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TT: Showalter should be leery on how he uses Johnson


Tony-OH

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Buck really doesn't think outside the box and he likes to play the veterans...sticking by guys much too long (starting pitchers) or being overly confident (relievers, see Pedro Strop).

Never pitch Jim Johnson 3 days in a row, give the hot hand to the guy pitching. Tommy Hunter would have been perfect. I hate the save rule. And apparently Buck used to. He used to love the win rule. Not anymore. Maybe not ever? Just fluff?

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Buck really doesn't think outside the box and he likes to play the veterans...sticking by guys much too long (starting pitchers) or being overly confident (relievers, see Pedro Strop).

Never pitch Jim Johnson 3 days in a row, give the hot hand to the guy pitching. Tommy Hunter would have been perfect. I hate the save rule. And apparently Buck used to. He used to love the win rule. Not anymore. Maybe not ever? Just fluff?

I dont get the anti-Buck.

Prior to last year's playoffs, I hadn't sat in a playoff game, since Mussina was left in too long against the Yankees, and that was one long and HELLISH drought.

So forgive me, if I am a fan of Buck and like what him and DD are doing.

Its always easy to play the 2nd guess game.

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I dont get the anti-Buck.

Prior to last year's playoffs, I hadn't sat in a playoff game, since Mussina was left in too long against the Yankees, and that was one long and HELLISH drought.

So forgive me, if I am a fan of Buck and like what him and DD are doing.

Its always easy to play the 2nd guess game.

I'm not anti-Buck, I'm anti-some of his decisions. Putting Strop in high leverage situations is not defensible. Buck, with those decisions alone, cost us 2 games in the span of 9 days. With Jim Johnson, he's already the saves leader and nearly 40 IP. If we're worried about over using a guy, why pitch him 3 days in a row especially if he's ineffective when used as such? Tired arm = balls higher in zone.

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I dont get the anti-Buck.

Prior to last year's playoffs, I hadn't sat in a playoff game, since Mussina was left in too long against the Yankees, and that was one long and HELLISH drought.

So forgive me, if I am a fan of Buck and like what him and DD are doing.

Its always easy to play the 2nd guess game.

No one here is anti-Buck or anti-DD that I can tell in this thread. We are bringing up a situation where Buck could have reasonably not used Johnson for a third straight day. You then turn around and talk about saves and wins and call everyone else anti-Buck/DD.

I'm trying to be as nice as I can in this thread, but you probably need to do a little more reading and less posting until you can understand some of the concepts being discussed without resorting to 1982 statistics and generalizations.

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Hunter has 41.2 inning pitched, and you want him to get more opportunities to close, and yet, Johnson at 39 innings is overused.

That is really pretty close if you consider their roles. Hunter has pitched more than one inning 15 times this year including a three inning stint vs the Dodgers.

I don't like defined roles for relievers, but Buck does. It certainly doesn't help your argument to say Hunter should not have been used and Johnson should have based on innings pitched.

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Only way he is going to the All-Star game is if Davis gives him a ticket.

He has 27 saves and 5 blown saves. That is 84.3%. The historic rate at which teams win during save opportunities is 85%. Johnson has been average in that context.Fangrpahs has his WAR at .3, BR has it at .2.

His ERA is over 4, his ERA+ is 104.

He is walking almost 3 batter per 9 innings.

Right now JJ is a GUY. He is pretty much a generic relief pitcher who has a lot of saves due to the fact that he has more save chances then anyone else.

This is the point I've been trying to make in various threads, though you've spun it differently than I. JJ has been neither great nor terrible this year, overall. His save rate is basically average. There's no reason to call him an all-star this season, and there's no reason to treat the guy like he's Kevin Gregg 2011, either. He's in the middle.

The real question is what you expect from him the rest of the year -- will his ERA and save rate improve or get worse from here? I strongly believe he will get better. Why? Because I saw what he did last year after having a two-week span in which he was horrible -- he pulled himself together and pitched great for two months. And he's largely been great for the last month. One blown save after 12 consective saves would be just fine with me for the rest of the year. Just don't have any more streaks where everything goes completely awry for 4-6 games, like he had in mid-May this year and later July last year, and his year will look good when it's all over.

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That is really pretty close if you consider their roles. Hunter has pitched more than one inning 15 times this year including a three inning stint vs the Dodgers.

I don't like defined roles for relievers, but Buck does. It certainly doesn't help your argument to say Hunter should not have been used and Johnson should have based on innings pitched.

What I meant. For those that say Johnson is overworked, but Hunter should have got the call. BUT, Hunters has more innings pitched. Of course, he had his own blown save the other day, but that's another story.

I happen to like the Hunter to Johnson duo, and it works way more often than it doesn't.

