great pitching prospects available this year. I would rather have the O's take a chance on one of them rather than a player who might not be able to stay healthy.

[Stotle]

I've never seen Rendon play and I don't have the ability to evaluate any player at any level. But I don't see how you can't be leery of a player that seems to have injuries that affect his play for long stretches. Hasn't it been three years in a row that Rendon has had an injury?

After last year's draft, the consensus top three picks were Cole, Purke and Rendon(in various orders). At some point over the winter, it seems that all the evaluators came to the conclusion(seemingly at the same time) that Purke was an injury risk. After that, his draft status dropped like a stone to the point that now some mock drafts have him being taken in the compensatory picks. I know he was "injured" this spring, but why had he already been downgraded because of a POTENTIAL injury, but Rendon has not dropped despite his REAL injuries?

There are supposed to be too many good to great pitching prospects available this year. I would rather have the O's take a chance on one of them rather than a player who might not be able to stay healthy.

He has had two freak ankle injuries which have caused him to miss summer ball. He was arguably the best offensive player in college baseball the last two springs. This year he has been walked in 28% of his at bats. There is absolutely no one in Rice's line-up that is a threat, and he has gotten little to hit. In addition, a sore shoulder has kept him out of the field and potentially attributed to some loss in bat speed. If he were in pro ball he would have taken time off and rested/rehabbed the shoulder. But he couldn't afford to do that in his draft eligible season, and further I'm sure he wants to try and help his team get back to Regionals.

I can't fathom a reputable mock draft (not that there are many reputable mock drafts, in general -- I can think of about 4) having Rendon in the supplemental-1st rd. This is really getting out of hand...

[tilgaham]

I've been to a few Rice games this year, and not once have I seen Rendon take the field at 3B. His plate recognition is excellent for sure, but to me it looks as if he gets pitched around a bit. The power hasn't been there this year.

I have absolutely no scouting knowledge, and hope I completely eat crow for the rest of my life when I say this, but to me, Rendon doesn't have that "it" factor. I just have a gut feeling from watching him bat that he has a nice, but not earth shattering .360OBP/.800 OPS type career.

[SrMeowMeow]

I've been to a few Rice games this year, and not once have I seen Rendon take the field at 3B. His plate recognition is excellent for sure, but to me it looks as if he gets pitched around a bit. The power hasn't been there this year.

I have absolutely no scouting knowledge, and hope I completely eat crow for the rest of my life when I say this, but to me, Rendon doesn't have that "it" factor. I just have a gut feeling from watching him bat that he has a nice, but not earth shattering .360OBP/.800 OPS type career.

No offense...honestly...but that means NOTHING. The greatest scout in the world couldn't pin an OPS on a prospect within a hundred points with any reasonable chance of being right.

[hoosiers]

This is really getting out of hand...

I think you are over-reacting. Rendon is a premium talent.

Frobby only noted other 3B prospects that were premium talents who have started off their pro careers in less than stellar fashion and, while some now say there were worries about Alvarez's swing when he was drafted, there may have been some minor comments, but the Pedro Alvarez was supposed to be a beast of a hitter almost right away.

Now, even noting Rendon's uber-prospect status, we are hearing that Hultzen may be drafted first and also hearing that Bundy is in the discussion as a very early pick.

I do not see why there is an issue if Frobby asks why Rendon will be so much better than Alvarez or to ask why some guys might be drafted higher now.

At the end of the day, I think we are splitting hairs. I am glad to hear of that Hultzen and Bundy are now being considered among the elite talents as it means there are additional legit top five talents deserving of similar (or at least pretty darn close) prospect status to Cole and Rendon. As long as the Os end up with one of them on draft day, I'll be happy.

[wildcard]

Cole, Rendon, Hultzen, Bundy. The O's should take whichever one is available.