Clay Davenport: Cespedes = Adam Jones

[DrungoHazewood]

If I gave you a list of 40 Major Leaguers over the last 10 years and their HiA stats and asked you to look at the current pool of HiA players and project their future MLB performance do you really think your projections would be in any way useful?

Yes, I think it would have some use. Future major league players are generally differentiated from the competition, even down to mid-to-lower levels of the minors.

I picked JJ Hardy at random. He played AA ball at the age of 20. He and Corey Hart easily had the best combination of numbers, age, and position on the team. They're the only position players on that Huntsville team who had significant MLB careers. Without knowing anything else about him, I'd say a 20-year-old shortstop with an .800 OPS in AA is an excellent bet going forward.

I look at Cespedes' projections that say he's a .250-ish hitter with 25+ homer power and plate discipline issues, potentially good defense in center. How does that significantly disagree from the scouting reports?

[CA-ORIOLE]

I am not sure how you measure degrees of accuracy. I think someone who is familiar with Cespedes as an individual, familiar with the differences in Cuban/American culture on and off the field, and is also a good baseball evaluator, could fairly accurately describe Cespedes' upside and correctly identify the biggest hurdles he'll have to reach that upside.

Yeah, I have no idea. I'd rely on guys like you for an opinion/projection. But, I don't want to pay 40 mil for an athlete.

[CA-ORIOLE]

I look at Cespedes' projections that say he's a .250-ish hitter with 25+ homer power and plate discipline issues, potentially good defense in center.

That could be Felix Pie with a few less HR's and a higher BA.

How does that significantly disagree from the scouting reports?

That's my question. Should be an opportunity for the scouts to excel here.

[Stotle]

Yes, I think it would have some use. Future major league players are generally differentiated from the competition, even down to mid-to-lower levels of the minors.

I picked JJ Hardy at random. He played AA ball at the age of 20. He and Corey Hart easily had the best combination of numbers, age, and position on the team. They're the only position players on that Huntsville team who had significant MLB careers. Without knowing anything else about him, I'd say a 20-year-old shortstop with an .800 OPS in AA is an excellent bet going forward.

I look at Cespedes' projections that say he's a .250-ish hitter with 25+ homer power and plate discipline issues, potentially good defense in center. How does that significantly disagree from the scouting reports?

That wasn't the question. Here is JJ Hardy at High Desert (Adv.-A), as Davenport said A ball was the closest comparable league he found:

JJ Hardy (age 19) -- .293/.327/.409, 19 BB, 38 SO (364 PA)

Also on this team (with better OPS than Hardy):

Corey Hart (age 20) -- .288/.356/.573, 37 BB, 101 SO (437 PA)

Dave Krynzel (age 20) -- .268/.391/.460, 64 BB, 100 SO (444 PA)

Daryl Clark (age 22) -- .244/.352/.476, 58 BB, 117 SO (411 PA)

Chris Rowan (age 23) -- .270/.311/.518, 12 BB, 95 SO (306 PA)

Brandon Gemoll (age 21) -- .280/.344/.417, 16 BB, 33 SO (195 PA)

How helpful are these standalone stats in determining which of these 19-22 yr olds would go onto good ML careers?

Regarding the bolded, how is a projection system using Cuban stats giving any indication as to defensive value?

Finally, just because a system arrives at the same conclusion as another system, that doesn't mean that one, both, or either system is valid.

[Stotle]

Yeah, I have no idea. I'd rely on guys like you for an opinion/projection. But, I don't want to pay 40 mil for an athlete.

I mean, to invest that kind of money I'd have to have input from scouts that have really been sitting on Cespedes and are confident in projecting him out. Either that, or have enough money that I don't care if I pay him $60 MM for $30 MM worth of performance.

[DrungoHazewood]

That could be Felix Pie with a few less HR's and a higher BA.

That's my question. Should be an opportunity for the scouts to excel here.

That's the same Felix Pie who the scouts at BA rated a top-100 prospect five different years.

You need all the data you can get, and even then it's often not enough.

[El Gordo]

I mean, to invest that kind of money I'd have to have input from scouts that have really been sitting on Cespedes and are confident in projecting him out. Either that, or have enough money that I don't care if I pay him $60 MM for $30 MM worth of performance.

From what I have read his price is down to about 4/32 M. Jones would cost us 4/40 plus if we extended him.

[Stotle]

From what I have read his price is down to about 4/32 M. Jones would cost us 4/40 plus if we extended him.

Different discussion, and one predicated on one salary figure supposedly floated to a media person and another that is purely hypothetical.

[Stotle]

That's the same Felix Pie who the scouts at BA rated a top-100 prospect five different years.

You need all the data you can get, and even then it's often not enough.

Scouting a teenager with a world of development ahead of him is a little different than scouting a 26 year old that you hope can make some adjustments. Not really a fair comparison.

[JERSEYORIOLE]

Open the newspaper in May and look at the high school baseball stat leaders in your county. Say the top 20 kids or so are listed -- cream of the crop. Now tell me what that means in the context of assigning future MLB value to these players.

I think this is the point. To some degree HS players are projected to be X and given millions of dollars based upon playing in almost all cases inferior players and a wide range of talent levels. If they can do that with a 17 year old kid in HS ball, why can they not do so with a player playing internationally?

[El Gordo]

Different discussion, and one predicated on one salary figure supposedly floated to a media person and another that is purely hypothetical.

So what are you basing your 60 M figure on?

[Lucky Jim]

From what I have read his price is down to about 4/32 M. Jones would cost us 4/40 plus if we extended him.

So what are you basing your 60 M figure on?

I brought it up at the time there was a report of the number w/r/t the Marlins. Quoted in this thread.

[El Gordo]

I brought it up at the time there was a report of the number w/r/t the Marlins. Quoted in this thread.

Point is, it is no more valid then the 4/32M. At some point it comes down to money. I'd be willing to risk 4/32 M but not 5/60M. But the point is moot because Cespedes will be a Marlin at 4/32M.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Point is, it is no more valid then the 4/32M. At some point it comes down to money. I'd be willing to risk 4/32 M but not 5/60M. But the point is moot because Cespedes will be a Marlin at 4/32M.

I read where the Marlins stated they would not go over 60 million for him. But that makes no sense if there isn't a market for him in that context.

[Lucky Jim]

Point is, it is no more valid then the 4/32M. At some point it comes down to money. I'd be willing to risk 4/32 M but not 5/60M. But the point is moot because Cespedes will be a Marlin at 4/32M.

This doesn't have much to do with the discussion. In the end, you're still balancing the same probabilities (Jones extended, the value of prospects in return for Jones, the projection of Cespedes). All we're doing is discussing what data points you rely upon and why.