#Orioles and #Braves are making progress on an Adam Jones deal. Hearing Jurrjens is involved

[Sports Guy]

We'll agree to disagree.

JJ was getting traded regardless, but obviously the Braves won't trade anyone for undervalue. Ultimately, I think he will be a Rockie.

And who profiles better in the pen better than the rotation, other than Viz? I'll hang up and listen to some expertise.

Well that's one guy...Some feel that way about Delgado.

But even if it is just one of them...That gives you Hanson(shoulder concerns), Minor, Beachy, Teheran and Delgado. That is putting a lot of eggs in your young pitcher basket, while having a guy leading the rotation who has a shoulder injury.

Now, I don't blame Atlanta...I think they are right to do this and trade Jurrjens....but there is a lot more to it than just wanting to give young guys a chance.

This team can win it all. They have the talent to do it...Why would you trade one of your "sure thing" starters when that is the case?

It all adds up to them being worried about his long term value and just striking the iron while its hot.

[andrewrickli]

I hate this question.

No offense to you and its not that its not a worthy question of asking or trying to figure out...but the idea that we should be looking at just pitching prospects is just wrong.

What does this team have long term in terms of offensive prospects? Our OF prospects are terrible. CI is poor. We have very little power.

We are pretty good in terms of MI prospects but those guys are 2+ years away.

This organization needs EVERYTHING.

Miami needs a CF...

[Stotle]

We'll agree to disagree.

JJ was getting traded regardless, but obviously the Braves won't trade anyone for undervalue. Ultimately, I think he will be a Rockie.

And who profiles better in the pen better than the rotation, other than Viz? I'll hang up and listen to some expertise.

The industry's opinion of JJ is generally good, but the there was concern over his ability to be as successful in the AL, even before the injury questions. He has made about 2/3 of his starts in each of the last two years and quite frankly is simply not going to bring back a huge package unless there is a team out there willing to shrug off the health questions. It may be the case that ATL doesn't get enough back in offers to justify moving him, and that is fine. But his value, at least in the minds of certain teams, is no better than a mid-rotation guy with injury questions.

As I said, it only takes one team to view JJ the same way ATL does for a deal to happen. But the market for him is soft, and there are legit reasons as to why that is.

[Swampdonks]

Could the Braves be interested in Guthrie?

Of course, the question would be, why trade JJ if you are going to obtain Guthrie?

Well, the big difference there is JJ can help net you the player you want and need but by trading him, you do lose a guy to eat innings...and since Hanson is a question mark and Lowe is gone, that would be a lot of pressure on the young pitchers.

Or, if they aren't interested in Guthrie, what about Johnson? Someone to take some strain off of Venters and Kimbrel?

Makes some sense since the Braves really do not have an innings eater, but I really do think they are ready to pass the ball to Teheran (taking Lowe's spot) and either Medlen, Minor, or Delgado (taking Jurrjen's spot). Another top bullpen guy would make more sense for this team. Another reason I can't see this working is the Braves are really strained financially this year. They don't have the room to take on another $8M.

[sakata_catching]

First question on Dave Cameron's fangraphs chat today:

11:59

Comment From Brent

The Orioles seem to put way way to much value in Adam Jones. If the Braves actually offered Jurrjens, Prado and a prospect for him, they were nuts to turn it down, right?

12:00

Nope. Jones is a good player with a lot of upside. If the Orioles think UZR is wrong and he was an even an average defensive CF last year, that would make him a +4 win player at age 25. Braves fans who think they're getting him for a song are the nutty ones here.

[andrewrickli]

First question on Dave Cameron's fangraphs chat today:

As they should. Jones can be a game changer, and is entering his peak years, he already has a GG and an AS appearance. He will hit for 30 HRs next year. Book it.

[Lucky Jim]

We'll agree to disagree.

JJ was getting traded regardless, but obviously the Braves won't trade anyone for undervalue. Ultimately, I think he will be a Rockie.

And who profiles better in the pen better than the rotation, other than Viz? I'll hang up and listen to some expertise.

I'd see who blinks. Like I said there are two kinds of value at work here.

That said, do you really think they're pressing for Teheran and Vizcaino and Delgado in the rotation this year? And if so, doesn't the fact that Hanson is a question mark complicate that?

Right now you have:

Hudson

Hanson

Jurrjens

Beachy

Minor

Which leaves Vizcaino, Teheran and Delgado.

Teheran may be ready. But Delgado does not appear ready (he has one year with an MLE under 6). And Vizcaino (i) may be a reliever; and (ii) has never pitched 100 IP in a season, and (iii) has prior TJ issues. He isn't likely to be a full-season MLB starter anyway.

Is that really so sussed-out that it explains the Braves moving one of only two pitchers returning with 150 IP from last year?

I'm not "expert," it's just a legitimate question, I think.

[Swampdonks]

This team can win it all. They have the talent to do it...Why would you trade one of your "sure thing" starters when that is the case?

I'll disagree with you here, as well. As much as I love the Braves, this team just doesn't have the ability to win it all quite yet. They are one legit bat away. The offense was abysmal at times last year. Obviously, they are hoping Heyward and Prado turn it around, as well as Uggla and McCann who both had a really bad 1st half and 2nd half, respectively.

