Reynolds wants another crack at 3B

[Frobby]

Reynolds had his worst defensive year at 3B in 2011, and in this interview, he explains why he thinks that happened. It is plausible to me that by bulking up so much, he hurt his agility and mobility at 3B. Therefore, to me it would be foolish not to have another look at him at 3B this spring. It's not as though last year was his norm defensively, and as I recall, he actually went 3-4 weeks without an error shortly before Lee was traded and Buck moved him to 1B. Davis isn't exactly Brooks Robinson, so let Reynolds show what he's got.

[El Gordo]

If you buy the positional adjustments (and I don't) then Reynold playing a -11 UZR 3B is worth about 2.5 WAR and Reynolds playing a 0 UZR 1B would be worth about 2.2 WAR. I think that is the best case expectation for him at either position. More likely he'll be clloser to -5 at 1B and - who knows at 3B.

[GoldGlove21]

Reynolds had his worst defensive year at 3B in 2011, and in this interview, he explains why he thinks that happened. It is plausible to me that by bulking up so much, he hurt his agility and mobility at 3B. Therefore, to me it would be foolish not to have another look at him at 3B this spring. It's not as though last year was his norm defensively, and as I recall, he actually went 3-4 weeks without an error shortly before Lee was traded and Buck moved him to 1B. Davis isn't exactly Brooks Robinson, so let Reynolds show what he's got.

He made a lot of errors where he easily got to the ball or it was hit right at him and he booted it. I would imagine that Reynolds does want to play 3B. His numbers are below average for first baseman, but his offensive numbers play pretty well at third. As far as the Orioles go, I would want to maximize his value by letting him DH most games and fill in at first or third as needed. I would target upgrades to first and third. If not than I would see what Davis can do at third and find an upgrade at first. I don't care if Reynolds thinks that he can play third at a high level, history says otherwise.

[GoldGlove21]

If you buy the positional adjustments (and I don't) then Reynold playing a -11 UZR 3B is worth about 2.5 WAR and Reynolds playing a 0 UZR 1B would be worth about 2.2 WAR. I think that is the best case expectation for him at either position. More likely he'll be clloser to -5 at 1B and - who knows at 3B.

What would his WAR be if he just DH'd?

[El Gordo]

Reynolds had his worst defensive year at 3B in 2011, and in this interview, he explains why he thinks that happened. It is plausible to me that by bulking up so much, he hurt his agility and mobility at 3B. Therefore, to me it would be foolish not to have another look at him at 3B this spring. It's not as though last year was his norm defensively, and as I recall, he actually went 3-4 weeks without an error shortly before Lee was traded and Buck moved him to 1B. Davis isn't exactly Brooks Robinson, so let Reynolds show what he's got.

I wonder what the value at 3B would be for Antonelli or Flaherty in comparison to Reynolds? They probably are both superior fielders, with Antonelli most likely a plus defender. He wouldn't have to hit much to be worth more than Reynolds playing his career average -11 UZR at 3B.

[El Gordo]

What would his WAR be if he just DH'd?

Worse, about 1.7 assuming a 3.5 oWAR.

[JTrea81]

If you buy the positional adjustments (and I don't) then Reynold playing a -11 UZR 3B is worth about 2.5 WAR and Reynolds playing a 0 UZR 1B would be worth about 2.2 WAR. I think that is the best case expectation for him at either position. More likely he'll be clloser to -5 at 1B and - who knows at 3B.

Reynolds has shown in his career stats that he is a worse defender at 1B than he is at 3B.

And 2.2 WAR at 1B while an improvement, is not going to cut it with the roster makeup we have.

[JTrea81]

Worse, about 1.7 assuming a 3.5 oWAR.

Yep, you've got to have one heck of a season as a DH to sniff 3.0 WAR.

[El Gordo]

Reynolds has shown in his career stats that he is a worse defender at 1B than he is at 3B.

And 2.2 WAR at 1B while an improvement, is not going to cut it with the roster makeup we have.

His 1B D stats are meaningless. He has less than half a seasons worth of playing time at that position over 4 yaers. I am not suggesting hw should play 1B necessarily. I am just showing the comparitive values, assuming his oWAR is 3.5. I personally don't believe that an average 3B is worth 1.5 W more than an average 1B on defense.

[Frobby]

His 1B D stats are meaningless. He has less than half a seasons worth of playing time at that position over 4 yaers. I am not suggesting hw should play 1B necessarily. I am just showing the comparitive values, assuming his oWAR is 3.5. I personally don't believe that an average 3B is worth 1.5 W more than an average 1B on defense.

The positional adjustment accounts for the average offensive performance at the position, not the difference in defensive value. It is easier to find an .800 OPS 1B than an .800 OPS 3B. It is very easy to measure that adjustment and I see no reason to doubt it.

