4th Round - Kyle Simon - RHP - University of Arizona

[weams]

http://www.arizonawildcats.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/051611aaa.html

[Moose Milligan]

What if you can get them later? That waiting game is all part of the skill of the draft. The one thing the Orioles are pretty good at is knowing where guys will fall. It's way too early to get excited or upset at this draft so far in my opinion.

Blaarrgggh!! Never too early to be upset! The whole draft is a bust!! Blarrrrggghhh!!

[hoosiers]

No...I don't really care.

If they are signability question marks, that shouldn't be the issue. These guys are consensus top 50-75 guys...At this point in the draft, you are getting great value.

Spend the money and get the best players.

Value is about getting a top arm at a good price - not blowing out $1.5M bonuses in rounds 2-6.

There is lots of deception in the draft and I am sure if you compiled the top 200 across the draft boards in MLB you would get at least 500 names.

We have a good scouting department and a scouting director who is working his seventh draft. Let's evaluate the total body of work.

[ChaosLex]

Blaarrgggh!! Never too early to be upset! The whole draft is a bust!! Blarrrrggghhh!!

To arms! :rofl:

[Sports Guy]

Value is about getting a top arm at a good price - not blowing out $1.5M bonuses in rounds 2-6.

There is lots of deception in the draft and I am sure if you compiled the top 200 across the draft boards in MLB you would get at least 500 names.

We have a good scouting department and a scouting director who is working his seventh draft. Let's evaluate the total body of work.

We do? That's news to me.

I agree what you say about the top 200 lists...But most of the top 100 lists are pretty similar and when there are top 100 guys sitting there when you are drafting higher than that, grab them.

[LookinUp]

Blaarrgggh!! Never too early to be upset! The whole draft is a bust!! Blarrrrggghhh!!

It's easy to bust on SG like this, but the same thing comes up every single year and how exactly has that turned out for Baltimore so far? Some of these guys will be good picks, but we annually end up with Tim Bascom types when higher upside guys are available. It's well-established.

Just once, I'd like to see the O's go real big outside of their annual top 5 pick, and I want them to do it with a very highly regarded player (e.g., not Coffey). Who was the last one? Arrieta?

[Sports Guy]

It's easy to bust on SG like this, but the same thing comes up every single year and how exactly has that turned out for Baltimore so far? Some of these guys will be good picks, but we annually end up with Tim Bascom types when higher upside guys are available. It's well-established.

Just once, I'd like to see the O's go real big outside of their annual top 5 pick, and I want them to do it with a very highly regarded player (e.g., not Coffey). Who was the last one? Arrieta?

Outside of Arrieta, how many good picks have we had in rounds 2-5 in the last 4 years? It seems like these rounds end up poorly. Maybe Narron is a good pick?

Lots of Kyle Hudson guys it seems.

[LookinUp]

Outside of Arrieta, how many good picks have we had in rounds 2-5 in the last 4 years? It seems like these rounds end up poorly. Maybe Narron is a good pick?

Lots of Kyle Hudson guys it seems.

Still too soon to tell on Avery and Hoes and Townsend, but the answer is not many that have actually produced anything.

I know not every pick can be a big hitter, but we seem to draft guys that have the upside of #4/5 starters or Hendrickson types of relievers all the time too. What I do like about at least one of the pitchers today is he's a power arm. That should be a target more often, IMO.

[Sports Guy]

Still too soon to tell on Avery and Hoes and Townsend, but the answer is not many that have actually produced anything.

I know not every pick can be a big hitter, but we seem to draft guys that have the upside of #4/5 starters or Hendrickson types of relievers all the time too. What I do like about at least one of the pitchers today is he's a power arm. That should be a target more often, IMO.

I forgot about Hoes..Thanks for that.

[LookinUp]

I forgot about Hoes..Thanks for that.

I haven't given up hope on the other two either.

[Frobby]

Outside of Arrieta, how many good picks have we had in rounds 2-5 in the last 4 years? It seems like these rounds end up poorly. Maybe Narron is a good pick?

Lots of Kyle Hudson guys it seems.

What defines who was a good pick?

2007: 24 of 150 players chosen in rounds 2-5 have made the majors so far. Top producers are Stanton (2:76) 4.6 WAR, Rzyzepczynski (5:175) and Arrieta (5:159) 1.8 WAR.

2008: 10 of 150 players chosen in rounds 2-5 have made the majors so far. Top producers are Hudson (5:150) 4.2 WAR, Avila (5:163) 3.0 WAR and Espinosa (3:87) 1.8 WAR.

2009: 4 of 150 players chosen in rounds 2-5 have made the majors so far. Top producer is Louis Coleman (5:152) 0.4 WAR . All others are negative.

2010: 0 of 150 players chosen in rounds 2-5 have made the majors so far.

Obviously, a lot more guys will make the majors eventually. If you go back to 2002, for example, 46 of 150 eventually played in The Show, 32 of whom had a positive WAR.

[Sports Guy]

What defines who was a good pick?

2007: 24 of 150 players chosen in rounds 2-5 have made the majors so far. Top producers are Stanton (2:76) 4.6 WAR, Rzyzepczynski (5:175) and Arrieta (5:159) 1.8 WAR.

2008: 10 of 150 players chosen in rounds 2-5 have made the majors so far. Top producers are Hudson (5:150) 4.2 WAR, Avila (5:163) 3.0 WAR and Espinosa (3:87) 1.8 WAR.

2009: 4 of 150 players chosen in rounds 2-5 have made the majors so far. Top producer is Louis Coleman (5:152) 0.4 WAR . All others are negative.

2010: 0 of 150 players chosen in rounds 2-5 have made the majors so far.

Obviously, a lot more guys will make the majors eventually. If you go back to 2002, for example, 46 of 150 eventually played in The Show, 32 of whom had a positive WAR.

Forget about reaching majors for a moment.

How many of those guys are moving up well through the minors and showing good performances so that we can trade them?

[Frobby]

Forget about reaching majors for a moment.

How many of those guys are moving up well through the minors and showing good performances so that we can trade them?

2007: We had no 2nd/3rd round pick. Bascom is a bust. Arrieta is in the majors.

2008: Avery, Hoes, Hudson, Miclat.

2009: Givens, Townsend, Henry, Tolliver

2010: We had no 2nd round pick. Klein, Mummey, Narron.

So, we had 13 picks in rounds 2-5. It sort of depends on your criteria as to who is doing well. I'd say Klein and Townsend are doing well; Hoes and Avery are accelerated to be in AA at 21, but performance is iffy; Mummey is doing OK. Hudson and Miclat are probably going nowhere. With the others, it may be too soon to say, but there's no evidence that they are more likely than not to succeed.

What is harder to know is, what are the other 29 organizations' 2-5 draft picks doing?

[SrMeowMeow]

I have basically zero interest in drafting pitchers who have questionable odds of starting, unless it's someone like Matt Purke where the upside is considerable. A relief career is a failed pick in my mind. I mean, the same arm sees his value cut by like 75% if he can't start.

[Sports Guy]

I have basically zero interest in drafting pitchers who have questionable odds of starting, unless it's someone like Matt Purke where the upside is considerable. A relief career is a failed pick in my mind. I mean, the same arm sees his value cut by like 75% if he can't start.

And you could get a similar arm as a reliever later in the draft, as they have done.