Nats spend $16.5 million on the draft?!?

[Stotle]

Bell, for instance, is not worth anywhere near $5M.

Most of baseball would disagree, but the issue is probably more with the idea of "worth" in this context than your appraisal of his talent level.

[Stotle]

The Orioles are not bad at spending money to get the guys they've drafted to sign. Wade Townsend excepted, they usually get their guys, including a fair number of overslots.

But when the Rays had as many first/supplemental picks this year as the O's have had cumulatively since 2004 you get to the real problem. They can't spend much much more without more picks. All of their eggs are in one basket, so no matter how good that basket is it can't compete with the five or six or eight baskets the other AL East teams have.

And I know I'm preaching to the choir here.

That was my largest issue with the draft strategy. I understand what Baltimore put together, and I think Jordan did a remarkable job executing his plan. The same, I can't help but think the context of the draft could have been more appropriately taken into account. When you see Boston/Toronto/Tampa with a bunch of picks, you know the potential is there for them to add a TON of talent. Then, you have Day 1 of the draft wrapping with all three of those teams going EXTREMELY aggressive in their 1st/Supp-1st picks. Very few "slot" or "cheap" targets.

I think it would have been cool to see Baltimore respond to that by being extremely aggressive to start Day 2. Something like:

2:4 Dillon Howard/Daniel Norris (ended up with Cleveland ($1.85MM)/Toronto($2MM))

3:4 Johnny Eiermann (ended up with Tampa ($550K))

4:4 Safe college guy (could probably have been Mike Wright or Kyle Simon)

5:4 Jake Cave (ended up with Yankees ($825K))

6:4 Nick Delmonico or Trent Howard ($1.5MM or $125K)

7:4 Trent Howard or Cody Kukuk (ended up with Boston($800K)) if Howard taken at 6:4

8:4 John Ruettiger

9:4 Devin Jones

10:4 Tyler Wilson

This would have taken away the heavy skew to college arms and created a little more balance in the draft portfolio. The total increase in cost would have been, in my opinion, quite reasonable (about $1.8 MM). You'd be left with:

Assuming Kukuk and no Delmonico

3 HS arms

4 College arms

2 HS Pos players

1 College Pos player

Still a focus on college arms, but a little more upside for less than $2MM more. You could also boot the Howard pick and take Delmonico and Kukuk for a total increase of just over $3MM and a little more overall upside.

I think in a vacuum Baltimore's draft was very strong. When compared to what Tampa, Toronto and Boston landed, the net is probably greater distance between "them" and Baltimore in measured Minor League talent.

[jabba72]

Stotle, do you think Baltimore was able to draft compensation level talent in the later rounds relative to the rest of the AL East drafted with their compensation picks? Basically, did we close the gap for only having one 1st rounder? At all? Or did the rest of the AL East pretty much clean up talent wise on their picks.

[Stotle]

Stotle, do you think Baltimore was able to draft compensation level talent in the later rounds relative to the rest of the AL East drafted with their compensation picks? Basically, did we close the gap for only having one 1st rounder? At all? Or did the rest of the AL East pretty much clean up talent wise on their picks.

Norris, Howard, Eiermann, Maples, Kukuk, Delmonico, Golden, Dunston, and several more were all considered to be "compensation level" in some respect, with many asking for more than supp-1st money.

[Dain45]

Daniel Norris was the one guy I was praying we would land. I thought he would go in the 10-20 range. I was shocked he fell. Im happy with our selections but add Norris with Bundy and Demonico and it puts us over the top. Same goes last year for AJ Cole. I thought we should have been all over him as well. Our system would look great right now with Cole, Norris, and Bundy in the low minors. Speaking of Cole, does anyone know what he is doing this year? How do his numbers look? The Nats, Pirates, and Royals are really pulling away from everyone else when it comes to spending the last couple years. There is absolutely no reason we shouldnt be taking the same stance esp. if we are not getting involved in the latin market.

[Stotle]

Daniel Norris was the one guy I was praying we would land. I thought he would go in the 10-20 range. I was shocked he fell. Im happy with our selections but add Norris with Bundy and Demonico and it puts us over the top. Same goes last year for AJ Cole. I thought we should have been all over him as well. Our system would look great right now with Cole, Norris, and Bundy in the low minors. Speaking of Cole, does anyone know what he is doing this year? How do his numbers look? The Nats, Pirates, and Royals are really pulling away from everyone else when it comes to spending the last couple years. There is absolutely no reason we shouldnt be taking the same stance esp. if we are not getting involved in the latin market.

