#Orioles and #Braves are making progress on an Adam Jones deal. Hearing Jurrjens is involved

[jamalshw]

I think they should try and get a deal similar to McCutchen worked out. He's worth retaining.

The FA class next year looks much better for pitchers, than hitters, and I think the Orioles are closer to competing than we realize. Keeping Jones would send a message to the fans that the O's are serious about contending.

I agree with this. I want Jones to stay now. We've built around him and he's part of the core. I wouldn't have minded dealing him before, but for some reason (perhaps early season delusion) I feel that we are past the point where trading him makes sense. If you can extend him, you have several answers for the 2014 season resolved and too me, that should be the real target (and when Machado and possibley Bundy and Schoop can make a real impact).

[El Gordo]

AJ, JJ, Hardy and Reynolds could bring a nice Haul at the deadline.

[TheBee]

Both of the last two posts make sense. The team's performance the next month will determine which happens. Huge month IMO.

[apollod]

They were talking about Jones today on 105.7 FM. They have spoken to him and reported that if he doesnt receive a new contract during this season he will not sign in the off season. I think the Orioles will look to deal him before the deadline. If they were having contract discussions we would be hearing about them. Jones is taking the right approach to make a organization loathed by its fans even worse.

Dan Connolly covered this in an article this morning. Jones won't resign if next season starts; Dan Duquette talked to his agent during the LA trip, but he (Duquette) doesn't like to do contract extensions during the season, as he sees it as a distraction. He definitely seems like he'd extend here though (but again pretty much anybody would if the money was right). That said Dan wrote a followup article saying he'd guess that Jones would be traded this season, but that was more of a guess than anything he's heard.

Articles in question:

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-jones-0424-20120423,0,1209470.story?page=1

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-connolly-adam-jones-will-only-increase-his-stock-this-season-20120423,0,7704046.story

[mcinww0]

Maybe I'm a delusional homer (actually I know I am) but it seems like dealing Jones would just lengthen the rebuilding process. I think we're close to competing with guys on our 25 man roster. Our lineup could use some tweaks but nothing DD can't fix in one offseason. The bullpen is coming together, and the starting pitching is either going to pan out soon or it never will. Bundy could help us as early as 2013, as could machado.

The problem with dealing for prospects is that you dont know what you'll get back in terms of real major league talent. Jones was a 3.4 WAR player offensively last year, and although defensive stats dont like him, he's a pretty solid center fielder. He's also young and about to enter his prime, so his production should only increase. What are the odds of a 21 year old prospect actually providing more value than Jones? Pretty low. Look at what the braves offered us this offseason. Jerjjunds has absolutely tanked this year. Jones is the rare blend of proven talent with an even higher ceiling.

Moreover, who would we replace him with? There's noone in house, so we'd have to buy or trade for a center fielder next year, while trying to replace Jones' offense. I think the correct move would be to extend him for 4 years (through 2016) for around $50 million. If he doesn't bite, go the full 6 years/$90 million. We cant afford to let the few studs we do have disappear.

Same goes for wieters. He's got a few years of arbitration, but when his time comes the O's have got to keep him around, whatever the cost. Gregg and Roberts are coming off the books soon enough, which will free up some cash. The payroll was pretty low this year anyway.

[SilentJames]

The whole Jones issue is a Rorschach Test for fans.

If you believe that the Orioles are closer to competing than some realize then you see Jones and the Orioles as wanting to stay together.

If you believe the Orioles are far away from competing then you see the Orioles and Jones parting ways.

I personally fall into the first camp.

[SrMeowMeow]

The whole Jones issue is a Rorschach Test for fans.

If you believe that the Orioles are closer to competing than some realize then you see Jones and the Orioles as wanting to stay together.

If you believe the Orioles are far away from competing then you see the Orioles and Jones parting ways.

I personally fall into the first camp.

That certainly doesn't describe my reasons for wanting to trade Jones.

[El Gordo]

The whole Jones issue is a Rorschach Test for fans.

If you believe that the Orioles are closer to competing than some realize then you see Jones and the Orioles as wanting to stay together.

If you believe the Orioles are far away from competing then you see the Orioles and Jones parting ways.

I personally fall into the first camp.

