Will Prince Fielder be worth whatever it costs to bring him here?

[DrungoHazewood]

So far Mark Teixeira, Matt Holliday and Miguel Cabrera have made those afraid of LT deals look pretty foolish...

Jtrea, you never seem to understand that its not the first 2-4 years of a deal people are worried about with these guys, its the last 3-4 years.

Of course they look good now. It's the outyears where you're paying a guy $20M a year for their age 35 season where they're worth 1/2 a win that kills you. Of course Trea is a big believer in the Marlins model of success: you do whatever is necessary to try to win RIGHT NOW, then just don't give a crap on the backside. He sees the '96-'2000 Orioles a success story - who cares about the later teams with huge payrolls, an average age of 36 and no farm system, because they made the playoffs two years running!

I'm not so sure the body type argument isn't a mantra-propper either.

Prince Fielder's year 28 season is next year. So far he's been a .926 hitter, and this year is over the 1.000 mark (with 2 already under his belt). At this point in his career, Mo Vaughn was a .887 hitter with zero 1.000 seasons. Fielder has been a better hitter.

Also, Mo Vaughn produced a 1.003, .980, and .993 in his 28-30 seasons. He was solid even after that, at .866 and .864. He got injured in his 33 season, but in his 34 season put up a still respectable .805. That's 6 seasons of solid production - he didn't just fall off a cliff.

Ryan Howard is a similar body type that has put up .881, .931, .859 in his 28-30 seasons. Now in his 31 season, he is right around .800.

Cecil Fielder, a far lesser hitter than his son (but same genes), put up .783, .832, .840, .818, .834 in his 28-32 seasons.

Carlos Delgado was a big fellow too, and he put up 1.134, .948, .955, 1.019, .907, .981, and .909 from 28-34.

I'm not worried about the weight. Big guys don't hold up or perform any better or worse than anyone else. Is Jason Bay fat? Is Chone Figgins? Of course there are risks, but the weight thing isn't a big one in my opinion.

I believe his weight is, at the very least, a significant risk factor. Maybe it's anectodal, but most fat players don't age well and have lots of trouble staying healthy. Delgado wasn't fat, he was just big. Boog Powell had his last good year at 33. Greg Luzinski at 32. Pete Incaviglia never played 120 games in a season after 26. John Kruk's last full season was at 32. Dmitri Young was a good hitter, but was only healthy enough to play 130 games twice after age 27 and three times missed more than half the year. Tony Gwynn was a legendary average hitter, but averaged 115 games a season after age 30, and was a -15 (i.e. abysmal) fielder pretty often through his decline. Fats Fothergill had a .950 OPS at 31, that was his last good year. Prince's daddy had one season after age 28 worth 1+ WAR.

Mo Vaughn was still a decent hitter at 34, but was almost 20 runs below average in the field and on the bases, which actually made him a below-replacement player. His last year better than 1.5 WAR was at age 30.

So I have little doubt that Fielder will be worthwhile early on, but there's a very high risk that he'll catastrophically decline in performance or just not be able to regularly stay on the field. Or both.

[DrungoHazewood]

For those people who do not want to pay Prince Fielder, what is your plan to make this team better? We probably have 20 rbi's at first base this year. Mets, Yankees, and Red sox are out of the bidding since they all have long term first baseman. That is the three largest markets in baseball. Mets will not be any more with madolf scandal. If we go up to 200 million and the Nats outbid, I will be happy. I guess Boog Powell was skinny, Big Papi, and same with Babe Ruth

If you gave Boog Powell a 8 year/$200M deal following his age 27 season that would have gotten you:

- One MVP-level season

- One 30-homer season

- Three seasons of 130+ games

- One 100 RBI season

- 925 games played (or 115 games per year paid)

- Two years with <100 games played and an OPS under .700

- 18 WAR, or $11.1M per marginal win

- One 5 WAR season

Is that worth it? One excellent year, 2-3 years as a average first baseman, and 3-4 years as a mediocre/bad/hurt player.

[Stotle]

I can't imagine Fielder will get 8 years. I think he is well situated to get six -- potentially with some options.

[thundercleetz]

Not sure if this has been posted, but here is a quote from Jayson Starks' Rumblings and Grumblings column from today:

Their 'Free Agent Meter' is running

Fielder is a Scott Boras client who already has priced himself beyond the Brewers' means. So the only questions on this guy are where he'll fit and whether he can possibly approach the eight-year, $200 million sticker Boras is supposedly ready to slap on his windshield.

If Fielder were chiseled a little more like Julius Peppers than Albert Haynesworth, length of deal might not be as massive an obstacle for a proven masher who will reach the market at age 27. But in Prince's case, "his body is an issue," one NL exec said. "It has been since high school, and it always will be."

So it's tough to see even a desperate team giving this fellow eight years, particularly a National League team. But Boras has worked that sort of inconceivable magic before.

"I think Prince gets [Adrian] Gonzalez or [Mark] Teixeira money," said an official of one club. "And I think he gets it from the Cubs or Orioles."

[blid]

MacPhail is gonna stick it to his old team!

[JTrea81]

MacPhail is gonna stick it to his old team!

