Lohse signs with Brewers

[MurphDogg]

No, because a good agent would have had him take the qualifying offer. And then when the Cardinals traded him, hold the new team up for ransom.

Why? Could a 35 year-old Lohse expect more than 2/$20 even with a decent year? No way should he have taken the qualifying offer, get the most money you can when you can get it.

[Migrant Redbird]

Why? Could a 35 year-old Lohse expect more than 2/$20 even with a decent year? No way should he have taken the qualifying offer, get the most money you can when you can get it.

The Milwaukee deal is $20M better than the qualifying offer. Lohse was right to take it. The only question is whether he should have held out until June 1st in hopes of getting a much better deal from a team desperate for starting pitching. I would say not.

Bernie Miklacz examines the Post-Cardinal Pitching Syndrome in today's St. Louis Post Dispatch.

Here?s a list of guys who left the Cardinals after making at least 15 starts here, with the Before and After ERAs.

Matt Morris: 3.61 ERA as a Cardinal; 5.19 post-Cardinals.

Andy Benes: 4.07 ERA as a Cardinal over two stints; 4.36 ERA during a two-year run with Arizona.

Jason Marquis: About the same, with a 4.60 ERA as a Cardinal and a 4.65 ERA post-Cardinal.

Woody Williams: 3.53 ERA as a Cardinal but a 4.66 post-Cardinal.

Jeff Suppan: 3.94 ERA as a Cardinal; 5.08 ERA in three-plus seasons in Milwaukee after signing as a free agent.

Todd Stottlemyre: 3.77 ERA as a Cardinal, 4.67 post-Cardinal.

Joel Pineiro: 4.14 ERA as a Cardinal; 4.47 after.

Jeff Weaver: he didn?t have much of a regular-season ERA for the Cardinals, but was a star of the 2006 postseason, winning a game in each round including the World Series clincher over Detroit. After that: 5.43 ERA.

Braden Looper: 4.50 ERA as a Cardinal starter; 5.22 after leaving.

Kent Bottenfield: 4.01 ERA as a Cardinal; 5.63 post-Cardinal.

Darren Oliver: 4.26 ERA as a Cardinal starter; 5.48 as a starter after departure.

Jason Simontacchi: 4.88 ERA as a Cardinal; 6.37 after.

I'm anxious to see how Lohse pitches his first time out. In 2008, he didn't sign until mid-March, then came into camp and was immediately the best starter in the rotation. Lohse has been good about working out and getting ready on his own, but he's 5 years older this time.

I like Lohse. He'd have been a lot better in 2009/2010 had it not been for a couple of fluke injuries. I wish him well, except when he faces the Cardinals, of course.

[backwardsk]

Very good post above.

The before and after, IMO, speaks to two things:

Dave Duncan is a pretty good pitching coach

Cardinals pitching have benefited from pitching in the NL central over the past decade or so.

I agree with MurphDog, very doubtful he gets $20mm in 14-15.

[Migrant Redbird]

Very good post above.

Thanks!

...The before and after, IMO, speaks to two things:

Dave Duncan is a pretty good pitching coach

I'm reminded of the much more extensive analysis of the "Leo Mazzone effect", which concluded that pitching for Leo was worth an average 0.63 runs off a pitcher's ERA. Odd, that effect didn't carry over when Leo moved to Baltimore, did it?

I think evaluating pitching coaches, batting coaches, and managers accurately is virtually impossible. I'm willing to concede that Leo and Dave Duncan were good pitching coaches, but that's as far as I can go when trying to compare them against everyone else.

What Dave Duncan did in St. Louis was to create an "adjunct pitching coach panel". Whenever any of his starters were throwing side sessions, all the other starters were standing around observing, analyzing, and offering suggestions. This way, it wasn't just Duncan's eyes, it was 5 sets of eyes watching each pitch to see if they could pick up something.

The heart of that "adjunct pitching coach staff" was Chris Carpenter. Carpenter's leadership will be missed as much as his pitching, if not more. Adam Wainwright understands he's expected to pick up that leadership mantle, but Carpenter was unique.