By the time the deadline arrives we'll have a pretty good idea of which category we fit in. All depends on how the SP fairs. If Jake and Matusz are having good years, Along with Hammel and Chen, then maybe we extend Jones. If not there will be a number of teams interested in him. SF, LAA, WAS, ATL, come immediately to mind. Jones for Trumbo, Bourjos, and a SP prospect?

[Orioles0615]

Maybe I'm a delusional homer (actually I know I am) but it seems like dealing Jones would just lengthen the rebuilding process. I think we're close to competing with guys on our 25 man roster. Our lineup could use some tweaks but nothing DD can't fix in one offseason. The bullpen is coming together, and the starting pitching is either going to pan out soon or it never will. Bundy could help us as early as 2013, as could machado.

The problem with dealing for prospects is that you dont know what you'll get back in terms of real major league talent. Jones was a 3.4 WAR player offensively last year, and although defensive stats dont like him, he's a pretty solid center fielder. He's also young and about to enter his prime, so his production should only increase. What are the odds of a 21 year old prospect actually providing more value than Jones? Pretty low. Look at what the braves offered us this offseason. Jerjjunds has absolutely tanked this year. Jones is the rare blend of proven talent with an even higher ceiling.

Moreover, who would we replace him with? There's noone in house, so we'd have to buy or trade for a center fielder next year, while trying to replace Jones' offense. I think the correct move would be to extend him for 4 years (through 2016) for around $50 million. If he doesn't bite, go the full 6 years/$90 million. We cant afford to let the few studs we do have disappear.

Same goes for wieters. He's got a few years of arbitration, but when his time comes the O's have got to keep him around, whatever the cost. Gregg and Roberts are coming off the books soon enough, which will free up some cash. The payroll was pretty low this year anyway.

It would speed up the rebuilding process. He is our biggest trade piece and would land us the most. You wouldn't be trading him for no name low level prospects, you would hopefully get back at least one legit major league ready prospect, and a mid tier prospect who could make an impact. I want Jones to stay, but he could get very expensive, and the O's need to figure out what to do with him soon, because if they wait until the offseason to try and trade him I think his value will be at an all time low.

[Brendan25]

The whole Jones issue is a Rorschach Test for fans.

If you believe that the Orioles are closer to competing than some realize then you see Jones and the Orioles as wanting to stay together.

If you believe the Orioles are far away from competing then you see the Orioles and Jones parting ways.

I personally fall into the first camp.

Whether we are close to competing or not we should want to keep Jones if he is willing to sign long term here.

[SilentJames]

That certainly doesn't describe my reasons for wanting to trade Jones.

Refresh our memories

[SilentJames]

Whether we are close to competing or not we should want to keep Jones if he is willing to sign long term here.

If we aren't close to keeping he won't stay here and we shouldn't keep him. If we can't be legitimate contenders in a two-four year window (basically Jones' golden years) then he needs to be traded this season and we need a haul. A Bedard-like trade.

If we are not close to competing then there is no reason to keep him when trading him gets you closer.

[SrMeowMeow]

Refresh our memories

Because I think he'll command more in a trade or an extension than he's actually worth.

[SilentJames]

Because I think he'll command more in a trade or an extension than he's actually worth.

I think that is short-sighted. I mean here is a guy coming into his own as we speak. He has the talent and he has just been getting better. He is becoming a leader and legitimate face of this franchise.

He is going to get paid.

If he is going to be a key on this team going forward then he should be OUR key. If you believe that the pieces we get back are going to be more valuable going forward then you must believe that we do not have a legitimate shot of winning with Jones on the team.

If you do believe that we have a shot of winning with Jones on the team, and are willing to sacrifice that for prospects, well I just don't know what to say about that.

[glenn__davis]

Because I think he'll command more in a trade or an extension than he's actually worth.

From a trade standpoint I agree with you. If we could get a very good package of players I'd have no problem dealing him.

From a money standpoint, I really don't care if we overpay Jones a bit. I think sometimes fans get a little too caught up in the idea of "value". Like if you're paying a player $10M, but Fangraphs or whoever says he's only worth $7M, then you've made a bad deal. (Not saying you are doing this, just in general.)

Jones is a good player. I want good players on my team. If we overpay, so be it. We'll have a few contracts coming off soon, but as always there will be a few more to add if we want (Jones, Wieters, JJ).