Clay Davenport: Cespedes = Adam Jones

[Stotle]

I think this is the point. To some degree HS players are projected to be X and given millions of dollars based upon playing in almost all cases inferior players and a wide range of talent levels. If they can do that with a 17 year old kid in HS ball, why can they not do so with a player playing internationally?

Huh? We are talking about the utility of stats, which are essentially thrown out the window at the high school level.

[Stotle]

So what are you basing your 60 M figure on?

The figure is irrelevant. That isn't the discussion being had here. It was raised only in as much as CA and I were discussing how "certain" you can be using different forms of evaluation and I was trying to express my threshholds.

[DrungoHazewood]

Scouting a teenager with a world of development ahead of him is a little different than scouting a 26 year old that you hope can make some adjustments. Not really a fair comparison.

Pie was scouted as a top 100 prospect at the age of 22 when he already had 623 AAA plate appearances under his belt. It's not that different.

Look, I know that these translations have some uncertainty and the magnitude of that uncertainty varies based on a bunch of variables. You probably can't pick out future success with a high level of confidence just using low A stats. But they give you a head start. Even looking at guys from the High Desert Mavericks 8 runs/game environment example. Of the three youngest guys who held their own, Dave Krynzel is the one who didn't make it, Hart and JJ did.

If you give me translations I'm going to take them into consideration. If you give me scouting reports, same deal. If you give me the Wunderlich test results, I'll take a look. And I'll try to take the whole pile of information and attempt to assemble it in the most rational, systematic way possible.

[Stotle]

Pie was scouted as a top 100 prospect at the age of 22 when he already had 623 AAA plate appearances under his belt. It's not that different.

Look, I know that these translations have some uncertainty and the magnitude of that uncertainty varies based on a bunch of variables. You probably can't pick out future success with a high level of confidence just using low A stats. But they give you a head start. Even looking at guys from the High Desert Mavericks 8 runs/game environment example. Of the three youngest guys who held their own, Dave Krynzel is the one who didn't make it, Hart and JJ did.

If you give me translations I'm going to take them into consideration. If you give me scouting reports, same deal. If you give me the Wunderlich test results, I'll take a look. And I'll try to take the whole pile of information and attempt to assemble it in the most rational, systematic way possible.

Well, with Pie, we are talking about an industry that is generally slow to change opinion on someone. And, BA takes statistics into account, along with information from the scouts they talk too.

I agree, I'll take a look at everything. As I said, I took a look at the article. I just think it's more a fun exercise from people running projection systems, as opposed to a useful tool for assigning value. That said, I fully admit that I don't think my personal "scouty" evaluation of Cespedes is worth a whole lot more (if any more at all).

[CA-ORIOLE]

.... I fully admit that I don't think my personal "scouty" evaluation of Cespedes is worth a whole lot more (if any more at all).

Too bad. I was looking forward to your "scouty" evaluation.

[Stotle]

Too bad. I was looking forward to your "scouty" evaluation.

I've posted it on here. I have my opinion, but I don't think it's enough to go on when making this kind of decision. I have no issue stating when I haven't seen enough of someone to give a solid appraisal.

[Sports Guy]

Why should Cespedes get more money than Chapman got?

[Fan4Life]

Why should Cespedes get more money than Chapman got?

Is the competition for him the same as Chapman? I don't recall a lot of teams be interested in Chapman. But on the face of it, you're right.

[DrungoHazewood]

Why should Cespedes get more money than Chapman got?

I don't know if he will, but if so it's something along the lines of Adam Jones would probaby get more than Daniel Bard if they were both free agents.

[Stotle]

Why should Cespedes get more money than Chapman got?

Because a team might be willing to pay it?

[JTrea81]

Why should Cespedes get more money than Chapman got?

Because the Marlins are throwing it around this offseason...

[.500_OR_BETTER]

Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Tigers, white sox ....

Now Marlins announce they will go after Cespedes aggressively..

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/12/marlins-planning-aggressive-pursuit-of-yoenis-cespedes/

Not a mention about the O's... I would take him off the board

[Roll Tide]

Pay the Man !!!!!

He can even hit the outside breaking ball:smile11:

[El Gordo]

Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Tigers, white sox ....

Now Marlins announce they will go after Cespedes aggressively..

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/12/marlins-planning-aggressive-pursuit-of-yoenis-cespedes/

Not a mention about the O's... I would take him off the board

61 % of Miami-Dade is Hispanic, and roughly half of that are Cubans. That's more than the population of Havana according to the 2002 census. I would be amazed if that is not where Cespedes lands.

[Roll Tide]

Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Tigers, white sox ....

Now Marlins announce they will go after Cespedes aggressively..

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/12/marlins-planning-aggressive-pursuit-of-yoenis-cespedes/

Not a mention about the O's... I would take him off the board

I find it amusing that the Orioles wasted time & resources scouting Darvish....They sent a number of guys to see Cepedes and will not bid on him either!