Posnanski: Adam Jones the next defensive catfight

[Sports Guy]

I think there is a middle ground here. There is no way Jones is as terrible as the defensive metrics would indicate, but I will admit he does miss some balls he should catch. Ultimately, I have to believe Jones is an average CFer. Likewise, it just may be possible that Jeter is not the worst defensive shortstop to ever play the game...nah.

Yea, i would agree with this concept...I do not feel he is as bad as the defensive metrics lead you to believe.

But he also isn't a guy that I would say is a plus defender. His reputation definitely exceeds his actual ability.

[Frobby]

The pople who think their eyes don't lie should take an eyetest. Leave Jones out of it and rank the top ten defensive CF in the AL besides him. It would be interesting to see how much agreement there is.

Speaking for myself, I don't see enough of the all the other CFs to be able to rank them. Best I can tell, these are the starting CF in the AL this year (not listed in order of any defensive metric):

Curtis Granderson NYY

Jacoby Ellsbury - BOS

Denard Span - MIN

Melky Cabrera - KCR

Adam Jones - BAL

Peter Bourjos - LAA

Coco Crisp - OAK

Austin Jackson - DET

Michael Brantley - CLE

BJ Upton - TBR

Rajai Davis - TOR

Alex Rios - CWS

Josh Hamilton - TEX

Franklin Gutierrez - SEA

I suggest everyone do a blind ranking of who on this list is better or worse than Jones defensively, without looking at defensive metrics, and let's see if there is any consensus at all.

[El Gordo]

Speaking for myself, I don't see enough of the all the other CFs to be able to rank them. Best I can tell, these are the starting CF in the AL this year (not listed in order of any defensive metric):

Curtis Granderson NYY

Jacoby Ellsbury - BOS

Denard Span - MIN

Melky Cabrera - KCR

Adam Jones - BAL

Peter Bourjos - LAA

Coco Crisp - OAK

Austin Jackson - DET

Michael Brantley - CLE

BJ Upton - TBR

Rajai Davis - TOR

Alex Rios - CWS

Josh Hamilton - TEX

Franklin Gutierrez - SEA

I suggest everyone do a blind ranking of these without looking at defensive metrics, and let's see if there is any consensus at all.

Curtis Granderson NYY #7

Jacoby Ellsbury - BOS #6

Denard Span - MIN #4

Melky Cabrera - KCR #8

Adam Jones - BAL #12

Peter Bourjos - LAA #2

Coco Crisp - OAK#3

Austin Jackson - DET #5

Michael Brantley - CLE

BJ Upton - TBR #10

Rajai Davis - TOR #11

Alex Rios - CWS #13

Josh Hamilton - TEX #9

Franklin Gutierrez - SEA#1

It should be pointed out that Guteriez has been playing a lot of RF this year, and Hamilton a lot in LF.

[fansince71]

Curtis Granderson NYY #7

Jacoby Ellsbury - BOS #6

Denard Span - MIN #4

Melky Cabrera - KCR #8

Adam Jones - BAL #12

Peter Bourjos - LAA #2

Coco Crisp - OAK#3

Austin Jackson - DET #5

Michael Brantley - CLE

BJ Upton - TBR #10

Rajai Davis - TOR #11

Alex Rios - CWS #13

Josh Hamilton - TEX #9

Franklin Gutierrez - SEA#1

It should be pointed out that Guteriez has been playing a lot of RF this year, and Hamilton a lot in LF.

Huh? Doesn't that dude named Suzuki play right?

[Gurgi]

I dont know what other people are looking at but the "eye" test for me shows Jones is pretty bad. But I guess someone has to be the worst defensive CF in baseball. Glad to know we have that position locked up.

[El Gordo]

Huh? Doesn't that dude named Suzuki play right?

You're correct. He last played RF in 2008. He hasn't been seeing as much time in CF, because of his bat, and injury IIRC, but IMO he is the best defensive OF in the game.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I think there is a middle ground here. There is no way Jones is as terrible as the defensive metrics would indicate, but I will admit he does miss some balls he should catch. Ultimately, I have to believe Jones is an average CFer. Likewise, it just may be possible that Jeter is not the worst defensive shortstop to ever play the game...nah.

Yeah, I think you're right on here. I do believe we are moving forward with improving accuracy though. Looking at the aways splits may be a pretty reasonable way of gaining more insight (not unlike offensive statistics). Jones's away splits says he's been an approximate minus 3 runs in range rate over his career (plus UZR overall). His home splits tell a far worse story (primarily range, but rewarded some by arm). That could mean Jones has difficulty in OPACY or something is wrong with the park factor adjustments......or both. Still, that tells me it's a pretty fair bet that Jones has had at least slightly below average range and his past trends and very poor performance this year may be an indication he's getting worse/worse relative to the pool of current centerfielders.

For all the Jeter haters, the guy is 37 and still playing ss well past his prime now and he's only an approx -5 runs (overall) in UZR for his career. Consider UZR doesn't even consider flyballs (someting Jeter is actually pretty good at). Some of is poorer UZR numbers of the past were re-adjusted...at least once. His average UZR/150 has been a minus 10 at home and neutral on the road. Old Yankee Stadium was a notorousily fast/hard infield. Was he a below average ss rangewise.... yes. Overrated....certainly. It's likely he wasn't nearly as bad people think. Even Bill James likely overstated his case here.

