Sports Illustrated power rankings

[SilentJames]

Just playing. But yeah the Orioles have beaten their peripherals all year, if you will.

There has to be other examples of this stuff, I just don't have the time/ patience to figure it out. But the Orioles are doing something very weird. Calling it luck seems like a cop out to me. Over the course of a month, or even two, sure I'll buy luck. But they have been doing this all season so there has to be an explanation in the numbers and game logs to explain it.

[bluedog]

What's your evidence? I've never heard of run differential being used as a predictive tool within a season. If you told me that the team would continue to run a negative run differential for the rest of the season, at the same rate as currently, then I'd agree it is unlikely the team will have a .500+ record the rest of the way. The Orioles did outscore their opponents in April, and were just -4 runs in May, so I don't necessarily take the June/July differential as predictive of August/September. The offense looks a lot better with Markakis back than it did while he was out. (That said, the run differential is -24 in that period.)

At the end of the day, pitching will decide how we do. If we allow 5.5 runs a game as we have for the last 3 weeks, forget the playoffs. But as we learned when Buck arrived here 2 years ago, pitching can take abrupt turns sometimes.

Agree with your line of thinking here Frobby. Run differential may be predictive in a vacuum, but teams change as the season goes on. Gonzalez and Tillman's performance through the rest of the season is in no way predicted by our current run differential. I have my doubts as to the actual predictive value of run differential in the real world.

[Dannyboy]

Just playing. But yeah the Orioles have beaten their peripherals all year, if you will.

There has to be other examples of this stuff, I just don't have the time/ patience to figure it out. But the Orioles are doing something very weird. Calling it luck seems like a cop out to me. Over the course of a month, or even two, sure I'll buy luck. But they have been doing this all season so there has to be an explanation in the numbers and game logs to explain it.

It's one game at a time. Worrying about today's game and only today's game. Not resting on the teams past success and not dwelling on their past failures. IMO, I think thats the key to this season success.

[Frobby]

For all of your efforts, you're not really "out-thinking" the Pythag here. The Orioles have one distinct strength: the bullpen. In those games where this strength can become a factor, the Orioles have a very good (probably a little lucky, but statistically supported) record. In every other kind of game, they do not.*

Our offense is not particularly good. We're 11th out of 14 in OPS - which inflates our competence because it over-rates SLG. We're 10th out of 14 in runs.

Since runs per game is the only category that really matters, if we are 10th in runs I don't think that ranking 11th in OPS "inflates our competence". In any event I feel our offense could move up a spot or two before its over, as they did in 2011. They have underperformed my expectations so I won't be surprised if they do better going forward.

On the whole, though, very valid post.

[SilentJames]

What's your evidence? I've never heard of run differential being used as a predictive tool within a season. If you told me that the team would continue to run a negative run differential for the rest of the season, at the same rate as currently, then I'd agree it is unlikely the team will have a .500+ record the rest of the way. The Orioles did outscore their opponents in April, and were just -4 runs in May, so I don't necessarily take the June/July differential as predictive of August/September. The offense looks a lot better with Markakis back than it did while he was out. (That said, the run differential is -24 in that period.)

At the end of the day, pitching will decide how we do. If we allow 5.5 runs a game as we have for the last 3 weeks, forget the playoffs. But as we learned when Buck arrived here 2 years ago, pitching can take abrupt turns sometimes.

It's one game at a time. Worrying about today's game and only today's game. Not resting on the teams past success and not dwelling on their past failures. IMO, I think thats the key to this season success.

Just looking at June, Where our Run Diff took a real nose dive.

We lost 13 games in June, SEVEN of those games were by 5 or more runs. Those seven games also included four shutouts and total a run diff of -45.

Meanwhile there were only three blowouts in our 13 June wins. Giving us a +14.

Blowout run diff in June, -31.

Non-blowout record in June 10-6, run diff of +1

June was also significant as all 10 non blowout wins were either by one or two runs.

[Fan4Life]

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to SilentJames again.

[OFFNY]

RED SOX PROPAGANDA AD:

"Winning two close contests against the Yankees could be an igniter for the Red Sox to make a late season push."

Wow. 2 ENTIRE close contests from the Yankees ??? And they were close contests, which count for more, since they are clutch. It's much more impressive than if they would have blown the Yankees off the field. But hey, IF THEY HAD blown the Yankees off the field in those 2 games, then we simply would have played up that aspect of it, and described them as dominating beat-downs, through and through.

"With David Ortiz expected back this week, this could be the first time Boston's lineup is at full strength all season, which is scary for the rest of the AL East as only the Blue Jays have scored more runs this year."

REAL SCARY for the real of the A.L. East. Everyone is quivering in their boots about David Ortiz being back, and the Red Sox' lineup being AT FULL-STRENGTH. OOOHHH.

"The Red Sox do need to get a bit more out of Adrian Gonzalez if they want to make a big push though, as his 106 wRC+ would be his lowest of any season with 100 games and he has not taken a walk since June 24."

When making any sort of criticism of this team, be sure to TIPTOE VERY CAREFULLY with our choice of words ....... "The Red Sox do need to get a bit more out of Adrian Gonzalez, as his numbers are cra ....... eh, I mean his 106 wRC+ would be the lowest of any season with 100 games."

P.S. Our deepest apologies to both Adrian Gonzalez individually and the Red Sox as a whole if you feel that we may have dissed you in the slightest way with that last Adrian Gonzalez statement. That WAS NOT our intention. If you deem it necessary, we will promptly issue a public apology for sullying the name and the reputation of your players and your team.

OK, I have to admit that they weren't as bad with their crush on the Red Sox this time. Still, they can't help themselves from waving the red pom-poms at the end:

"The Red Sox certainly have the talent to make a late season push, so counting them out of it in mid-August may not be wise."

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/baseball/mlb/08/13/fangraphs-power-rankings-week-18/index.html#ixzz23eo6Howj

[SrMeowMeow]

Are people still arguing against "run differential is predictive"? It's a complete strawman.

[Lucky Jim]

Are people still arguing against "run differential is predictive"? It's a complete strawman.

Isn't that like a week old.

[SilentJames]

How many times does one have to write the phrase "...they are unlikely to keep it up..." and be wrong before one stops thinking that. I mean, the run diff since the middle of July is well positive and if we keep playing this well that negative differential will look a lot better.

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2

[SrMeowMeow]

How many times does one have to write the phrase "...they are unlikely to keep it up..." and be wrong before one stops thinking that. I mean, the run diff since the middle of July is well positive and if we keep playing this well that negative differential will look a lot better.

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2

Do you not understand the concept of a probable outcome? Do you not understand that something can be likely and still not happen?

[CA-ORIOLE]

[video=youtube;-OaaoqObzLE]

[SrMeowMeow]

[video=youtube;bXXThSZjNvQ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXXThSZjNvQ

[GoldGlove21]

5-4

3-4

3-2

3-1

5-3

2-9

2-1

Run Diff: -3

Record: 5-2

I hate the run differential talk, but I get it.

[SilentJames]

Do you not understand the concept of a probable outcome? Do you not understand that something can be likely and still not happen?

Yes. I fully understand that. I was just saying that when it keeps getting brought up over and over and over and over and over again once a week since May it would be nice to see one of these national guys actually address the fact that the team is playing very good baseball, has been since mid July and really is not showing any signs of slowing down.

Sent from my DROID BIONIC using Tapatalk 2