Deal with Cards in the works? (Ambiguous Tweet from STL Beat Writer 2012)

[TheBee]

Considering nobody has picked up on this at all, I'd say this guy reporting the Jones deal joins the @MLBInsideOutsideUpstairsDownstairsNews crowd as being a faker...

yeah, safer to watch Strauss for any follow ups

[allstar1579]

I don't think they are in full rebuild mode. They are in the NL Central, no one is ever in rebuild in a division where 85 wins gives you a legit shot at winning the division. I skimmed through the Redbirds' roster this morning and saw two older (27,28) guys that play second base and have a nice high OBP throughout the minors. One of those guys plus some higher-end younger pitching prospects would be good.

It would be an unusual trade, but I think it is something that could work.

No, San Diego is in full rebuild. STL just doesn't have the prospects to make it work. People are REALLY undervaluing Jones around here, weird. If they are 27,28 and still in the minors there's a reason for it. You can get those guys for free/almost nothing, not to mention we already have younger/better options in Antonelli/Flaherty.

Jones should net a (in Goldstein terms) 5-star prospect and a 4-star prospect at least. A young offensive and defensive CF not yet in his prime should have a serious return attached. Think a notch below Beltran when he was dealt to HOU.

[allstar1579]

yeah, safer to watch Strauss for any follow ups

I think Strauss:STL :: Heyman:BAL.

Nothing to see here.

[eb45]

Considering nobody has picked up on this at all, I'd say this guy reporting the Jones deal joins the @MLBInsideOutsideUpstairsDownstairsNews crowd as being a faker...

Strauss is the Cardinals beat writer for the Post-Dispatch. He's not some guy making stuff up, he's actually getting paid to do this by a reputable news outlet.

[JTrea81]

Strauss is the Cardinals beat writer for the Post-Dispatch. He's not some guy making stuff up, he's actually getting paid to do this by a reputable news outlet.

Strauss wasn't reporting any Jones deal, or any deal at all really.

That new MLB Insider was reporting the Jones to Cardinals trade and that's who I was referring to.

[allstar1579]

Yeah, I would even do Jones for Jay and Miller. Probably even Miller straight up.

Selling short. Miller is the 5-star kinda guy that should headline a Jones package, but you should be able to get another really good prospect in there, especially if it's no ML level talent and all prospects. I don't think I'd even trade him straight up for Rendon (although I'd think about it, and might do it if there was a RP thrown in).

[allstar1579]

Strauss is the Cardinals beat writer for the Post-Dispatch. He's not some guy making stuff up, he's actually getting paid to do this by a reputable news outlet.

Yeah but the impression I got from reading some Cardinals fan sites is that the guy is NEVER right.

[LookinUp]

My picks to call and who is required would be SF: Belt, WAS: Rendon, SD: Alonso but none of them will happen for various reasons. I really am starting to think WAS took Rendon with the full intent of trading him for a ML piece to help them make the jump to contender though.

Alonso doesn't fit with Belt or Rendon, IMO. As to who is required, I'd add a few pitchers to that list like Shelby Miller, Turner, etc. Rendon would still be my favorite of all of them, and I think it's a deal the Nats would be willing to make later this summer. Rendon+ for Jones makes a ton of sense for both sides, as long as the Nats don't end up with Cespedes.

[eb45]

For one prospect, a RP and a 4th OF??

If the prospect is Shelby Miller? Yeah. Also, Jay had the same OPS+ as Jones in 2011 and was only slightly behind in wOBA (.339 to .333). Jones was worth 2.9 fWAR, Jay 2.8, in over 100 less PA. Plus Jay has three more years before FA.

And again, Shelby Miller. And McClellan isn't bad either.

[allstar1579]

Alonso doesn't fit with Belt or Rendon, IMO. As to who is required, I'd add a few pitchers to that list like Shelby Miller, Turner, etc. Rendon would still be my favorite of all of them, and I think it's a deal the Nats would be willing to make later this summer. Rendon+ for Jones makes a ton of sense for both sides, as long as the Nats don't end up with Cespedes.

Why doesn't Alonso fit with them? If Rizzo hadn't been traded I would have said it's a REAL possibility, he's a better fit for an AL team, but the bat is legit. He's just AWFUL defensively.

I would throw some pitching prospects in there, but I'd be really picky who since it takes a very specific type of pitcher to be successful in CY, and a top prospect for another team might not be as successful here. You have to have a high GB% or VERY low contact rate to have a chance in BAL. It's like pitching in COL.

I wrote a blog entry the other day that said pretty much the same thing about the Nats. With them launching extension talks with Zimmerman it makes even more sense. Take a guy you normally wouldn't take, and flip him for a ML piece the next year, don't have to wait for results and they can get someone to pair with their core who are ML level now, not in 2-3 years.

[eb45]

Yeah but the impression I got from reading some Cardinals fan sites is that the guy is NEVER right.

That's about the impression I'm getting as well. Doesn't mean there's nothing here but I'd still be surprised to see anything come of it.

[TheBee]

I think Strauss:STL :: Heyman:BAL.

Nothing to see here.

A couple things... I don't think any baseball writers are perfect, but I think many are more tapped in than ours here in Baltimore. As far as Strauss is concerned, he just made 1 ambiguous statement that indicated we were talking to the Cards, it's not like he brought up Jones or a blockbuster. I exchanged emails with him during the Bedard trade time period and found our correspondance at the time to be beneficial. It turned out that what he was telling me seemed validated later on. We'll see. He isn't actually saying much yet.

[Rene88]

The fact that everyone is stirred up over such minor and vague news (via tweet) is amazing to me. DD hasn't really pulled off a big trade yet. By the looks of the Dana Eveland blockbuster, not sure I want to see it either.

[JTrea81]

Just to clarify, Strauss is not reporting any Jones deal whatsoever nor does it make sense for them to get him when they have two cost controlled options in Allan Craig and Jon Jay as well as Carlos Beltran who can play CF.

The likely trade (if there is one) is Westbrook or maybe McClellan being shipped to the O's to make room for Oswalt.

[allstar1579]

If the prospect is Shelby Miller? Yeah. Also, Jay had the same OPS+ as Jones in 2011 and was only slightly behind in wOBA (.339 to .333). Jones was worth 2.9 fWAR, Jay 2.8, in over 100 less PA. Plus Jay has three more years before FA.

And again, Shelby Miller. And McClellan isn't bad either.

Let's not get into statistics. Jay hit .300 which raises those totals, but he is going to be a CF who could be a legit lead off hitter, but he can't steal bases to save his life. He isn't going to hit for much power. You might get 10 out of him a year, which would be fine as a CF/Leadoff guy if he were a better base runner and could advance when he gets on. He's more a VERY good bottom of the order hitter for an NL team/4th OF to me.

Jones is going to give you very good defense, hit around .275-.280 and will hit you 20-30 HR. It's two different types of offensive players we are comparing, but I'd like to think a CF with that much offensive upside wins out over a bottom of the order CF. I think Jay has done well to this point, but I also think he's overachieved a little bit. He's not going to develop into Jones.