Cole is throwing very well. He is bulking up his trunk/core and has seen a bump in velocity (mantainance of velocity, rather than peak, but a bump nonetheless). From evaluators, also, he has matured a lot over the last year and is more professional in his actions on the mound and off it. It has been a very strong first full year for AJ in the Sally.

[BrunoCherrytown]

Stotle, do you think Baltimore was able to draft compensation level talent in the later rounds relative to the rest of the AL East drafted with their compensation picks? Basically, did we close the gap for only having one 1st rounder? At all? Or did the rest of the AL East pretty much clean up talent wise on their picks.

I believe we can take pride in spending the 11th highest total this year. MacPhail and Jordan should be proud.

We had no international budget this year and we signed no top shelf free agents...and then to wrap it up we got outspent by 10 other teams according to Baseball America...

The Pirates, who gave a record $8 million bonus to No. 1 overall pick Gerrit Cole and set another mark for non-first-rounders by paying $5 million to second-rounder Josh Bell, spent a total of $17,005,700. That obliterated the old bonus standard of $11,927,200 set by the 2010 Nationals.

The Nationals didn't relinquish that record without a fight, spending $15,002,100 in bonuses. Additional guarantees to Rendon and Purke bring Washington's overall total to $17,602,100. The record for the most guaranteed money spent in a single draft remains $19,118,604 by the 2009 Nationals, the bulk of which was a $15,107,104 big league contract for No. 1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg.

The Royals ($14,066,000), Cubs ($11,954,550) and Diamondbacks ($11,930,000) also surpassed Washington's old bonus record. The Rays ($11,482,900), Mariners ($11,330,500), Padres ($11,020,600), Blue Jays ($10,996,500) and Red Sox ($10,978,700) brought the total of teams spending $10 million or more to 10. Only seven teams previously had topped $10 million in bonus spending, all in the previous three drafts.

Here

MacPhail's build from within plan looks more and more like a lie with each passing day. Of course the counter argument would be that we got Bundy on the cheap, but if they knew the figure they were willing to go with to get Bundy than they should've been allocating more money to more overslot picks instead of this arsenal of relievers we drafted this year.

[jcarm]

Bell, for instance, is not worth anywhere near $5M.

Definitely-most of baseball disagrees with you on this. If unproven 16 year old kids from the Dominican Republic are getting 5 million-and there are players that are getting this that do not grade out as first round talents if they were in the draft-that are getting this-then Bell is surely worthy of $5 million. If Bell were a free agent-he would have gotten more. I understand that he got a bigger bonus than Bundy-but of course Bundy got a major league deal and teams obviously believed Bell's threat of going to college more than they did Bundy's. Based on talent alone-I have read that Bell would have been drafted in the top 15 picks of the draft. The Pirates signing Bell for $5 million was a major coup on their part.

[Stotle]

Stotle, do you think Baltimore was able to draft compensation level talent in the later rounds relative to the rest of the AL East drafted with their compensation picks? Basically, did we close the gap for only having one 1st rounder? At all? Or did the rest of the AL East pretty much clean up talent wise on their picks.

I think I might have misread this the first time and answered with what was available to Baltimore. As far as who was actually taken, I think Esposito was clearly out of Supp consideration for most organizations because of his spring and past two summers. Delmonico could have a case for being a comp-level talent, but most evaluators covering Tenn. that I have spoken to did not think he was worth seven-figures at this point, based on his uneven spring. Outside of those two, there wasn't anyone I see in Baltimore's class that would qualify as a supplemental-1st talent, especially in a class this deep. Esposito and Delmonico would most likely fit into that range in a class llike this upcoming class (with the understanding things can change in how that class profiles). Last year was so deep that, for me, the difference between adding supp-1st talents like Owens, Comer, Jackie Bradley, Boyd, Crick, Fulmer, Story, Chafin, Kelly, Dwight Smith, Kes Carter, etc. and adding Esposito is a full bump. Delmonico is somewhere in between.

[allstar1579]

Other than the stupid Werth contract, Rizzo is doing a very good job of building the Nats. They should be poised to pounce when the Phillies start to decline.