If he's still around after the season.

He may want to leave and do something else.

[JTrea81]

I can't imagine Fielder will get 8 years. I think he is well situated to get six -- potentially with some options.

7/175 from the Nats.

[scOtt]

Some may view as a crippling deal, others view it as taking a chance to win.

This franchise has already been crippled by its inaction.

We've enured 4 seasons of losing to develop this core. Don't you want to see us try to have that investment pay off?

The alternative which is not realistic as long as Angelos owns the team, is to tear down that core and rebuild for several years down the road, likely ensuring us of 15+ straight losing seasons.

[The Maestro]

7/175 from the Nats.

Us in a bidding war with our neighbors, that would be interesting.

[Stotle]

7/175 from the Nats.

Lunacy.

[Slappy]

Of course they look good now. It's the outyears where you're paying a guy $20M a year for their age 35 season where they're worth 1/2 a win that kills you. Of course Trea is a big believer in the Marlins model of success: you do whatever is necessary to try to win RIGHT NOW, then just don't give a crap on the backside. He sees the '96-'2000 Orioles a success story - who cares about the later teams with huge payrolls, an average age of 36 and no farm system, because they made the playoffs two years running!

The 1996-2000 Orioles *were* a success story. They won the division once and made the playoffs twice. They should have made it 3 times, the 2008 team was far better than their final record.

A statement like this makes me wonder exactly what you define as success?

I believe his weight is, at the very least, a significant risk factor. Maybe it's anectodal, but most fat players don't age well and have lots of trouble staying healthy. Delgado wasn't fat, he was just big. Boog Powell had his last good year at 33. Greg Luzinski at 32. Pete Incaviglia never played 120 games in a season after 26. John Kruk's last full season was at 32. Dmitri Young was a good hitter, but was only healthy enough to play 130 games twice after age 27 and three times missed more than half the year. Tony Gwynn was a legendary average hitter, but averaged 115 games a season after age 30, and was a -15 (i.e. abysmal) fielder pretty often through his decline. Fats Fothergill had a .950 OPS at 31, that was his last good year. Prince's daddy had one season after age 28 worth 1+ WAR.

Mo Vaughn was still a decent hitter at 34, but was almost 20 runs below average in the field and on the bases, which actually made him a below-replacement player. His last year better than 1.5 WAR was at age 30.

So I have little doubt that Fielder will be worthwhile early on, but there's a very high risk that he'll catastrophically decline in performance or just not be able to regularly stay on the field. Or both.

Even bowing to the flawed gospel of WAR, you poked some holes.

Now, what's your solution?

[DrungoHazewood]

The 1996-2000 Orioles *were* a success story. They won the division once and made the playoffs twice. They should have made it 3 times, the 2008 team was far better than their final record.

A statement like this makes me wonder exactly what you define as success?

The O's were fun to watch for a couple years. I enjoyed them. But it was a scorched earth team. By 1998 and 1999 there was nothing left, the payroll was sky high, the team was old and the farm was barren. They sold their souls to the devil for a couple of playoff appearances, and the '96 team was really lucky that 88 wins let them play in October.

Success can be the 1996-97 Orioles, but when you don't win, when the season ends with Armando Benitez whiplash, it's pretty tough to swallow that's it. It's a non-sustainable team, over budget, with no investment in the future, no young core, nothing really.

Even bowing to the flawed gospel of WAR, you poked some holes.

Now, what's your solution?

Don't sign fat players to $175M deals!

I'd rather have a guy like Alonso at first than Fielder. Because for the price of Fielder you can pay Alonso still go out and sign a $12M second baseman and a $10M starter. Or you find a cheap second baseman and sign an ace. Or you sign a Japanese starter for $5M and go sign a $15M star who doesn't have a BMI of 59.

[JTrea81]

Lunacy.

Nobody though Werth would get 7/126.

The Lerners are loaded and love Boras clients.

[JTrea81]

The O's were fun to watch for a couple years. I enjoyed them. But it was a scorched earth team. By 1998 and 1999 there was nothing left, the payroll was sky high, the team was old and the farm was barren. They sold their souls to the devil for a couple of playoff appearances, and the '96 team was really lucky that 88 wins let them play in October.

Success can be the 1996-97 Orioles, but when you don't win, when the season ends with Armando Benitez whiplash, it's pretty tough to swallow that's it. It's a non-sustainable team, over budget, with no investment in the future, no young core, nothing really.

Don't sign fat players to $175M deals!

I'd rather have a guy like Alonso at first than Fielder. Because for the price of Fielder you can pay Alonso still go out and sign a $12M second baseman and a $10M starter. Or you find a cheap second baseman and sign an ace. Or you sign a Japanese starter for $5M and go sign a $15M star who doesn't have a BMI of 59.

Would you rather have Jose Reyes and Alonso or Fielder and Hardy?

[DrungoHazewood]

Would you rather have Jose Reyes and Alonso or Fielder and Hardy?

If those are my only choices, Reyes and Alonso. But I'd probably just as soon have Alonso, Hardy, and the flexibility of an additional $10-15M a year to do something else with.