Tillman

[Flash- bd]

And that's different than saying, "If he continues pitching well he'll be a good pitcher", how exactly? "IF" his stuff and command remain as they are, he will be a good pitcher.

Honestly, and forgive me for my transparent stupidity which you've well diagnosed, I don't see the difference.

I've never disagreed w that. However, there is a REAL possibility they don't remain so, and thus, your "floor" projection is far too high.

But I guess that's a strawman.

There's a huge difference. One: most would not even argue he pitched that well through the first 3 games. He had 1 really good start against a really bad hitting team, 1 disastrous start, and 1 good start against a decent team, so I don't know where you got the "pitching well" from, which is crucial to make your straw-man work. What you made me out to be saying would be something like this: [after Miguel Gonzalez's first start] If Miguel Gonzalez pitches like he did today against Anaheim, he'll have a great career. That's akin to a Jim Hunter line to lead-in the ballgame the other day which I made fun of in the game thread: "The Orioles have shown when their offense plays their best they're as good as any offense in baseball." (followed by stats from 2 games in which the Orioles offense did exceedingly well) What I was saying is something more like this: As long as Chris Tillman's stuff doesn't depreciate, or he doesn't lose his command Rick Ankiel style, the tools he showed today make me very confident he will have a good big league career. (Which, again, is totally consistent with everything I've said about Tillman since I first watched him pitch this season against Seattle, including my self-quoted parts up there, like: "Guys with stuff as good as Tillman can pitch badly but still finish with an ERA of 4.50-4.75.", or "But there's not many players in the league (or in the minors) who can even compete stuff-wise with what Tillman was flashing tonight. Of course just because he pitched like a TOR starter doesn't mean he's going to all of a sudden become one, but there's not many people who can realistically say they have that upside. And even if they don't reach it, they tend to settle down as good #2-4 starters as we're seeing with Jason Hammel."

EDIT: (In fact, in this latter quote, I basically make a point of going out of my way to say I'm not saying what you claimed I was saying in your straw-man.)

This is my last response. I'm sure you will post something silly; some disingenuous equivocation, some attempt to twist my words, but I'm going to resist the temptation to respond regardless. Like I said, I should know a lot better than to even get this far into an argument with you, and I regret it already.

[Lucky Jim]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned that I think is pretty important is that Tillman works across his body and hides the ball until very late. He looks a bit like Jered Weaver though Weaver does it to a larger extent. A motion like that tends to be hard on various body parts, but it also makes the fastball play up significantly. Even two years ago when Chris was pretty bad and his velocity was high 80s, he'd get swings and misses on fastballs in the zone. It definitely gets on hitters. I lost track of the number of hitters last night that thought they were on a fastball but fouled it over the other dugout. He did that to Casper Wells like 6 times.

91 mph from Tillman will likely play faster than 93 from Jake Arrieta. Jake throws with an open front hip/leg that allows the batter to see it earlier. It makes a ton of difference. It is also one of the reasons I'm not nearly as high on Jake as most folks. His FB velocity will have to be high to succeed due to his motion. Tillman won't have that issue from what I see from him.

This. Thanks VaT. I'm not sure if it's Weaver-like, but what I noticed from the beginning in his minor league starts was the difficulty that batters were having catching up to his FB even when it was at 90-91MPH. I was going to post something like what you posted - it makes Tillman relatively difficult to hit at 91-92 (particularly with his change) and very difficult to hit at higher velocities. I think BD has posted some interesting thoughts on Tillman, but in my mind maintaining league-average command of his pitches is more important to his success than top-end velocity. That said, I wouldn't have put stock in his rebound (in the minors) if I didn't see any uptick in velocity. Even on a down night last night, he touched 94 and sat around 92 for the last innings.

My ignore list gets longer and longer.

[Fired-Up]

People can say all they want about fastball command, fastball velocity, curveball command, etc. The fact is Tillman is succeeding thus far. And a lot of that has to do with the fact he has 5, count em, yes, 5 MLB pitches. You don't know what's coming and his repetoire is very deep.

[CA-ORIOLE]

People can say all they want about fastball command, fastball velocity, curveball command, etc. The fact is Tillman is succeeding thus far. And a lot of that has to do with the fact he has 5, count em, yes, 5 MLB pitches. You don't know what's coming and his repetoire is very deep.

I think most people understand that. His array of secondaries have generally been considered. Stiil need a FB to set them up.

[Lucky Jim]

I think most people understand that. His array of secondaries have generally been considered. Stiil need a FB to set them up.

My guess is, his separate thread having failed to bring enough attention, he would now like to hijack this thread with his thesis.

[OFFNY]

The fact he has 5, count em, yes, 5 MLB pitches.

[OFFNY]

.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS O(August 11th)

Alex Gordon - LF

Alcides Escobar - SS

Mike Moustakas - 3B

Billy Butler - DH

Lorenzo Cain - CF

Salvador Perez - C

Jeff Francoeur - RF

Eric Hosmer - 1B

Chris Getz - 2B

OPPOSING PITCHER: Luis Mendoza - RHP (5-8, 4.36 ERA)

http://baseballpress.com/lineup.php

[Mashed Potatoes]

I think it's kind of unfair of us to dredge up this argument in this thread and bring the rest of the thread down with it, so can we agree that I'm making this response--it's my last (to you, anyways)--and you can respond afterwards? (but please, try to be reasonable.)

This is my last response. I'm sure you will post something silly; some disingenuous equivocation, some attempt to twist my words, but I'm going to resist the temptation to respond regardless. Like I said, I should know a lot better than to even get this far into an argument with you, and I regret it already.

How can we ever trust your word again?

[Flash- bd]

How can we ever trust your word again?

Pfft, only dopes trusted me in the first place. I'm about as trustworthy as Iago.

That, or Roger Clemens under oath.

[furryburres]

The only time Francoeur faced Tillman, he struck out twice in two total at-bats. Let's hope that Francoeur's knees are buckling!

[OFFNY]

.

CHRIS TILLMAN O(vs. ROYALS, 8/11)

IP:. 5.67

H:o 6

R:O 6

BB: 2 *

SO: 5

Pitches: 109 (58 Strikes, 51 Balls)

2012 ERA: 3.40

* Tillman had 1 hit batsman.

[LookitsPuck]

Tillman's curve-ball was nonexistent today. He just couldn't control it at all. Didn't throw his change-up enough, and hitters were just sitting fastball. Miguel Socolovich didn't do us any favours by allowing 2 inherited runners to score (granted, the defense didn't help, either).

[Roll Tide]

Tillman's curve-ball was nonexistent today. He just couldn't control it at all. Didn't throw his change-up enough, and hitters were just sitting fastball. Miguel Socolovich didn't do us any favours by allowing 2 inherited runners to score (granted, the defense didn't help, either).

It looked to me like he was over throwing ...What worries me about this group is when they struggle its always runs given up in innings 1 or 2

[Moose Milligan]

Needed a better start from him, especially against a cupcake lineup like the KC's.

[EagleOriole]

Needed a better start from him, especially against a cupcake lineup like the KC's.

Cupcake lineup? Gordon is killing the ball. Escobar batting .300. Butler is like the Hulk against us. Perez batting over .300. Cain is looking pretty good. I would take Moustakas in a heartbeat. There is a lot to like about KCs lineup.