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Fan vs. PECOTA Projections


square634

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I have done this already on a much larger scale but let's just look at Boston last year...Lugo was pathetic offensively.

Offense:

4th in runs scored in majors...3rd in AL

3rd in OPS in majors...2nd in AL

2nd in OBP in majors and AL

6th in slugging in majors...3rd in AL

Pitching:

2nd in team ERA in majors..first in AL

2nd in majors in BP ERA...1st in AL

So, they had the 2nd best pitching and a top 4 offense in all of baseball....This is how they could afford to have the pathetic hitting Lugo at SS last year.

In contrast, here are the Orioles stats(AL only):

Pitching:

13th in BP ERA

13th in team ERA

Offense:

9th in runs scored

9th in OBP

10th in OPS

10th in slugging

These stats don't scream to me...Get an above average defender with a 570 OPS!

So the Red Sox had one of baseball's best pitching staffs AND offenses in 2007. Yes, obviously a team dominating both sides of the ball can win. What in the world does THAT hav to do with the future of the Orioles?

Teams that thrived without such all-around dominance have more relevance. Teams like the 2005 White Sox (9th in runs, 1st in ERA), 1997 Marlins (8th in runs, 4th in ERA), 1995 Braves (9th in runs, 1st in ERA) "overcame" poor-hitting shortstops not so much by making up the hitting elsewhere, but by preventing the opposition from scoring, aided -no doubt- by their poor-hitting shortstop.

Since the Orioles have no illusions of winning it all in 2008, I can't see the harm in playing a guy who's apparently quite capable of aiding both the statistics and morale of our young pitchers by snarfing up BIP's and turning them into precious outs.

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Are we really still having this conversation?

No matter how likely it is (and, as has been shown in this thread and others, it's not impossible that LH will provide GG-caliber defense) the real answer is how many runs (saved or created) is one SS worth versus another

The odds aren't good that LH will hit/field well enough to be valuable. But, because we have nothing left to lose by putting him on the field, I don't see what the big deal is. If he is that good, then it's worth finding out.

Replacing him with a SS with marginally better offense but no defensive upside simply because he's more likely to be worth more runs seems short-sighted in a year in which we're guaranteed to lose. If it turns out that LH is Adam Everett, well...he possesses some value. Anyone we're going to find for free might well be better than LH's likely production. But they're going to be just as replaceable. And far less likely to match LH's potential value if his defense is as good as his small sample from last year indicated.

Just my two cents. I think it'll be interesting to find out.

SG - if Billy Beane thought he could get a league average SS for the league minimum, he'd do it in a heartbeat. If LH is that good defensively, and he (and defense) is undervalued on the market, then we should do the prudent thing, spend the minimum at the crucial position, and spend the money elsewhere to get plus-production. Every dollar saved at shortstop can be applied elsewhere. Where there's likely better marginal value (but SSs are expensive).

Simple economics would tell us that, if LH can give us defense that makes him league average at league minimum cost, you do that in a heartbeat.

I mean, Hu might (might) give us better production, for instance, but is likely to cost us a prospect to get him back. Why waste resources for what's only a possibility of higher value?

I absolutely agree with this in a lot of circumstances. There are situations where I would disagree with this and I would still look to get a better than league average guy making no money BUT if LH can be league average because of his defense, he absolutely has value.

I am not debating that.

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So the Red Sox had one of baseball's best pitching staffs AND offenses in 2007. Yes, obviously a team dominating both sides of the ball can win. What in the world does THAT hav to do with the future of the Orioles?

Teams that thrived without such all-around dominance have more relevance. Teams like the 2005 White Sox (9th in runs, 1st in ERA), 1997 Marlins (8th in runs, 4th in ERA), 1995 Braves (9th in runs, 1st in ERA) "overcame" poor-hitting shortstops not so much by making up the hitting elsewhere, but by preventing the opposition from scoring, aided -no doubt- by their poor-hitting shortstop.

Since the Orioles have no illusions of winning it all in 2008, I can't see the harm in playing a guy who's apparently quite capable of aiding both the statistics and morale of our young pitchers by snarfing up BIP's and turning them into precious outs.

Not much...Then again, what does your post on bad hitting SS's on WS teams have to do with the future of the Orioles?

My point has been constant...These teams can overcome poor performance at SS...We can't..We should be looking to add better talent.

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Not much...Then again, what does your post on bad hitting SS's on WS teams have to do with the future of the Orioles?

My point has been constant...These teams can overcome poor performance at SS...We can't..We should be looking to add better talent.

No doubt about that, either. Relying on LH to be the future at the expense of finding other talent is silly.

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Let's say, for the sake of argument, we can't add a young SS for whatever reason.

What would you rather do:

Trade Payton for Uribe or start LH?

Well, Uribe costs $4.5 million, no? I don't think Juan Uribe does anything for our future. And if Payton can be traded for even a minor league arm (or can bolster a deal and upgrade a package) then I say we stick with LH.

There's no REAL advantage with Uribe - not long-term. The only way I trade Payton for him and replace LH with him is if Payton can go nowhere else. If there's LITERALLY no other trade in which he can bring back value.