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Buck really doesn't think outside the box and he likes to play the veterans...sticking by guys much too long (starting pitchers) or being overly confident (relievers, see Pedro Strop).

Never pitch Jim Johnson 3 days in a row, give the hot hand to the guy pitching. Tommy Hunter would have been perfect. I hate the save rule. And apparently Buck used to. He used to love the win rule. Not anymore. Maybe not ever? Just fluff?

I think the initial quote was him giving his new team a message. I understand they later made a MASN commercial about it.

Then of course the O's go out and sign Gregg to close.

Since OD 2011 Buck has adhered to the Save Rule.

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No one here is anti-Buck or anti-DD that I can tell in this thread. We are bringing up a situation where Buck could have reasonably not used Johnson for a third straight day. You then turn around and talk about saves and wins and call everyone else anti-Buck/DD.

I'm trying to be as nice as I can in this thread, but you probably need to do a little more reading and less posting until you can understand some of the concepts being discussed without resorting to 1982 statistics and generalizations.

Seriously, read more and post less? Why, because I dont agree with the masses?

I have read a ton today and I think alot of people are putting way too much into this.

Of course, thats just my opinion.

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The real question is what you expect from him the rest of the year -- will his ERA and save rate improve or get worse from here? I strongly believe he will get better. Why? Because I saw what he did last year after having a two-week span in which he was horrible -- he pulled himself together and pitched great for two months. And he's largely been great for the last month. One blown save after 12 consective saves would be just fine with me for the rest of the year. Just don't have any more streaks where everything goes completely awry for 4-6 games, like he had in mid-May this year and later July last year, and his year will look good when it's all over.

I think the numbers going forward will be better then they have been to date.

I also think Buck needs to pull back hard on relying solely on JJ in 9th inning save situations. I think Tony's numbers are enlightening and something Buck should pay attention to.

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What I meant. For those that say Johnson is overworked, but Hunter should have got the call. BUT, Hunters has more innings pitched. Of course, he had his own blown save the other day, but that's another story.

I happen to like the Hunter to Johnson duo, and it works way more often than it doesn't.

42 1/3 IP in 30 appearances for Tommy Hunter.

38 IP in 40 appearances for JJ

Hunter can go multiple innings per his role. He's part of the stud relief corp with O'Day. If we had a tier setup:

Tier 1: Hunter, O'Day

Tier 2: McFarland, Matusz, Patton, Johnson

Tier 3: Strop

Matusz and Patton are getting better. Matusz at 3.94 ERA and a 1.094 WHIP and PAtton at 3.93 ERA with a 1.485 WHIP. Matusz will most likely get back to Tier 1. We need Johnson to get there. Right now his WHIP is the highest it has been since 2010. His H/9 is the highest since 2010. And his BB/9 the highest since 2009. Now his SO/9 has gone up (highest since 2010).

It'll get better, but right now we have too many inconsistent relievers. Buck's job is to put guys in the best position to succeed. But by putting Strop in high leverage situations....what else can we expect but failure? Showing confidence in a struggling pitcher too much is a mark of a stubborn man. Buck should have given Johnson the day off yesterday, used Hunter, and then have Johnson available today as well as the weekend. How many relievers do well on 3 consecutive days?

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Seriously, read more and post less? Why, because I dont agree with the masses?

I have read a ton today and I think alot of people are putting way too much into this.

Of course, thats just my opinion.

No, because you can't quite grasp concepts that should be pretty easy to understand. You use stats like saves, wins, and innings pitched to make points when people are trying to show you they are meaningless to this current argument. No one said Johnson blew last night save because he has pitched 29 innings, we were showing that he becomes less effective on zero rest and even more ineffective when working in three days straight. You turn that around and say we are being anti-Buck or anti-DD, then say you can't understand how some of us would have preferred Hunter instead of Johnson last night because Hunter has worked more innings this season. I really don't know what to tell you if this is the kind of "logic" you use.

My suggestion is serious and I'm not trying to be condescending here, but the Hangout is not always a great place for people who can't grasp these kinds of concepts. If you truly think all you need to look at is his save and win totals and that's good enough reason that JJ should have closed last night after pitching the previous two nights, then I don't think you are going to add much to the board.

You don't need to be a sabermetric wiz to post here, but if you are going to mix it up with the regulars on here, and start calling them out, then you need to bring more to the table than save and win total for your support.

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Hey guys can anyone enlighten me why is it necessary to have just one closer? Would it not be better in general for our team to use "close" by committee and use the "Hot hand" at that time considering innings, frequency etc etc. This concept of just one guy who has to be your "closer" is not smart to me. Teams study and they see the tendencies the more a pitcher is used the more exposed he becomes thus they usually don't make two years back to back all star caliber years as a closer anyway. If the opposing team is not sure who will close out any game wouldn't there also be an element of surprise as well?

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