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Fan vs. PECOTA Projections


square634

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Sorry, Charlie... talking in circles, and trying to shift the onus by asking questions, is *not* the same thing as making your case. Do you even know how?

Whatever...Way to dodge the question...All of those teams have a lot of things in common...Top OBP, top run scoring offenses, top BA teams, great team pitching, good BPs.

The Orioles are none of these.

Look at the Orioles in 1997...Very good all around team...We could afford a bad OPS from a good fielding SS(Bordick).

A team that is in the bottom of the league in offense and pitching and one that is lacking in talent and has had been terrible for a decade should be looking to get better everywhere.

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Also, you can't say 'good teams can afford a no-hit SS because they make up for the offense elsewhere' with the converse that 'the Orioles can't afford a no-hit SS because they're bad'. You're implying that since the Orioles can't make up the offense there, they have to make offense a priority at shortstop - the hardest position to find legitimate offense. That's just not smart.

Finally, the implication that these teams are 'scraping by' with a no-hit SS because of their other qualities is silly. If a .594 OPS, league average defender SS is average, then he's AVERAGE. Average. If the O's got consistent average production from every player on the 25-man, they'd be a lot better next year. Therefore, giving a cheap, in-house shortstop the chance to prove that he can provide average production in a lost season seems like a total no-brainer.

To be honest, this sounds like the sort of stuff Moneyball rails against - "he's too fat, he can't play", "he's a soft tosser", and now "you can't have a no-hit shortstop if the team can't pick up the slack! you just CAN'T! because that's just how it is in baseball!".

If the stats tell you that you can get average win production out of the shortstop hole by using Luis Hernandez, you USE HIM. If it doesn't, you don't.

Too bad this isn't average...He would have to play top shelf, gold glove caliber defense to carry that OPS and be league average.

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Well, since SG evidently has nothing to add besides content-free blather, let's just try to ignore the empty noise, and get back to something that has some actual substance to it...

What is +/-? Its plays above or below average. But what is average? Whatever happened that year. See the problem. The average changes every day. A bigger issue is sample size and reliability.

Yeah, I do see the problem and, BTW, thanks for proving my point ;-)

+/- is kinda like OPS+. Except we have more than just OPS+. We also have OBP and SLG, and we have rules-of-thumb about how we can turn them into RC. (Although, we apparently don't have a quick-and-dirty way to do that which incorporates tango's finding that 1.8 OBP-to-SLG is right.) So, if Sabre-stuff is all over the whole D-issue, then where are the analogous things for DR?

That said, the basic raw inputs for +/- are published by the Hardball Times about 1/3rd or so into the season (RZR, OOZ), and from that you could do a plays above or below average (it often pops up in blogs as runs above/below average as of date x).

So we do have a very good defensive stat published daily. It was in fact cited A LOT on this site this past season.

Well, if you know a good quick-and-easy way to rurn RZR and OOZ, etc. into +/- or DR, I'd love to hear it. I've been nosing around trying to find one, and none of them appear to actually work. I found one on THT, and when I ran it against the very few +/- scores we actually know, it's usually not even close. So, then I started reading about it on THT, and *they* say the correlation with the real +/- number is only .7, which sucks. It's better than .6, but so what? It still sucks if what you're trying to do is get a number for a guy. Even THT says that you shouldn't use it for that.

So, if we do have a "very good defensive stat published daily", how come we can't turn it into a +/- or DR number for individual guys that's worth a damn?

Why do we need inherently unreliable sample sizes to assess value. Why can't we know A-rod is a good hitter because he is, and the same of Adam Everett with the glove.

Because we've got absolutely nothing else to go by, that's why. Unless you know some killer formula that I don't know (maybe you do), then even big sample sizes don't tell us what to go by. It's a very real and very big problem. AFAIK, this is about 95% of why everybody undervalues D: it's because we've got useful numbers out the wazoo for O, but when it comes to D, we don't have squat. So, people use what they've got, and what they've got is lotsa O-stats. Which is why everything gets unreasonably boiled down to offense while pretty much ignoring D.

