Britt: Reynolds at 3b

[Enjoy Terror]

You're another one that needs to check out the positional adjustments. Let me help:

Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games)

First Base: -12.5 runs

Second Base: +2.5 runs

Third Base: +2.5 runs

Shortstop: +7.5 runs

Left Field: -7.5 runs

Center Field: +2.5 runs

Right Field: -7.5 runs

Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs

So if Reynolds is a DH he is -17.5 R. If he is a -10(career ave,) defensive 3B, then his value is still 10 R better as a 3B

Don't insult me. I'm well aware of the positional adjustments.

If you're trying to up his positional value by sticking his square peg into a round hole, other teams are going to look at him and say "hell no, I'm not going to trade for a 3B who can't play the position at third". The Orioles can play him at third base all year, but no one is going to trade for him as a third baseman. They're going to trade for him and stick him at DH, or otherwise not trade for him at all. He can't play third base.

Which is just as useful as upping his stock by playing him at SS; he can't play that position either, but that doesn't mean you should try to just because his value would be higher... he is what he is, and that's a not very good third baseman. He's a DH. The Orioles made that bed when they got him, they knew his defensive shortcomings, and now they need to accept it and not cost this team more runs on defense.

[El Gordo]

Don't insult me. I'm well aware of the positional adjustments.

If you're trying to up his positional value by sticking his square peg into a round hole, other teams are going to look at him and say "hell no, I'm not going to trade for a 3B who can't play the position at third". The Orioles can play him at third base all year, but no one is going to trade for him as a third baseman. They're going to trade for him and stick him at DH, or otherwise not trade for him at all. He can't play third base.

Which is just as useful as upping his stock by playing him at SS; he can't play that position either, but that doesn't mean you should try to just because his value would be higher... he is what he is, and that's a not very good third baseman. He's a DH. The Orioles made that bed when they got him, they knew his defensive shortcomings, and now they need to accept it and not cost this team more runs on defense.

He might be worth more as a DH if he had the same kind of awful year at 3B as this past one. But his average defense is about -10 RS, In 2009 he was worth 3.5 WAR with a -11 UZR. Had he been a DH that year he would have been worth less than 2 WAR. If he has a career ave year on defense and a career average .812 OPS, he'd be worth more than if he had that same OPS as a DH.

[allstar1579]

I think we need to stop getting caught up in analyzing stats and keep it simple. Reynolds offense, without the negative of his defense at 3B is a good thing. If he's at 1B instead of 3B, it's better, but there is some negative to his offense. If he's at 3B he's probably at his lowest overall value to us. The only question that you never know until you try is if he's a guy that CAN play DH. Some guys don't hit as well when they aren't out in the field the other half of the game. Some guys actually hit BETTER when they don't have to be out there. If it's me I'm giving it a shot for while to check and see.

[El Gordo]

I think we need to stop getting caught up in analyzing stats and keep it simple. Reynolds offense, without the negative of his defense at 3B is a good thing. If he's at 1B instead of 3B, it's better, but there is some negative to his offense. If he's at 3B he's probably at his lowest overall value to us. The only question that you never know until you try is if he's a guy that CAN play DH. Some guys don't hit as well when they aren't out in the field the other half of the game. Some guys actually hit BETTER when they don't have to be out there. If it's me I'm giving it a shot for while to check and see.

Reynolds has been all over the place at 3B. -4.4, -10.3, -6.5 +2.2, -22.8 UZR He isn't the kind of ungainly, uncoordinated fielder like a DCab or a Dunn. He is very athletic and makes some great plays. It's not that he lacks ability. He had a nice stretch last season where he made no errors, before he was moved to 1B after DLee was traded. He's only played 4 + seasons. It's not like he is a finished product. The one thing that is fairly consistent is his bat. So I think it's worth a shot giving him a chance to improve at 3B. If his numbers were consistently -10 or worse or if we had someone who could play plus defense at a .750 OPS or better, I might feel differently, but we don't. We aren't going to the WS this year so why not see if he can improve?

[MarylandAaron]

I think we need to stop getting caught up in analyzing stats and keep it simple. Reynolds offense, without the negative of his defense at 3B is a good thing. If he's at 1B instead of 3B, it's better, but there is some negative to his offense. If he's at 3B he's probably at his lowest overall value to us. The only question that you never know until you try is if he's a guy that CAN play DH. Some guys don't hit as well when they aren't out in the field the other half of the game. Some guys actually hit BETTER when they don't have to be out there. If it's me I'm giving it a shot for while to check and see.

I agree. I think we should DH him to start out the season and see how he fares there. If say, by the beginning of June, he struggling along at a .700 OPS, we'd move him back to 1B. OTOH, if he is tearing things up at that point to the tune of an .850 OPS, he'd stick at DH.

There's no point in having him as our OD 1B or 3B when we know that he's going to have around neutral production in terms of WAR at those positions.

[El Gordo]

I agree. I think we should DH him to start out the season and see how he fares there. If say, by the beginning of June, he struggling along at a .700 OPS, we'd move him back to 1B. OTOH, if he is tearing things up at that point to the tune of an .850 OPS, he'd stick at DH.

There's no point in having him as our OD 1B or 3B when we know that he's going to have around neutral production in terms of WAR at those positions.

The question is who do we know will have better production at either position?

[blid]

I like giving Reynolds a shot at 3B. He's physically capable, and never before committed so many errors like he did last year. If he straightens out he's still not a plus 3B, but he'll be most valuable there.

[allstar1579]

Reynolds has been all over the place at 3B. -4.4, -10.3, -6.5 +2.2, -22.8 UZR He isn't the kind of ungainly, uncoordinated fielder like a DCab or a Dunn. He is very athletic and makes some great plays. It's not that he lacks ability. He had a nice stretch last season where he made no errors, before he was moved to 1B after DLee was traded. He's only played 4 + seasons. It's not like he is a finished product. The one thing that is fairly consistent is his bat. So I think it's worth a shot giving him a chance to improve at 3B. If his numbers were consistently -10 or worse or if we had someone who could play plus defense at a .750 OPS or better, I might feel differently, but we don't. We aren't going to the WS this year so why not see if he can improve?

Yeah I don't disagree. I wouldn't be opposed to giving him 50+ game stretches at each position and try to see if he can fit long term. If he gets better at 3rd, that's the best case. If he doesn't but he shows he can play avg-above avg at 1st, that's 40 HR power at 1B for you. If he can't do that either, maybe he excels at DH, who knows it might even help him improve on his avg. only focusing on offense.

This year should be an entire evaluation year for both Reynolds and Davis. I mean if Davis ended up hitting .270 with 30 HR and stayed healthy all year (I think the ability is in there somewhere) it would be best case, but it'd be nice to know for sure. I hate when teams give up on guys that they really didn't give an extended look to.

[Bradysburns]

The thing is, I don't think Reynolds is as bad as he looked last year. His career stats don't support it, and his reputation coming from Arizona doesn't support it. He may not be a good third baseman, and may never be good, but that doesn't mean he can't play the position well enough that he isn't a hinderance to the defense.

I got a little dramatic earlier - him playing third wouldn't be the end of the world as we know it. To his credit, he does make some stellar plays now and again. (Er, but so did Manny Alexander.) I guess I just see compromises everywhere. This just seems like one more admission that we can't put together a competitive roster.

[atomic]

I think you guys miss the bigger point. That Reynolds can provide the most wins for the orioles if he is playing third base for another american league team.