The Werth contract was absolutely stupid, but I thought it was more of a statement, saying yes we are a bad team now, but we plan on getting better and we will PAY what it takes to bring talent in. It got them on the radar for players, kinda like the Redskins in the NFL, cause players know they will pay them top dollar no matter if they are a good team or not, so all of them have them on their list.

[DrungoHazewood]

The Werth contract was absolutely stupid, but I thought it was more of a statement, saying yes we are a bad team now, but we plan on getting better and we will PAY what it takes to bring talent in. It got them on the radar for players, kinda like the Redskins in the NFL, cause players know they will pay them top dollar no matter if they are a good team or not, so all of them have them on their list.

I think all that did was alert pending free agents that the Nats may be willing to spend insane amounts of money to get them to play in DC.

It will be interesting to see how the Werth fiasco effects Nats' management. It's hard to imagine a much worse scenario than a 32-year-old corner outfielder hitting .226 and putting up a 2-win season in year one of a hugely expensive 7-year deal. I thought the contract was silly when they signed it, but if Werth doesn't rebound in a huge way it might be worse than Carlos Lee.

[Frobby]

I believe we can take pride in spending the 11th highest total this year. MacPhail and Jordan should be proud.

We had no international budget this year and we signed no top shelf free agents...and then to wrap it up we got outspent by 10 other teams according to Baseball America...

Here

MacPhail's build from within plan looks more and more like a lie with each passing day. Of course the counter argument would be that we got Bundy on the cheap, but if they knew the figure they were willing to go with to get Bundy than they should've been allocating more money to more overslot picks instead of this arsenal of relievers we drafted this year.

I think it's a fallacy to judge a draft purely on dollars spent. Let's say the Orioles were willing to spend $7.5 mm on Bundy, but through shrewd negotiating, Jordan gets him down to $6.2 mm at the final hour. Do the O's get penalized for that?

Now, that said, I do think the O's should have been more aggressive in the early rounds of the draft. We only had one first round pick and no supplementals, so we should have been very aggressive in rounds 2-5.

[allstar1579]

I think all that did was alert pending free agents that the Nats may be willing to spend insane amounts of money to get them to play in DC.

It will be interesting to see how the Werth fiasco effects Nats' management. It's hard to imagine a much worse scenario than a 32-year-old corner outfielder hitting .226 and putting up a 2-win season in year one of a hugely expensive 7-year deal. I thought the contract was silly when they signed it, but if Werth doesn't rebound in a huge way it might be worse than Carlos Lee.

Yeah I absolutely agree. It's such a crazy risk, but at the same time, when you are in a situation like the O's are, where players won't even entertain your offers, at some point you have to make some kind of crazy statement like that. That might have been a bit too extreme, but I'd be willing to guess this offseason they are right in the thick of the big name guys.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yeah I absolutely agree. It's such a crazy risk, but at the same time, when you are in a situation like the O's are, where players won't even entertain your offers, at some point you have to make some kind of crazy statement like that. That might have been a bit too extreme, but I'd be willing to guess this offseason they are right in the thick of the big name guys.

I tend to think players and their agents who wouldn't sign with bad teams wouldn't change their mind just because a bad team offered Jayson Werth crazy money. Not unless that team was also willing to offer them similarly crazy money.

If players sign with the Nats its because they got more money than a contender was willing to offer, or because they believe the Nats are about to get good. Unless their fortunes turn the Werth contract will stand in the way of both.

[allstar1579]

I tend to think players and their agents who wouldn't sign with bad teams wouldn't change their mind just because a bad team offered Jayson Werth crazy money. Not unless that team was also willing to offer them similarly crazy money.

If players sign with the Nats its because they got more money than a contender was willing to offer, or because they believe the Nats are about to get good. Unless their fortunes turn the Werth contract will stand in the way of both.

There are some players that put more of a premium on playing for a contender and will take less money to do it, some guys though want top $$ and don't care where they get it. Depends on the player. Don't listen to guys that say "I let my agent handle all that and I sign where he tells me", none of them do that, not even Boras guys. They will give a list of teams they'd like to play for and the agent will do his magic from there, then you'll see teams not on the list come out of the blue and make a good offer and the agent will go back and say, it's not where you want to be but we got a really good offer from so and so and I think you should look at it.

The Nats are on the upswing, in spite of the Werth contract, but you're right, unless Werth has some major turnaround next year, they are going to have to figure out what to do with that deal.