Sports Illustrated power rankings

[scottbbfm]

Ok - so if you go through the games and made a rule that you can't win or lose by more than 5, the O's would be 491-517 translating to a record of 58-64; 2 wins better than their Pyth. The Red Sox on the other hand would be 544-532 for a W/L record of 62-60; two losses worse.

Repeating it with 3 runs, the O's would be 493-468 for a pyth of 64-58; 8 wins better.

Red Sox would be 516-516; 61-61; 3 losses worse.

So it's just proving what we already knew - O's win close games, Red Sox don't and also blow teams out from time to time and have scored a whole bunch of meaningless runs.

[ledzepp8]

Because I don't think that's what it's supposed to represent. It's supposed to be a ranking of the strongest teams. It's possible you can have a terrible division, in the NL, where the first place team would really be a 70-ish win team in the AL East. Not only that, but they could be a 84-win team that is overshooting their Pythag by 5 games, and has some bizarre split like 15 games under .500 against teams with winning records. They could have a playoff slot almost locked up, and really be the 20th or 25th-best team in the MLB.

Prime example: 2005 Padres.

I get what you're saying, but it really doesn't apply to the Orioles. This isn't like the Seahawks winning their division with a 7-9 record and presumably being ranked towards the bottom if the power rankings. This is a team leading in one of the wild card spots and having one of the ten best records in MLB in the hardest division in the sport.

There's nothing logical about trying to put the Red Sox 13 spots ahead of a team who has owned them all season. There's nothing logical about trying say that the Red Sox, a team who is I think 12 games out of first, are the 8th best team in baseball.

[DrungoHazewood]

Im sorry but at some point you need to get over the algebra and look at the real world.

This isn't D & D, the game isn't played with dice and graph paper, and WAR doesn't get you in the playoffs. And this list is just ridiculous, not even the orioles stuff but the Red Sox I mean how can a team who has lost five of its last seven games, losing Carl Crawford, in complete chaos and just fired its pitching coach - the first of many firings most likely be considered one of the top 10 "strongest" teams in baseball?

I get it, run diff and WAR and that's great but come the hell on. At some point you would think these guys would look at what is happening in the real world.

Like I said, if you want the standings, go look at the standings. Whatever the ESPN power rankings are supposed to be, and whether or not they achieve that, they ain't the standings.

What I'm hearing in this thread is that the power rankings should just reflect the standings. At which point there is no point.

[Can_of_corn]

Like I said, if you want the standings, go look at the standings. Whatever the ESPN power rankings are supposed to be, and whether or not they achieve that, they ain't the standings.

What I'm hearing in this thread is that the power rankings should just reflect the standings. At which point there is no point.

You are forcing me to repeat myself.

I don't think the ranking should just reflect the standings, I just don't think they should entirely ignore the standings either. Over 120 games into the season seems shortsighted to completely ignore W/L records.

[Frobby]

Like I said, if you want the standings, go look at the standings. Whatever the ESPN power rankings are supposed to be, and whether or not they achieve that, they ain't the standings.

What I'm hearing in this thread is that the power rankings should just reflect the standings. At which point there is no point.

Well, there is no point in power rankings as far as I'm concerned. But apparently some people care, or this thread (and many others on this topic) wouldn't exist.

[CA-ORIOLE]

You are forcing me to repeat myself.

I don't think the ranking should just reflect the standings, I just don't think they should entirely ignore the standings either. Over 120 games into the season seems shortsighted to completely ignore W/L records.

How are they modeled and what's the purpose? If it's only a snapshot of a specifc time (i.e. what the state of the team is right now) and some sort of projection of performance going forward, that might represent some value to me that I'd rather not have muddled up by bringing in the standings.

[OFFNY]

FWIW, ESPN has the Orioles at 14, 7 in the AL, bunched with the Tigers, A's and Angels. Seems just about right.

FOX SPORTS has us at #11:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/powerRankings

CBS SPORTS had us at #10 six days ago (they have a new set of rankings coming out tomorrow):

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/powerrankings

USA TODAY has us at #12:

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/story/power-rankings/54331380/1

[crissfan172]

I can't believe people are still complaining about this. It's a completely objective ranking using WAR. It's not like they're trying to belittle the Orioles by ranking them so lowly.