* if your point is really about how a stat is likely to be used , I can't help the fact that people are dumb or impatient or ignorant or whatever and won't look at D. But the notion that that is somehow any different than it ever was is silly. Talking value with a casual fan is almost always abut their triple crown line, although some other stuff has crept in like OBP.

This isn't about the "casual fan". Casual fans don't talk about RC and OPS+. It's not because "casual fans are impatient", it's because we don't have useful D-stats that give us a good way to calc DR as easily as we can RC. That's about 95% of the whole dang problem. Now, there might be good ways to do that which I don't know about. If there are, you'd be doing me a big favor by cluing me in about them, and I'd appreciate it. Really.

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Well, since SG evidently has nothing to add besides content-free blather, let's just try to ignore the empty noise, and get back to something that has some actual substance to it...

.

You are beyond pathetic...I will take your dodging of the questions as you having no real response and knowing when you are wrong.

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You are beyond pathetic...I will take your dodging of the questions as you having no real response and knowing when you are wrong.

SG, I asked you to make your case, and evidently you can't do it. So, instead of calling people names, either learn how to make your case, or go away and invent another 3-way trade. Quit trolling around here, trying to screw up what is otherwise a very good discussion.

There's umpteen other threads where you can easily be the center-of-attention, which is what you seem to be after. You don't need to screw up this thread too. So, either start swimming or get out of the pool. Quit splashing water in the swimmers' faces. It's just interference, and it adds nothing.

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SG, I asked you to make your case, and evidently you can't do it. So, instead of calling people names, either learn how to make your case, or go away and invent another 3-way trade. Quit trolling around here, trying to screw up what is otherwise a very good discussion.

There's umpteen other threads where you can easily be the center-of-attention, which is what you seem to be after. You don't need to screw up this thread too. So, either start swimming or get out of the pool. Quit splashing water in the swimmers' faces. It's just interference, and it adds nothing.

I have made my case...I did this like a month ago and if IIRC, you didn't even respond to it, which is typical because it shot a hole in your argument...I showed a bunch of the recent WS winners and where they ranked in offense and pitching and how that was what allowed them to make up for a poor hitting SS.

And you were the one who started the name calling.

BTW, you are the king of adding nothing, so those in glasses houses....

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.I showed a bunch of the recent WS winners and where they ranked in offense and pitching and how that was what allowed them to make up for a poor hitting SS.

One of my first posts when I joined the hangout in June demonstrated that teams that finish in the top 5 of their league in runs prevented win the World Series much more than teams that are in the top 5 in runs scored.

Not sure what your conclusion about making up for the poor hitting SS entails exactly. Seems to me having a plus defender on the field to help prevent the other team from scoring is a good idea.

In fact, a SABR member ran a correlation program between certain stats and winning percentage that I posted on here a couple times since joining. Earned Run Average has far and away the closest relationship to winning. OBP is the most important offensive number, beating OPS & SLG handily.

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One of my first posts when I joined the hangout in June demonstrated that teams that finish in the top 5 of their league in runs prevented win the World Series much more than teams that are in the top 5 in runs scored.

Not sure what your conclusion about making up for the poor hitting SS entails exactly. Seems to me having a plus defender on the field to help prevent the other team from scoring is a good idea.

In fact, a SABR member ran a correlation program between certain stats and winning percentage that I posted on here a couple times since joining. Earned Run Average has far and away the closest relationship to winning. OBP is the most important offensive number, beating OPS & SLG handily.

My conclusion is that you can get by with a poor hitting SS(or whatever position) when your team has very good hitting and pitching.

It isn't rocket science.

If we were in position to contend and we were thinking about LH at SS, it would be a different story. However, we need more top talent everywhere and shouldn't be settling for a guy who is much more likely to have a 550 OPS than he is to have a 650 OPS.

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My conclusion is that you can get by with a poor hitting SS(or whatever position) when your team has very good hitting and pitching.

It isn't rocket science.

Nor is it rocket science to think that having a plus defender at shortstop helps you lower your team ERA.

You only have to get 27 outs in a game. If a guy is getting you an extra out or two a week, that saves you runs over the course of a season.

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I have done this already on a much larger scale but let's just look at Boston last year...Lugo was pathetic offensively.