You also have to consider the issue of who plays 3B if Reynolds doesn't. I didn't see any visual or statistical evidence that Davis is better defensively at 3B than Reynolds. I do think Davis is a better 1B than Reynolds. So what is gained by having Reynolds at 1B and Davis at 3B. You can consider Andino or Antonelli at 3B, but Andino's a huge step down offensively, and Antonelli's unproven both offensively and defensively so we'd have to have a look at him before declaring he's a better option than Reynolds. So, I see no reason not to have a further look at Reynolds at 3B. That doesn't mean you put him there, but you give him an opportunity to win the job there.

[El Gordo]

The positional adjustment accounts for the average offensive performance at the position, not the difference in defensive value. It is easier to find an .800 OPS 1B than an .800 OPS 3B. It is very easy to measure that adjustment and I see no reason to doubt it.

You also have to consider the issue of who plays 3B if Reynolds doesn't. I didn't see any visual or statistical evidence that Davis is better defensively at 3B than Reynolds. I do think Davis is a better 1B than Reynolds. So what is gained by having Reynolds at 1B and Davis at 3B. You can consider Andino or Antonelli at 3B, but Andino's a huge step down offensively, and Antonelli's unproven both offensively and defensively so we'd have to have a look at him before declaring he's a better option than Reynolds. So, I see no reason not to have a further look at Reynolds at 3B. That doesn't mean you put him there, but you give him an opportunity to win the job there.

I'm not sure FanGraphs agrees with you:

"Traditionally, offensive position adjustments have been popular, which aligns the positions by adjusting on the basis of the difference in offensive runs. However, due to the variability in offensive performance from year to year, that can lead to miscalculations, such as believing that an NL 2B and an NL SS were equal in 2008 because they had the same batting line. Clearly, shortstops are better defenders than second baseman, and we have to reflect this in their value.

That’s why we prefer a defensive position adjustment." http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/explaining-win-values-part-three

I think we should look at Davis, Reynolds, Antonell,i and Flaherty at 3B in ST. As I have said elsewhere Antonelli is most likely a plus defender at 3B from the scouting reports on him, and he wouldn't have to hit hat much to be more valuable than Reynolds unless he is getting back to his 2010 fielding level. Antonelli appears to have good OBP and can run the bases a bit as well.

[JTrea81]

I'm not sure FanGraphs agrees with you:

"Traditionally, offensive position adjustments have been popular, which aligns the positions by adjusting on the basis of the difference in offensive runs. However, due to the variability in offensive performance from year to year, that can lead to miscalculations, such as believing that an NL 2B and an NL SS were equal in 2008 because they had the same batting line. Clearly, shortstops are better defenders than second baseman, and we have to reflect this in their value.

That’s why we prefer a defensive position adjustment." http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/explaining-win-values-part-three

I think we should look at Davis, Reynolds, Antonell,i and Flaherty at 3B in ST. As I have said elsewhere Antonelli is most likely a plus defender at 3B from the scouting reports on him, and he wouldn't have to hit hat much to be more valuable than Reynolds unless he is getting back to his 2010 fielding level. Antonelli appears to have good OBP and can run the bases a bit as well.

I think you'll find Antonelli might be our starting 2B man...

[El Gordo]

I think you'll find Antonelli might be our starting 2B man...

Quite possibly. But if not I'd be curious to see how he plays at 3B. Or Flaherty for that matter.

[Frobby]

I'm not sure FanGraphs agrees with you:

"Traditionally, offensive position adjustments have been popular, which aligns the positions by adjusting on the basis of the difference in offensive runs. However, due to the variability in offensive performance from year to year, that can lead to miscalculations, such as believing that an NL 2B and an NL SS were equal in 2008 because they had the same batting line. Clearly, shortstops are better defenders than second baseman, and we have to reflect this in their value.

That’s why we prefer a defensive position adjustment." http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/explaining-win-values-part-three

I think we should look at Davis, Reynolds, Antonell,i and Flaherty at 3B in ST. As I have said elsewhere Antonelli is most likely a plus defender at 3B from the scouting reports on him, and he wouldn't have to hit hat much to be more valuable than Reynolds unless he is getting back to his 2010 fielding level. Antonelli appears to have good OBP and can run the bases a bit as well.

Thanks, that is interesting. I'm pretty sure the positional adjustment used in rWAR is offensive, but I could be wrong about that. I agree we should look at all four guys at 3B this spring.

[DrungoHazewood]

Are you people nuts? Did you see him play 3B last year? He is AWFUL. I would rather see Andino there.

Did you spend 30 seconds running the numbers? He's more valuable at third than either DH or 1B unless he's just abysmal with the glove again. And last year he was just leaps and bounds worse than any other season he's ever had.