Fan vs. PECOTA Projections

[now]

Its not reasonable to expect that at all.

ah, you found the chink in my ironclad argument.

True, it's hazardous to expect that level of production. That's why I only said it's reasonable to think he might approach it.

At least the number think-tanks give us some reliable projections for OPS (.578-.607); so actually to expect .609, or to accept a little less and end up in the neighborhood of -0.5 to -1 wins, is not unreasonable at all.

Not saying it's the optimum long-term solution, you understand...

[tangotiger]

Thank you for this.

So, if I read this correctly, Luis Hernandez would need to give us a 609 OPS and play Everett caliber defense for him to be worth it.

I see you used -.5 wins.

What exactly does that mean....Does that mean with a 609 OPS and great defense, that he is still not even worth 1 win?(just want to be clear)

If Luis Hernandez had a 610 OPS and played Everett level defense, how many wins is he worth to a team?

-0.5 wins, relative to average. So, whatever an average player is worth, I'm setting the "regular that you can stomach" at 0.5 wins below average. The worst player in the league (the 25th guy, aka Willie F. Bloomquist) is worth roughly -2.25 wins per 162 games, relative to average. So, setting a level of 0.5 wins below average as the minimum stomach level is somewhat reasonable.

[tangotiger]

The part that puzzles me is how you weighted good-D. I may be wrong, but as best I can tell, the only way you assigned any weight to defense is as follows:

I'm not sure why you did this. First off, Gold Glove is something of a dubious standard. Second off, I'm not sure why you presumed +2.5 wins and left it at that. Now, I'm sure that you know way more about this than I do (Really. I'm not being a smartass). But I would've thought that you'd care about how many balls they can get to, how many outs they create for the Bad Guys, how many bases they take away from the Bad Guys, stuff like that. Wouldn't that make more sense than just picking a number for "Gold Glove D"? Don't Gold Glovers vary a lot in how much D they actually contribute, in terms of how much they cost the Bad Guys in terms of outs, and runs, and total bases, and stuff like that? It seems that you're being rather precise about offense (in terms of OBP and SLG) but are being very vague and general about defensive contribution. Am I wrong about this?

I meant "Gold Glove" in its "best glove in the game" sense not in its "ehh, who do the coaches and managers think has the best glove" sense.

Basically, the best fielding SS, whoever he is (Everett, Tulo) is worth +2.5 wins more than an average fielding SS. I need to put a reasonable ceiling on the number. I'm not trying to argue HOW to measure fielding (i.e., finding the OBP, SLG equivalent in fielding). I'm simply saying that after *you* have established who is the best fielder, it will pretty much come out as that guy being +2.5 wins above average, per 162 games.

So, the assumption is: given that you know who the best fielding player in baseball is, it's a good bet that this guy is +2.5 wins above average. Knowing that, here's what his OPS needs to be.

[Sports Guy]

-0.5 wins, relative to average. So, whatever an average player is worth, I'm setting the "regular that you can stomach" at 0.5 wins below average. The worst player in the league (the 25th guy, aka Willie F. Bloomquist) is worth roughly -2.25 wins per 162 games, relative to average. So, setting a level of 0.5 wins below average as the minimum stomach level is somewhat reasonable.

So basically, if a player puts up a 609 OPS and plays GG caliber defense, he is basically a replacement player...worth zero wins to his team??

Is that correct?

Sorry, just trying to be 100% clear.

We have an ongoing argument on here about Luis Hernandez...He of the sub 600 MiL OPS who is supposed to have a very good glove.

[square634]

So basically, if a player puts up a 609 OPS and plays GG caliber defense, he is basically a replacement player...worth zero wins to his team??

Is that correct?

Sorry, just trying to be 100% clear.

We have an ongoing argument on here about Luis Hernandez...He of the sub 600 MiL OPS who is supposed to have a very good glove.

If I am reading it correctly, I think 0 is set as the average ML SS, not a replacement-level player.