Offense:

4th in runs scored in majors...3rd in AL

3rd in OPS in majors...2nd in AL

2nd in OBP in majors and AL

6th in slugging in majors...3rd in AL

Pitching:

2nd in team ERA in majors..first in AL

2nd in majors in BP ERA...1st in AL

So, they had the 2nd best pitching and a top 4 offense in all of baseball....This is how they could afford to have the pathetic hitting Lugo at SS last year.

In contrast, here are the Orioles stats(AL only):

Pitching:

13th in BP ERA

13th in team ERA

Offense:

9th in runs scored

9th in OBP

10th in OPS

10th in slugging

These stats don't scream to me...Get an above average defender with a 570 OPS!

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I have done this already on a much larger scale but let's just look at Boston last year...Lugo was pathetic offensively.

Offense:

4th in runs scored in majors...3rd in AL

3rd in OPS in majors...2nd in AL

2nd in OBP in majors and AL

6th in slugging in majors...3rd in AL

Pitching:

2nd in team ERA in majors..first in AL

2nd in majors in BP ERA...1st in AL

So, they had the 2nd best pitching and a top 4 offense in all of baseball....This is how they could afford to have the pathetic hitting Lugo at SS last year.

In contrast, here are the Orioles stats(AL only):

Pitching:

13th in BP ERA

13th in team ERA

Offense:

9th in runs scored

9th in OBP

10th in OPS

10th in slugging

These stats don't scream to me...Get an above average defender with a 570 OPS!

And I don't think Lugo is even good defensively. I think all the Red Sox championship proves is that you can win even with one or two bad players.

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Nor is it rocket science to think that having a plus defender at shortstop helps you lower your team ERA.

You only have to get 27 outs in a game. If a guy is getting you an extra out or two a week, that saves you runs over the course of a season.

I never said it doesn't....But at what expense?

It was shown by Tom Tango that the breaking point is a 609 OPS if it is coupled by GOLD GLOVE CALIBER defense to be league average.

So, he has to be one of the best few SS in the world defensively and have an OPS better than he was able to produce at AA and AAA for him to be league average.

Now, you tell me..How likely is that?

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Too bad this isn't average...He would have to play top shelf, gold glove caliber defense to carry that OPS and be league average.

Yeah, I noticed afterwards that I was mixing what league averages I was talking about.

Luckily, you know what I meant, so there's no reason to ignore the rest of my post. I look forward to a response that doesn't just target the single mistake and ignore the gist.

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Yeah, I noticed afterwards that I was mixing what league averages I was talking about.

Luckily, you know what I meant, so there's no reason to ignore the rest of my post. I look forward to a response that doesn't just target the single mistake and ignore the gist.

Condense what you are asking me..LOL

I feel like I have answered it in other posts but maybe not?

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Are we really still having this conversation?

No matter how likely it is (and, as has been shown in this thread and others, it's not impossible that LH will provide GG-caliber defense) the real answer is how many runs (saved or created) is one SS worth versus another

The odds aren't good that LH will hit/field well enough to be valuable. But, because we have nothing left to lose by putting him on the field, I don't see what the big deal is. If he is that good, then it's worth finding out.

Replacing him with a SS with marginally better offense but no defensive upside simply because he's more likely to be worth more runs seems short-sighted in a year in which we're guaranteed to lose. If it turns out that LH is Adam Everett, well...he possesses some value. Anyone we're going to find for free might well be better than LH's likely production. But they're going to be just as replaceable. And far less likely to match LH's potential value if his defense is as good as his small sample from last year indicated.

Just my two cents. I think it'll be interesting to find out.

SG - if Billy Beane thought he could get a league average SS for the league minimum, he'd do it in a heartbeat. If LH is that good defensively, and he (and defense) is undervalued on the market, then we should do the prudent thing, spend the minimum at the crucial position, and spend the money elsewhere to get plus-production. Every dollar saved at shortstop can be applied elsewhere. Where there's likely better marginal value (but SSs are expensive).

Simple economics would tell us that, if LH can give us defense that makes him league average at league minimum cost, you do that in a heartbeat.

I mean, Hu might (might) give us better production, for instance, but is likely to cost us a prospect to get him back. Why waste resources for what's only a possibility of higher value?

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