Pessimism

[NewMarketSean]

I guess it depends on what you focus on. The Korea thing doesn't bother me - baseball is a world game and the KBL will realize that eventually. It's a petty reaction.

I also think the potential impact of Chen and Wada is underestimated. The NPL is no joke, most consider the level of competition just below MLB. We've seen several Japanese players come over and have a major impact for their team. The fact that those two guys play in the O's area of most critical need magnifies their importance.

In fact, at this point, I see no place where we got worse in the offseason. No position players, no pitching slots, not in the minors, not in the front office, not on the payroll, not anywhere.

We didn't get much better, either.

I know it still comes down to the players we developed on our own though...that has not changed. I just don't have faith that they will improve enough, ever, to elevate the Orioles to a contender.

[TonySoprano]

At least there is not much false optimism this year.

Unless you're one of a small handful that take Duke at his word that this team, not the one in 2013 and beyond, will be above .500 in the W/L column.

[rubberarm21]

I think God has a longer view, and is still getting us back for '89, and all of Earl's teams that won 97 games with five platoons of castoffs in the lineup and a bunch of 18-win starters with 86 mph fastballs.

I absolutely guarantee you that SG would have been livid that they didn't do more to shore up the future after 1989, since much of the gains came from peaking (or peak age) journeymen like Tettleton, Milligan, Orsulak, Phil Bradley, and pitchers with ridiculously poor stuff and pheripherals like Jeff Ballard, Dave Johnson, Mark Thurmond, Kevin Hickey. Don't even mention Cal's baby brother with the .587 OPS. It was piss poor reasoning to keep them around!

Between '88 and '89 there probably would have been a clamor to trade Ripken, and disbelief that Hemond collected all this AAAA trash and was trying to sell it as a major league team.

This is a joke.. yeah, we have the same type of team we had in '89... but we don't have Milwaukee and Cleveland in our division anymore and the Yankees and Sox are far more formidable now than they were then. Plus, the Rays and Blue Jays are light years ahead of the rest of that division back then. It's not us... it's them.

1989 is 23 years ago!

[DrungoHazewood]

The difference between 1989 and 2012 is that the other 4 teams in our division are head and shoulders in front of us in pretty much every aspect of being a professional baseball team and have been for a long time.

Back in '89 the Jays beat us by 1 game, the Red Sox won 83 games, the Yankees, 74 and the Rays were 9 years away from being a baseball team. All the other teams in our division were in the midst of decades long stretches of futility.

I agree that the Orioles play in a much more competitive environment than that did in 1989. But they also have the advantage of a more favorable playoff setup.

Those were the days when a grouping of players similar to the Cleveland Indians team from Major League could put together a freak-season and come within a game of the post-season.

That kind of thing doesn't happen any more and if it does, it happens much more infrequently.

I don't think there's much or any evidence of teams coming out of nowhere less today than in years past. The 2008 Rays. The 2011 D'backs improved by 29 games. The '06 Tigers were in the Series a year after having a record two games better than the '11 Orioles.

The only major difference I see is that the O's, Royals, and Pirates have established a kind of permanent underclass that hasn't been seen in many generations.

[DrungoHazewood]

This is a joke.. yeah, we have the same type of team we had in '89... but we don't have Milwaukee and Cleveland in our division anymore and the Yankees and Sox are far more formidable now than they were then. Plus, the Rays and Blue Jays are light years ahead of the rest of that division back then. It's not us... it's them.

1989 is 23 years ago!

What are you talking about? I'm not suggesting the '12 Orioles are the '89 Orioles. We were talking about the reactions if there had been a Hangout in '89. The odds of the O's having a Why Not? season in '12 are slight.

[DrungoHazewood]

This. A million times this! For a minute, I thought I was the only person who thought this way.

But it's true, they're extremely unlikely to compete this year. And signing a bunch of peaking players to very expensive contracts is a sure way to win 78 or 81 games while finishing in 5th place and having a bunch of mediocre 34-year-olds signed to huge deals when Machado and Bundy are productive.

[joeyc]

Take a deep breath buddy, this ain't gonna pretty....

Just remember... this is all part of the 3 year plan :mwahaha:

Oh God, not another 3 year plan.

[Fla_O'sfan]

Oh God, not another 3 year plan.

And if you don't like the results of this 3 year plan.......stick around! Maybe you'll like the one after that!

[HankGChuck]

But it's true, they're extremely unlikely to compete this year. And signing a bunch of peaking players to very expensive contracts is a sure way to win 78 or 81 games while finishing in 5th place and having a bunch of mediocre 34-year-olds signed to huge deals when Machado and Bundy are productive.

Is this a reason not to sign FAs?

[Barnaby Graves]

The Guthrie trade pissed me off so much and leaves me little hope we'll exploit Adam Jones' value before he runs far, far away from here.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is this a reason not to sign FAs?

It's certainly a reason to not sign free agents when you're a bad team. Free agents are almost always 28+ years old, they're almost always post-peak. Their first year is very likely to be their best. So when you sign a Fielder or a Teixeira to a 7-year deal at $20M+ per, you're wasting their best year or two or three on a team that's not going to win and provide the revenues to cover their contract. And by the time you've built up an organization that can win, they'll be average players taking up 25% of your payroll.

Now, if you're a 86-win team and you sign Prince Fielder there's a darned good chance that just put you in the playoffs and blew up your revenue streams for years to come.

[luismatos4prez]

But it's true, they're extremely unlikely to compete this year. And signing a bunch of peaking players to very expensive contracts is a sure way to win 78 or 81 games while finishing in 5th place and having a bunch of mediocre 34-year-olds signed to huge deals when Machado and Bundy are productive.

I'm quoting this for emphasis. Doing something for the sake of doing something is not productive to winning in the future.

Sit tight. They're going to win 75 games give or take a couple this year. They aren't going to go 40-122 like some of the clowns are here are suggesting, and they aren't going to make a run at the playoffs. Then, we can evaluate the cavalry, and the young hitters, determine who is good enough to be in the rotation/lineup of the Baltimore Bundys, and Duquette will try to attract some decent FAs next year. There are some good ones out there.

[24fps]

The only major difference I see is that the O's, Royals, and Pirates have established a kind of permanent underclass that hasn't been seen in many generations.

The Royals and Pirates have much more of an excuse than the Orioles IMO.

Last year the Royals' payroll was 30th out of 30 and the Pirates' was 27th. The Orioles' payroll was 18th, not far from 14th. The O's simply have to do better at extracting value from the dollars they spend.

One interpretation of what Duquette is doing is trying to begin the process of implementing that. That's what it looks like to me and that's the main reason I refuse to get too pessimistic this year.

[DrungoHazewood]

The Royals and Pirates have much more of an excuse than the Orioles IMO.

Last year the Royals' payroll was 30th out of 30 and the Pirates' was 27th. The Orioles' payroll was 18th, not far from 14th. The O's simply have to do better at extracting value from the dollars they spend.

One interpretation of what Duquette is doing is trying to begin the process of implementing that. That's what it looks like to me and that's the main reason I refuse to get too pessimistic this year.

I don't think any of them have excuses, but yes, I'm hopeful Duquette is revamping how they value players. I'm much more in favor of rolling the dice on bargain-priced NPB guys than the $6-10M former stars looking for a last paycheck.

The Royals and Pirates have lower bars to clear. And they've had long runs of abject stupidity. More than anything all three teams have struggled with self-inflicted wounds.

[atomic]

Is predicting 60 wins pessimistic or optomistic?