[Lucky Jim]

If I am reading it correctly, I think 0 is set as the average ML SS, not a replacement-level player.

That's right. Though this may not stop the anti-LH contingent from reading these stats in whatever way supports their bias.

I kid, I kid.*

*I'm marginally anti-LH myself.

[Sports Guy]

If I am reading it correctly, I think 0 is set as the average ML SS, not a replacement-level player.

OK, this makes more sense.

So basically, LH is going to have to play GG caliber defense for him to be ok for us.

And really, that is at a 609 OPS and I think that is being generous.

So, if he has a 550-580 OPS, he would have to play above gold glove caliber defense.

[tangotiger]

Right, at that level of OPS, he'd make a regular player that you can stomach. i.e., you could handle seeing him out there for 140 games.

He could have an OPS+ of 43, and you could live with him as being the 25th guy on the team, and worst player in the league.

At an OPS+ of 73 (and GG-caliber fielding), he'd be your typical starting player that you can find on any team.

[RShack]

That's right. Though this may not stop the anti-LH contingent from reading these stats in whatever way supports their bias.

I kid, I kid.*

*I'm marginally anti-LH myself.

Well, so far I've learned that top-quality SS-D is worth +2.5 Wins, and that the Worst Player In Baseball is worth -2.25 Wins. And, since LH is in between there somewhere, that means we're basically arguing about almost-nothing when it comes to '08 wins. Which is pretty much what I've said all along.

As best I can tell, the only real diff is whether we get to watch a guy who plays SS pretty, thus giving us and the kid-pitchers something to smile about when the O's are in the field. Meanwhile, some folks who say they'd be happy to go from 70 wins to 60 wins (or even 50 wins!) if the kids are playing are having a fit about how LH's crappy-bat will overrule his glove by a win (or maybe two!), and that excellent-D for the kid pitchers just ain't worth it. Furthermore, that one win (or maybe two!) makes his D so very not-worth-it that the very idea is a complete outrage. All of which seems kinda bizarre to me. I guess we need to find our outrage wherever we can get it ;-)

[Sports Guy]

Thank you tangotiger...Much appreciate your analysis here.

So, for all you LH fans...It seems that he needs to post an OPS over 600 and play GG caliber defense to be an average ML SS.

Do you think he can do these things?

[Sports Guy]

BTW, for those of you who have read "The Book"...Is this the type of analysis that is throughout it?

[Frobby]

Thank you tangotiger...Much appreciate your analysis here.

So, for all you LH fans...It seems that he needs to post an OPS over 600 and play GG caliber defense to be an average ML SS.

Do you think he can do these things?

This seems like a good place to mention that LH put up a .564 OPS in the Domincan winter league this year. He probably would not top .600, and if he did, it would be by a very slim margin.

Can he play Adam Everett-level defense? I haven't seen enough of him to know. However, the odds are against it.

[now]

BTW, for those of you who have read "The Book"...Is this the type of analysis that is throughout it?

Obviously The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball itself is much more thorough and detailed in its presentation and explanation of data. Like this thumbnail analysis here, however, it is quite valuable in reducing seemingly unresolvable or mysterious strategical dilemmas into clear statements of conclusive evidence -- usually based on large amounts (thousands of games over decades) of actual-game data. A must-have, IMO.

[RShack]

What's the conversion being used here to turn OBP and SLG into wins?

[now]

Thank you tangotiger...Much appreciate your analysis here.

So, for all you LH fans...It seems that he needs to post an OPS over 600 and play GG caliber defense to be an average ML SS.

Do you think he can do these things?

If we did get this league-average performance at SS for minimum salary, it's a bargain, with saved resources available for above-average production at other positions. The key to having an average-or-below SS is leveraging the salary advantage to boost the roster elsewhere.

It sure beats wasting $4-8 million on way-below-average production, a la Payton, Gibbons, Baez.