But at the same time, the aren't going to overpay just to get that bat. The Braves organization has been good about this, and it is a big reason why they have been successful for quite some time. Without bringing up World Series titles of course.

[weams]

Well that's one guy...Some feel that way about Delgado.

But even if it is just one of them...That gives you Hanson(shoulder concerns), Minor, Beachy, Teheran and Delgado. That is putting a lot of eggs in your young pitcher basket, while having a guy leading the rotation who has a shoulder injury.

Now, I don't blame Atlanta...I think they are right to do this and trade Jurrjens....but there is a lot more to it than just wanting to give young guys a chance.

This team can win it all. They have the talent to do it...Why would you trade one of your "sure thing" starters when that is the case?

It all adds up to them being worried about his long term value and just striking the iron while its hot.

Daniel Cabrera Radhames Liz Garrett Olson Brandon Erbe Chorye Spoon Chris Smith Luis Rivera Matt Riley Hayden Penn Chris Tillman Brian Matusz Brad Bergeson Chris Ray Matt Hobgood Dan Klein

[sakata_catching]

And some more from Cameron's chat:

12:40

Comment From kevin

Glad to see you are saying this braves-O's trade is garbage..what use would any player going to the O's have to them? Jurrgens would get lit up in the Al East and prado is a nice piece on a contender...that makes 0 sense for the O's

12:41

The problem for the Braves seems to be that they don't want the pieces that no one else wants either. They're either going to have to change what they're willing to give up or change what they want to receive. Right now, it's square peg and round hole.

[GoldGlove21]

First question on Dave Cameron's fangraphs chat today:

This is how I feel and I think UZR is wrong when it comes to Jones. He is an average defensive center fielder IMO.

[sakata_catching]

But at the same time, the aren't going to overpay just to get that bat. The Braves organization has been good about this, and it is a big reason why they have been successful for quite some time. Without bringing up World Series titles of course.

Wren overpaid for half a season of Tex. He overpaid for 2.5 awful seasons of Nate McLouth. I'm not so sure he won't overpay here when all is said and done. It's just the terms of overpayment upon which we're disagreeing.

[allstar1579]

Daniel Cabrera Radhames Liz Garrett Olson Brandon Erbe Chorye Spoon Chris Smith Luis Rivera Matt Riley Hayden Penn Chris Tillman Brian Matusz Brad Bergeson Chris Ray Matt Hobgood Dan Klein

None of them, (outside MAYBE of BMat and it's too soon to write him off) had the hype that Hanson and Teheran have had. I don't really buy into Delgado, Beachy, Minor or Vizciano like others do, but the other two are legit.

[Swampdonks]

I'd see who blinks. Like I said there are two kinds of value at work here.

That said, do you really think they're pressing for Teheran and Vizcaino in the rotation this year? And if so, doesn't the fact that Hanson is a question mark complicate that?

Right now you have:

Hudson

Hanson

Jurrjens

Beachy

Minor

Which leaves Vizcaino, Teheran and Delgado.

Teheran may be ready. But Delgado does not appear ready (he has one year with an MLE under 6). And Vizcaino (i) may be a reliever; and (ii) has never pitched 100 IP in a season, and so isn't likely to be a full-season MLB starter anyway.

Is that really so sussed-out that it explains the Braves moving one of only two pitchers returning with 150 IP from last year?

Good post. And you're right as it is a matter of who budges. Personally, I don't think either does and a trade with the Orioles will not happen. I think the Rockies end up giving Wheeler, who the Braves are high on, and Jurrjens goes there.

To start off going line by line, Teheran will be in the rotation this year. Not Minor even though he has the experience. Viz will be in the bullpen this year to help out O' Flaherty, Venters, and Kimbrel and he will probably remain there for another couple years until his arm is needed in the rotation. He has a lot of work to do with his change up.

Don't forget Medlen. Check out his numbers from both the majors and minors. He is the definition of solid and gets forgot about a lot when dealing with fans not from the Braves. Problem is he's coming off TJ Surgery and missed pretty much all of last year. He will have a legit chance at the 5th spot if Jurrjens is traded.

It most definitely is a concern, but I think it's a concern the Braves are willing to have if it improves the offense. I'm concerned about it though because the Braves fell hard when Hanson and Jurrjens were both down in the 2nd half. I wish we had that one innings eater to help out the young guys (Not named Derek Lowe), but if the Braves weren't comfortable with the young starting pitching, they wouldn't be throwing out Jurrjens' name in a trade. Just my opinion.

[weams]

I'd see who blinks. Like I said there are two kinds of value at work here.

That said, do you really think they're pressing for Teheran and Vizcaino and Delgado in the rotation this year? And if so, doesn't the fact that Hanson is a question mark complicate that?

Right now you have:

Hudson

Hanson

Jurrjens

Beachy

Minor

Which leaves Vizcaino, Teheran and Delgado.

Teheran may be ready. But Delgado does not appear ready (he has one year with an MLE under 6). And Vizcaino (i) may be a reliever; and (ii) has never pitched 100 IP in a season, and (iii) has prior TJ issues. He isn't likely to be a full-season MLB starter anyway.

Is that really so sussed-out that it explains the Braves moving one of only two pitchers returning with 150 IP from last year?

I'm not "expert," it's just a legitimate question, I think.

Regarding this, it seems that you may be expert.