4th Round - Kyle Simon - RHP - University of Arizona

[Frobby]

I have basically zero interest in drafting pitchers who have questionable odds of starting, unless it's someone like Matt Purke where the upside is considerable. A relief career is a failed pick in my mind. I mean, the same arm sees his value cut by like 75% if he can't start.

A 4th round pick has maybe a 35% chance of ever playing a game in the major leagues. If you have any career at all, you are a success.

The Orioles, by the way, only have had 20% of their 4th round picks reach the majors. The most recent, and most successful, was Brad Bergesen (3.4 WAR).

[Tony-OH]

BA 183. Seems to sit 86-89 with peak at 93 - deception in delivery. Hopefully, some things JJ sees to be corrected ... or JJ was asked to get some bp help quickly.

Interesting pick .... probably one of the weaker write-ups in a JJ top 5 pick in a long time, IMO.

Jordan thinks some of those low velocity numbers were because of his workload. He would pitch on Fridays and be brought back to pitch some on Tuesday's. He thinks there's more velocity than 86-89 once he gets on a pro schedule.

[SrMeowMeow]

A 4th round pick has maybe a 35% chance of ever playing a game in the major leagues. If you have any career at all, you are a success.

The Orioles, by the way, only have had 20% of their 4th round picks reach the majors. The most recent, and most successful, was Brad Bergesen (3.4 WAR).

I get that perspective, but you can't just look at hit rate. A workhorse starter on draft day who's moved to the bullpen a few years down the line and has a solid career as a reliever is very different than a college reliever who's drafted as a reliever, clearly doesn't have the tools or endurance to start, and has the same career. I would be happy with the first pick and not the second.

[LookinUp]

Jordan thinks some of those low velocity numbers were because of his workload. He would pitch on Fridays and be brought back to pitch some on Tuesday's. He thinks there's more velocity than 86-89 once he gets on a pro schedule.

This is one place where scouting directors earn their money. If he's an 86-89 guy who relies on pitchability, his upside is questionable at best. If he's a 89-92 guy who has pitchability, he's a different prospect. Will be an interesting guy to follow.

[Stotle]

I don't like the arm action for a starter, but he has the size to start. It wouldn't shock me if the velo went up some. He's going to get a little stronger, too.

[Conway12]

According to Jeff Zrebiec Kyle Simon signs

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