...Cardinals pitching have benefited from pitching in the NL central over the past decade or so.

Ah, that old "AL superiority" shibboleth again. I don't buy it.

[Can_of_corn]

Thanks!

I'm reminded of the much more extensive analysis of the "Leo Mazzone effect", which concluded that pitching for Leo was worth an average 0.63 runs off a pitcher's ERA. Odd, that effect didn't carry over when Leo moved to Baltimore, did it?

You don't get pitches three inches off the plate called strikes when you are playing the Yankees and Red Sox.

[backwardsk]

Thanks!

I'm reminded of the much more extensive analysis of the "Leo Mazzone effect", which concluded that pitching for Leo was worth an average 0.63 runs off a pitcher's ERA. Odd, that effect didn't carry over when Leo moved to Baltimore, did it?

I think evaluating pitching coaches, batting coaches, and managers accurately is virtually impossible. I'm willing to concede that Leo and Dave Duncan were good pitching coaches, but that's as far as I can go when trying to compare them against everyone else.

What Dave Duncan did in St. Louis was to create an "adjunct pitching coach panel". Whenever any of his starters were throwing side sessions, all the other starters were standing around observing, analyzing, and offering suggestions. This way, it wasn't just Duncan's eyes, it was 5 sets of eyes watching each pitch to see if they could pick up something.

The heart of that "adjunct pitching coach staff" was Chris Carpenter. Carpenter's leadership will be missed as much as his pitching, if not more. Adam Wainwright understands he's expected to pick up that leadership mantle, but Carpenter was unique.

Ah, that old "AL superiority" shibboleth again. I don't buy it.

Not so much an AL superiority complex as much as the NL central has been so poor outside of St Louis. Pittsburgh, Houston, Chicago...not so strong.

[24fps]

The Milwaukee deal is $20M better than the qualifying offer. Lohse was right to take it. The only question is whether he should have held out until June 1st in hopes of getting a much better deal from a team desperate for starting pitching. I would say not.

Bernie Miklacz examines the Post-Cardinal Pitching Syndrome in today's St. Louis Post Dispatch.

Here?s a list of guys who left the Cardinals after making at least 15 starts here, with the Before and After ERAs.

...

I'm anxious to see how Lohse pitches his first time out. In 2008, he didn't sign until mid-March, then came into camp and was immediately the best starter in the rotation. Lohse has been good about working out and getting ready on his own, but he's 5 years older this time.

I like Lohse. He'd have been a lot better in 2009/2010 had it not been for a couple of fluke injuries. I wish him well, except when he faces the Cardinals, of course.

If you hadn't brought up 2008 and the freak injuries in 2009-2010 I would have. 3/33 is a good deal for Lohse and Milwaukee is a good destination for him.

[backwardsk]

Slight derail, but Migrant Redbird, what do you think about Wainwright's new deal? He's good, but wow, that's a ton of money for a guy who's had elbow problems and will by in the high 30s when it's over.

[Migrant Redbird]

Slight derail, but Migrant Redbird, what do you think about Wainwright's new deal?

I think it's a good deal for St. Louis, but risky. They probably purchased insurance. I think it's at or below "market value", considering recent extensions to potential FA pitchers. I was afraid the "Kyle Lohse effect" would harden the Cardinals negotiating position. I think Wainwright would have had a difficult time getting this good a contract as an FA next winter, even if he has another CYA year.

Elbow problems don't concern me that much. TJ relapse isn't all that frequent. I think it's highly likely we get the Wainwright of 2009/2010 the next few years, the guy who finished 3rd and 2nd in the CYA voting and might have won if he'd had a "freak" hairdo or hadn't been competing for votes with Carpenter on the same staff.

Wainwright is a competitor in the Chris Carpenter mode, just not as "Darth Vaderish". Adam has already acknowledged he's got to take over Chris's leadership role, but says he's not Chris's half of the "good cop/bad cop" routine.

Wainwright "loves" St. Louis (he says) and St. Louis fans return the feeling. Losing him would have alienated fans more than the defection of Pujols did. This was a great move from a public relations perspective.