[Can_of_corn]

I can't believe people are still complaining about this. It's a completely objective ranking using WAR. It's not like they're trying to belittle the Orioles by ranking them so lowly.

For the record I'm not complaining, I'm laughing. I think a lot of us view it more as a joke then an affront at this stage.

[ledzepp8]

I can't believe people are still complaining about this. It's a completely objective ranking using WAR. It's not like they're trying to belittle the Orioles by ranking them so lowly.

Put the Orioles aside, because it's not just the Orioles that are getting dicked over. Do you think that there is any logic in claiming the Red Sox to be the 8th best team in MLB just because their WAR says they should be?

[SilentJames]

I can't believe people are still complaining about this. It's a completely objective ranking using WAR. It's not like they're trying to belittle the Orioles by ranking them so lowly.

But what when WAR is so completely not matching what is happening in real life? So Boston is really the 8th strongest team in baseball? Really?

I get it, but this is clearly a situation where WAR is not telling the whole story to anyone who is watching the games.

This isn't about the orioles or some perceived slight. To me it is a discussion about how you view the game. And these rankings are exhibit one in the argument that the numbers alone don't tell the whole story.

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[crissfan172]

For the record I'm not complaining, I'm laughing. I think a lot of us view it more as a joke then an affront at this stage.

Oh...I'm completely certain that you're not. It wouldn't have fit your personality, or at least what I've perceived it to be.

Put the Orioles aside, because it's not just the Orioles that are getting dicked over. Do you think that there is any logic in claiming the Red Sox to be the 8th best team in MLB just because their WAR says they should be?

But what when WAR is so completely not matching what is happening in real life? So Boston is really the 8th strongest team in baseball? Really?

I get it, but this is clearly a situation where WAR is not telling the whole story to anyone who is watching the games.

This isn't about the orioles or some perceived slight. To me it is a discussion about how you view the game. And these rankings are exhibit one in the argument that the numbers alone don't tell the whole story.

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No...of course not. I'm not saying that the rankings are good, or even that WAR is a smart way to create power rankings. They wanted to try something different, and it's producing both surprising and interesting results. I see no reason for them to abandon it now that the rankings aren't making sense. It's an experiment of sorts in looking at the way teams should be performing vs the way they are performing. The whole thing is worthy of discussion, but unfortunately I feel like too much of the focus is on why the Orioles should be higher or why the Red Sox should be lower, and not why these teams are outperforming or underperforming their team WAR.

Of course...doing that is basically a rehash of the run differential debate, so maybe it's better this way.

[OFFNY]

But what when WAR is so completely not matching what is happening in real life? So Boston is really the 8th strongest team in baseball? Really?

I get it, but this is clearly a situation where WAR is not telling the whole story to anyone who is watching the games.

This isn't about the orioles or some perceived slight. To me it is a discussion about how you view the game. And these rankings are exhibit one in the argument that the numbers alone don't tell the whole story.

I do think it's interesting that all 3 of the other power rankings that I referred to in my previous post all have the Red Sox at # 17 ... very consistent ... while the WAR rankings have them at a seemingly inexplicable # 8.

It's kind of like when you watch a boxing match, and one guy dominates the other guy. The entire crowd, and 2 of the 3 judges see it that way, also ...... and then, a 3rd judge comes along and not only does he not have a similar tally on his scorecard, but he actually has the other fighter winning. And it's like, "What fight was HE watching ???"

.

[SilentJames]

I can respect the fact that they are trying something different, if I felt the intention was to assess how closely WAR matches up with the play on the field.

They have WAR wins and actual wins, but it seems that the actual wins provide no real bearing on the ranking and they completely ignore them.

Again this is all futile, these things mean nothing but I do think it provides an interesting debate on the trend toward the increased sabermetric-fied view of the game. Sabermetrically speaking this is a weird season with historic things happening. The numbers that should add up are not, these WAR based rankings are proof enough of that, and that is great for the overall study of the game.

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[Uli2001]

The Ranger broadcast guy said something interesting during the game: there is nothing in the stats of the Orioles that say this should be a team 10 games (now 11) over .500, EXCEPT that they hit a lot of home-runs and have a terrific bullpen. I think in the end, if you want statistics to explain the O's W-L record, that is it. Other than that it's all intangibles, which this team also has in bunches. Those will never be captured by stats though.