Sports Illustrated power rankings

[OFFNY]

.

1-Run Games: 20-6

2-Run Games: 15-9

________

Combined:Oo. 35-15

[Lucky Jim]

.

1-Run Games: 20-6

2-Run Games: 15-9

________

Combined:Oo. 35-15

And 13-19 in blowouts.

Yes. Our bullpen was awesome and remains very good. We have taken immense advantage of games where the bullpen is leveraged.

[OFFNY]

And 13-19 in blowouts.

Yes. Our bullpen was awesome and remains very good. We have taken immense advantage of games where the bullpen is leveraged.

That's great.

[Fan4Life]

.

1-Run Games: 20-6

2-Run Games: 15-9

________

Combined:Oo. 35-15

And 13-19 in blowouts.

Which leads me to ask.... isn't this more likely to continue, not less?

[OFFNY]

Which leads me to ask .... isn't this more likely to continue, not less?

Fan, if I knew the answer to that, I'd be a very rich man.

[SilentJames]

Another thing about the one-run games thing. When you just look at the run totals you sometimes lose the context of the games. This would take a lot of research but I wonder just how many of those one-run wins were games that"became" one run games due to a garbage time homer or some such thing.

How many of those one-run wins were games where the Orioles had a two-three run lead in the late innings and a team gets a, essentially worthless, two-run homer in like the eighth. Then Johnson gets a save.

I know the implication of these games are that the team is lucky to have that record, or unlucky to have the reverse. But isn't it possible - just possible, that the Orioles for whatever the reason simply flourish in these situations?

[SilentJames]

And 13-19 in blowouts.

Yes. Our bullpen was awesome and remains very good. We have taken immense advantage of games where the bullpen is leveraged.

So in other words the Orioles have done a good job in winning games they should win? And taking the chances when they can get them?

Going to what I said earlier, how many of these one-two run wins would have been a 3-4-5 run win if it were not for a garbage time homer or couple meaningless runs scored?

[Fan4Life]

Fan, if I knew the answer to that, I'd be a very rich man.

Yeah but there is a debate going on about our run differential and that it likely can't continue. I think it's more likely to continue. When we win, it will be close, when we lose, not so much.

[OFFNY]

Yeah but there is a debate going on about our run differential and that it likely can't continue. I think it's more likely to continue. When we win, it will be close, when we lose, not so much.

Oh, OK. Since I'm here, I'll go with 83-79 overall for the finish, and I have no idea what the run differential will be, or if it will necessarily carry a lot of significance in determining the fate of the remaining 57 games that we have left to play. All in all, I think that the Orioles are pretty much what there record says they are ...... a young team that is surprisingly competitive in the tough division that they are in, and are likely to remain that way from now until season's end. Also, there's always the possibility that there are other factor(s) besides run-differential that is carrying/will carry a higher significance as to why our win-loss record is what it is now, and will be what it will be when it's over.

[SilentJames]

Exactly, we are quickly approaching a point where "look at the run-diff" is going to have less of an impact on the overall record. Could the Orioles just go on a 2005, or 2002 like implosion, sure. But this team has shown the ability to stay out of long losing streaks all year, at the same time the ability to stay out of long winning streaks.

And that right there, the latter part, is where the run diff really hurts. The Orioles all year seem to have gotten into a pattern of win three close games, get blown out, win four close games, get blown out twice. The point is that the Orioles are still winning more games than they lose and they could be the weird team to significantly beat their run diff and pythag.

Of course that means if the Orioles do somehow make the postseason they will be called "the worst playoff team of all time" by all the saber-heads and very little respect will be given.

[Lucky Jim]

So in other words the Orioles have done a good job in winning games they should win? And taking the chances when they can get them?

Going to what I said earlier, how many of these one-two run wins would have been a 3-4-5 run win if it were not for a garbage time homer or couple meaningless runs scored?

For all of your efforts, you're not really "out-thinking" the Pythag here. The Orioles have one distinct strength: the bullpen. In those games where this strength can become a factor, the Orioles have a very good (probably a little lucky, but statistically supported) record. In every other kind of game, they do not.*

Our offense is not particularly good. We're 11th out of 14 in OPS - which inflates our competence because it over-rates SLG. We're 10th out of 14 in runs.

Our starting pitching is pretty bad. We're 10th out of 14 in starter ERA. Last in CG. Tied for last in shut-outs. And 12th out of 14 in quality starts.

Our bullpen has been very good-to-excellent. W/o question. Though this is declining. We're first in saves. But we're now 6th in BP ERA.

Our defense is not particularly good. We're middle-of-the-road in defensive efficiency. But we're tied for worst w/ the Tigers in team DRS and have the worst URZ/150 as a team in the league.

Our team speed is not particularly good. We're 10th out of 14 in team speed.

That's not a "good" team that's been blown out a few times, unless we're packing an awful lot of awfulness into 19 games.

*They've actually blown 14 saves and yet still managed to win a number of games. That seems pretty fluke-y. But more power to them.

[DrungoHazewood]

Which leads me to ask.... isn't this more likely to continue, not less?

You mean you think it's likely that the O's continue to win 70% of their close games? No, no it's not. Since 1901 the 2012 O's have the 10th best record among all teams in games decided by 2 runs or less. Out of several thousand teams in the last 112 years, the O's are 10th in close game winning percentage. The two teams from this century with better records in games decided by 2 runs or less are the 100-win 2003 Giants, and the 103-win 2002 A's.

Oh, and actually, the 2012 Orioles currently have the best record in one-run games in the database. Since 1901. The single best winning percentage, basically in history, in one-run games. Think of all the best teams you can - the '27 Yankees, the '61 Yankees, the '98 Yankees, the Cubs that won 116, the early Pirates team that won 109, the dynastic Orioles of the '70s... the '12 Orioles have a better record in one-run games than ALL OF THEM. (Strangely enough three of the top four are the '12 Orioles, the '81 Orioles, and the '70 Orioles.)

So, no, it's not terribly likely that our little hometown team is going to continue to win one-run games at that pace.

[Lucky Jim]

And that right there, the latter part, is where the run diff really hurts. The Orioles all year seem to have gotten into a pattern of win three close games, get blown out, win four close games, get blown out twice.

If this pattern exists, it would be really great to see it.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yeah but there is a debate going on about our run differential and that it likely can't continue. I think it's more likely to continue. When we win, it will be close, when we lose, not so much.

That's not true. The Orioles have lost 31 games by 1 to 4 runs, and 19 games by 5+. They've lost more games by three or fewer runs than by more than five. So... more often than not when they lose, they lose close games.

[DrungoHazewood]

The Orioles all year seem to have gotten into a pattern of win three close games, get blown out, win four close games, get blown out twice.

If this pattern exists, it would be really great to see it.

Just looking quickly through the gamelog for the year it doesn't seem to be true to any meaningful extent. Few of the blowouts follow one- or two-run losses. Many of them come after several moderate losses.