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Well, Uribe costs $4.5 million, no? I don't think Juan Uribe does anything for our future. And if Payton can be traded for even a minor league arm (or can bolster a deal and upgrade a package) then I say we stick with LH.

There's no REAL advantage with Uribe - not long-term. The only way I trade Payton for him and replace LH with him is if Payton can go nowhere else. If there's LITERALLY no other trade in which he can bring back value.

All in all, I think I'd rather have that blue Corolla over there on the back row. (You see it, it's right behind the red Ford pick-up.)

It looks like a good deal to me. It's marked down, plus it gets better MPG. On the other hand, I see SG has Uribe's OPS written on his windshield. Anybody know how many DR's he gets? And does he come with a warranty? Or is he "as is"? Does he burn any oil? Anybody know?

(Whew, I'm glad we're back to talking baseball!)

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All in all, I think I'd rather have that blue Corolla over there on the back row. (You see it, it's right behind the red Ford pick-up.)

It looks like a good deal to me. It's marked down, plus it gets better MPG. On the other hand, I see SG has Uribe's OPS written on his windshield. Anybody know how many DR's he gets? And does he come with a warranty? Or is he "as is"? And does he burn any oil? Anybody know?

(Whew, I'm glad we're back to talking baseball!)

I'm not sure what you're talking about. Frankly, I think SG would take LH over Uribe, too.

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I'm not sure what you're talking about. Frankly, I think SG would take LH over Uribe, too.

Not if I could trade Payton for him.

Uribe has been a 6+ win player 3 of the last 4 years(by WARP3) and is a good fielding SS himself.

And he may have something to do with our future....I believe he is a FA after this season...He could end up being worth a draft pick or maybe something in trade at the deadline.

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Not if I could trade Payton for him.

Uribe has been a 6+ win player 3 of the last 4 years(by WARP3) and is a good fielding SS himself.

And he may have something to do with our future....I believe he is a FA after this season...He could end up being worth a draft pick or maybe something in trade at the deadline.

Well, anymore his WARP is - as LH would be - based completely on defense. His OPS has declined each year for the last three (from .800+ to .678). I don't completely trust his WARP because of this...BP's fielding valuations aren't fantastic (or at least I've heard as much.)

That said, he is a good fielding SS. But he'll be 29 this year and costs 10x as much as LH.

Like I said, I still think I wait and see what else can be gotten for Payton. The $4.5 million is a decent chunk of change. It might return better value elsewhere.

As for the optimistic idea that Uribe will bring back a lot - I think that' s a bit of a stretch. Or at least a long-shot. He's essentially Corey Patterson last year - and Patterson's WARP drifted down to a 3.4 this year. A sub .700 OPS again (which isn't exactly far-fetched) seems, if not likely, then at least 50-50.

He's only marginally more likely to get that many picks as a FA than Payton. His defensive Win Shares are a bit erratic, as well:

Win SharesYear	Tm	Lg	Batting	Pitching	Fielding	WSP	WSAB	Total WS	CWS2004	CHA	AL	12.3	0.0	  5.7	 .632	 8	 18	N/A2005	CHA	AL	 7.4	 0.0	 9.3	 .563	 6	 17	 612006	CHA	AL	 4.8	 0.0	 6.2	 .404	 1	 11	 722007	CHA	AL	 3.9	 0.0	 9.3	 .432	 2	 13	 85

I can see your point - but I don't think it's an emphatic or obvious one. It's a bit of a crapshoot really. Neither option is fantastic.

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Well, anymore his WARP is - as LH would be - based completely on defense. His OPS has declined each year for the last three (from .800+ to .678). I don't completely trust his WARP because of this...BP's fielding valuations aren't fantastic (or at least I've heard as much.)

That said, he is a good fielding SS. But he'll be 29 this year and costs 10x as much as LH.

Like I said, I still think I wait and see what else can be gotten for Payton. The $4.5 million is a decent chunk of change. It might return better value elsewhere.

As for the optimistic idea that Uribe will bring back a lot - I think that' s a bit of a stretch. Or at least a long-shot. He's essentially Corey Patterson last year - and Patterson's WARP drifted down to a 3.4 this year. A sub .700 OPS again (which isn't exactly far-fetched) seems, if not likely, then at least 50-50.

He's only marginally more likely to get that many picks as a FA than Payton. His defensive Win Shares are a bit erratic, as well:

Win SharesYear	Tm	Lg	Batting	Pitching	Fielding	WSP	WSAB	Total WS	CWS2004	CHA	AL	12.3	0.0	5.7	.632	8	18	N/A2005	CHA	AL	7.4	0.0	9.3	.563	6	17	612006	CHA	AL	4.8	0.0	6.2	.404	1	11	722007	CHA	AL	3.9	0.0	9.3	.432	2	13	85

I can see your point - but I don't think it's an emphatic or obvious one. It's a bit of a crapshoot really. Neither option is fantastic.

This I agree with but Uribe is without a doubt a surer thing.

BTW, i think Payton goes in the Bedard or BRob deals, so this a moot point...Just using Payton as an example.

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