If only we had Cal's UZR for comparison. I can't count how many times I cursed or punched something when a ball got by Mr Positioning. Not to mention tipping pitches. I wonder how many of the most reasonable and objective members would be ranting if they showed Cal's UZR worse than Jeter's.

[O'sFanThruJune]

I suggest everyone do a blind ranking of who on this list is better or worse than Jones defensively, without looking at defensive metrics, and let's see if there is any consensus at all.

I haven't seen enough to have many opinions, but Bourjos impressed me quite a bit when we saw him last year. I know Gutierrez has a great reputation. I'm pretty sure Hamilton was mediocre enough that he's no longer in CF.

[El Gordo]

Yeah, I think you're right on here. I do believe we are moving forward with improving accuracy though. Looking at the aways splits may be a pretty reasonable way of gaining more insight (not unlike offensive statistics). Jones's away splits says he's been an approximate minus 3 runs in range rate over his career (plus UZR overall). His home splits tell a far worse story (primarily range, but rewarded some by arm). That could mean Jones has difficulty in OPACY or something is wrong with the park factor adjustments......or both. Still, that tells me it's a pretty fair bet that Jones has had at least slightly below average range and his past trends and very poor performance this year may be an indication he's getting worse/worse relative to the pool of current centerfielders.

For all the Jeter haters, the guy is 37 and still playing ss well past his prime now and he's only an approx -5 runs (overall) in UZR for his career. Consider UZR doesn't even consider flyballs (someting Jeter is actually pretty good at). Some of is poorer UZR numbers of the past were re-adjusted...at least once. His average UZR/150 has been a minus 10 at home and neutral on the road. Old Yankee Stadium was a notorousily fast/hard infield. Was he a below average ss rangewise.... yes. Overrated....certainly. It's likely he wasn't nearly as bad people think. Even Bill James likely overstated his case here.

If only we had Cal's UZR for comparison. I can't count how many times I cursed or punched something when a ball got by Mr Positioning. Not to mention tipping pitches. I wonder how many of the most reasonable and objective members would be ranting if they showed Cal's UZR worse than Jeter's.

Rtot and UZR aren't always in complete agreement, but they usually reflect the same trends. Jeter in 17 years at SS has an Rtot of - 133 with an average of -8. Cal in 17 years at SS has an Rtot of 176 for an average of 10. I doubt they could be in that much disagreement.

[SrMeowMeow]

So many misconceptions about UZR (not just here, everywhere). It's crazy.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Rtot and UZR aren't always in complete agreement, but they usually reflect the same trends. Jeter in 17 years at SS has an Rtot of - 133 with an average of -8. Cal in 17 years at SS has an Rtot of 176 for an average of 10. I doubt they could be in that much disagreement.

Rtot is based on number of total plays made. I'm sure you can recognize the obvious flaw(s) with that. As I recall, James at one time was going to develop and adjusted Range Factor for historical comparisons. Probably better than what we've got, but not sure whether that project ever took off.

[El Gordo]

Rtot is based on number of total plays made. I'm sure you can recognize the obvious flaw(s) with that. As I recall, James at one time was going to develop and adjusted Range Factor for historical comparisons. Probably better than what we've got, but not sure whether that project ever took off.

They all have flaws. But they all tend to agree on who is really good and who is really bad. Cal was a really good defensive SS and Jeter not so much. Do you really want to argue with that? Do you think that the difference between how UZR and Rtot crunches numbers, accounts for a difference of 18 RS between two players?

[CA-ORIOLE]

They all have flaws. But they all tend to agree on who is really good and who is eally bad. Cal was a really good defensive SS and Jeter not so much. Do you really want to argue with that?

So all flaws are the same? RTOT/RF is equal to UZR? Of course it's debatable, especially when Jeters UZR (particularly his away UZR) says he's basically average. I suspect Cal was probably better (based on his arm) but not by a wide margin.

[DrungoHazewood]

I think there is a middle ground here. There is no way Jones is as terrible as the defensive metrics would indicate, but I will admit he does miss some balls he should catch. Ultimately, I have to believe Jones is an average CFer. Likewise, it just may be possible that Jeter is not the worst defensive shortstop to ever play the game...nah.

It's possible the metrics are off, sure. But when all the metrics are in agreement? Even ones that approach the analysis from completely different perspectives? It's highly unlikely. It's like saying a guy who bats cleanup for a good team has 80 RBI every year, but arguing he's still a good hitter. RBI are a very flawed metric, but it's almost impossible to be a real good hitter on a good team who only gets 80 of them every year.

I don't think we need to at all, because multiple baseball people have came out and said that many GM's put very little stock in these metrics as there are not accurate as of yet. You pick up the phone and call 29 other GM's and ask them is Jones is below-average, average or above average in centerfield and I think the majority will say above average with others saying that they would LOVE to have him.

You can believe that if you want. You can choose to disbelieve the metrics and believe that most GMs just eyeball it on defense. But you do that at your own risk.

You have no evidence that most MLB GMs think Adam Jones is an above average CFer. We do know that Tom Tango's fan survey has him listed as a below-average CFer. We know that all the metrics have him as below-average. The only evidence we have that he's a good centerfielder are from sporadic anecdotal reports.

[El Gordo]

The basic idea is, if you have three metrics say: BA, RBI, and OPS, in agreement about a players good hitting, even though they reflect different aspects of offensive ability, it would be safe to say that player is a pretty good hitter. Most GM's have access to much more differentiated defensive metric systems, that aren't available to us, because of proprietary reasons.