Posnanski: Adam Jones the next defensive catfight

[CA-ORIOLE]

The basic idea is, if you have three metrics say: BA, RBI, and OPS, in agreement about a players good hitting, even though they reflect different aspects of offensive ability, it would be safe to say that player is a pretty good hitter. Most GM's have access to much more differentiated defensive metric systems, that aren't available to us, because of proprietary reasons.

I'm not sure this is directed at me or not. If it's some sort of analogy to our previous discussion, I'd argue "OPS" isn't in agreement and that OPS needs to be adjusted for relevance.

[jonesing4pie]

I am one that believes Jones is hurting us some in CF but not as much as the stats show. I feel like his overall issue is that he is a long strider who is fast but not overly quick. This comes into play on the base paths as well. He doesn't seem amazingly fast to first even when he runs hard (though I'd like to know him time) and is obviously not a great base stealer as well. Alot of people probably say instincts/reads but I think its the lack of quickness more than people actually think.

[El Gordo]

I'm not sure this is directed at me or not. If it's some sort of analogy to our previous discussion, I'd argue "OPS" isn't in agreement and that OPS needs to be adjusted for relevance.

It wasn't directed at you. It was meant to reinforce Drungo's point. But I don't understand what you are talking about here. Player X has a high OPS. He has a high number of RBI's and he has a high BA. OPS is the best measure of the three, IMO, but it isn't the only measure. A guy could have a high OBP and a high BA, a mediocre OPS, and be a good hitter. When BA, OPS and RBI's are all high, I fail to see how he could be a poor hitter.

[baltfan]

In defense of Jones, there is the possibility that he is rapidly improving defensively. He came up a SS and is still a work in progress in CF. Most agree that defensive stats should not be looked at over the course of a single season or half of a season. Over the course of his career, Jones' defensive stats are putrid. But, given his relative inexperience at the position, this years numbers could be an outlier. I watch almost every game and he is noticeably better than last year defensively. I know that the naked eye can lie, but I think you would be hard-pressed to find anyone, including those that believe adamantly in the defensive stats, that wouldn't say that Jones appears to be taking better routes and seems to be getting to more balls this year.

[crissfan172]

I'm not surprised the numbers say he's below average. He gets terrible reads.

[TradeAngelos]

I tend to agree with this line of thinking....

In defense of Jones, there is the possibility that he is rapidly improving defensively. He came up a SS and is still a work in progress in CF. Most agree that defensive stats should not be looked at over the course of a single season or half of a season. Over the course of his career, Jones' defensive stats are putrid. But, given his relative inexperience at the position, this years numbers could be an outlier. I watch almost every game and he is noticeably better than last year defensively. I know that the naked eye can lie, but I think you would be hard-pressed to find anyone, including those that believe adamantly in the defensive stats, that wouldn't say that Jones appears to be taking better routes and seems to be getting to more balls this year.

Why doesn't someone post here every time Jones doesn't get to a ball he is "supposed to". I see some but not that many.

[ccbird]

The only thing I'm pretty confident saying is he is not an above average CF. I don't watch enough of the other CFs to do a fair player to player comparison but I watch enough to know that in general Jones isn't a + defender. He very well could be below average.

Note: This is simply my opinion based on the "eye test".

[Remember The Alomar]

Everything I know about baseball has been shattered...the...the...the...FAN CAVE PEOPLE ARE WROOONNGGG!!!!!!!!!!

[El Gordo]

In defense of Jones, there is the possibility that he is rapidly improving defensively. He came up a SS and is still a work in progress in CF. Most agree that defensive stats should not be looked at over the course of a single season or half of a season. Over the course of his career, Jones' defensive stats are putrid. But, given his relative inexperience at the position, this years numbers could be an outlier. I watch almost every game and he is noticeably better than last year defensively. I know that the naked eye can lie, but I think you would be hard-pressed to find anyone, including those that believe adamantly in the defensive stats, that wouldn't say that Jones appears to be taking better routes and seems to be getting to more balls this year.

Better than what? He may be better than Jones '10, but defensive metrics gauge players against others' play at the same position. They show Jones as having an outlier season in '08 and then steadily declining since then.

[eddie83]

I don't think he is an above average CF but I also don't think he is brutal. His offense makes him an acceptable CF for me. Without his offense his CF value would be below average.

[El Gordo]

I don't think he is an above average CF but I also don't think he is brutal. His offense makes him an acceptable CF for me. Without his offense his CF value would be below average.

Much rather see him in LF. He'd be a plus defender and his bat would play fine there. We coulod sign Coco Crisp next fall.

[CA-ORIOLE]

It wasn't directed at you. It was meant to reinforce Drungo's point. But I don't understand what you are talking about here. Player X has a high OPS. He has a high number of RBI's and he has a high BA. OPS is the best measure of the three, IMO, but it isn't the only measure. A guy could have a high OBP and a high BA, a mediocre OPS, and be a good hitter. When BA, OPS and RBI's are all high, I fail to see how he could be a poor hitter.

I don't know about "poor" but I'm sure you understand that a hitter could be great in Coors drastically worse in PETCO. RBI's could be good/bad depending on other variables. If it wasn't directed at me, that's fine. You can debate Drungo.

[crissfan172]

Much rather see him in LF. He'd be a plus defender and his bat would play fine there. We coulod sign Coco Crisp next fall.

I still understand why moving Jones to LF will make him a better defender. Doesn't everyone pretty much agree that Pie and Patterson were better in CF than LF? Why do people assume that Jones won't have the same problems they did?

[El Gordo]

I don't know about "poor" but I'm sure you understand that a hitter could be great in Coors drastically worse in PETCO. RBI's could be good/bad depending on other variables. If it wasn't directed at me, that's fine. You can debate Drungo.

I'm not debating Drungo I am agreeing with him, and I won't bother to continue debate someone, whose benighted opinion is that Jeter could be a comparable fielder to Cal, even though his TZ numbers show an 18 RS per year, difference between the two. The difference might be more or less than UZR but it would still be significant :rolleyestf:

[DrungoHazewood]

I think there is a middle ground here. There is no way Jones is as terrible as the defensive metrics would indicate, but I will admit he does miss some balls he should catch. Ultimately, I have to believe Jones is an average CFer. Likewise, it just may be possible that Jeter is not the worst defensive shortstop to ever play the game...nah.

I still understand why moving Jones to LF will make him a better defender. Doesn't everyone pretty much agree that Pie and Patterson were better in CF than LF? Why do people assume that Jones won't have the same problems they did?

Because the vast majority of center fielders become better left fielders. Many excellent teams actually have two center field-quality outfielders and play one in left. It's just logical - left field is usually the position of last resort for outfielders who don't have the range for center or the arm for right. The standards are quite low, so even a decent center fielder is going to be far better than an average LFer.

Look at Luke Scott. I don't think anyone thinks of him as a really good fielder, but for most of his career he's been about average in LF. Does anyone really doubt that Jones would be better than Scott in left?