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Hardball Times 2014 Free Agent List


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Or Steve Pearce or whomever. The vs LHP half of the platoon. R. Davis has two advantages over Pearce and other AAAA options: (1) he can back up CF, which frees up a bench spot since he's also the de facto 4th OF and (2) he's good on the bases, so he's the primary PR. Not only could Pie not do either of those, his split was heavily weighted in the other direction.

Ok. Not Pie ;)

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Or Steve Pearce or whomever. The vs LHP half of the platoon. R. Davis has two advantages over Pearce and other AAAA options: (1) he can back up CF, which frees up a bench spot since he's also the de facto 4th OF and (2) he's good on the bases, so he's the primary PR. Not only could Pie not do either of those, his split was heavily weighted in the other direction.

I'd still rather pay up for one good outfielder.

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If you could pick, say, Choo or Garza for their respective market price, which would you pick?

What are the market years and money that you would suggest? Over the last three years they are the same in WAR. Though Choo is not really a centerfielder, so his WAR will be less going forward.

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If you could pick, say, Choo or Garza for their respective market price, which would you pick?

I'd prefer to trade, but if those two are the only two I can choose between, I'd rather have Choo. I think Gausman and Bundy will both be better than Garza, so I don't want to pay him.

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What are the market years and money that you would suggest? Over the last three years they are the same in WAR. Though Choo is not really a centerfielder, so his WAR will be less going forward.

For reference, FG has Choo putting up a 5.2 WAR last season vs Garza's 2.2. Also, Garza has health question marks while Choo mostly has a good track record. As clapdiddy noted, Garza will not cost a draft pick and Choo will. These projections DO take the loss of pick into account. Finally, Garza will be 30 in 2014 and Choo will be 31.

Per Fangraphs contract crowdsourcing (projected contract or fair contract):

Garza 4/$59M or 3/$39M ($14.8M or $13M AAV)

Choo 5/$81M or 4/$61M ($16.2M or $15.3M AAV)

Per MLBTR's FA profiles:

Garza 4/$64M ($16M AAV)

Choo 6/$100M ($16.7M AAV)

So the AAV for both players is $15-16M, but Choo is expected to need an additional year or two.

I'd prefer to trade, but if those two are the only two I can choose between, I'd rather have Choo. I think Gausman and Bundy will both be better than Garza, so I don't want to pay him.

This is the thinking I don't really agree with. You could be right, but even if so, the O's have hit the jackpot, and a 2015-2016 rotation that includes Garza, Gausman, Bundy, and Gonzalez (Chen's a FA after next season) would be amazing. In the meantime, the O's are a solid offensive and good defensive team but have below-average pitching. Why not spend money to improve the weakest part of the team?

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For reference, FG has Choo putting up a 5.2 WAR last season vs Garza's 2.2. Also, Garza has health question marks while Choo mostly has a good track record. As clapdiddy noted, Garza will not cost a draft pick and Choo will. These projections DO take the loss of pick into account. Finally, Garza will be 30 in 2014 and Choo will be 31.

Per Fangraphs contract crowdsourcing (projected contract or fair contract):

Garza 4/$59M or 3/$39M ($14.8M or $13M AAV)

Choo 5/$81M or 4/$61M ($16.2M or $15.3M AAV)

Per MLBTR's FA profiles:

Garza 4/$64M ($16M AAV)

Choo 6/$100M ($16.7M AAV)

So the AAV for both players is $15-16M, but Choo is expected to need an additional year or two.

This is the thinking I don't really agree with. You could be right, but even if so, the O's have hit the jackpot, and a 2015-2016 rotation that includes Garza, Gausman, Bundy, and Gonzalez (Chen's a FA after next season) would be amazing. In the meantime, the O's are a solid offensive and good defensive team but have below-average pitching. Why not spend money to improve the weakest part of the team?[/QUOTE]

Unless Urrutia pays off bigtime, the weakest part of the team projects to be the outfield.

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Unless Urrutia pays off bigtime, the weakest part of the team projects to be the outfield.

How is that? Orioles outfielders put up 6.3 WAR last season, 10th in the AL. If they resign McLouth, they've got to project to be a bit better than that, since Markakis is likely to rebound to provide >0 value and a LF platoon partner who isn't injured should add a little. I'd project a Markakis/Jones/McLouth/4th OF group for about 7-7.5 WAR and #8 in the AL.

Meanwhile, the starting pitchers put up 7.4 WAR, which is #12 in the AL, and I don't see how they project to be any better, unless you're expecting a monster year from Gausman as a rookie. Maybe you get some value from a more-healthy Chen? Or a full season of Norris instead of a full season of Hammel?

Per Steamer (Fangraphs' prediction system), Tillman-Chen-Gonzalez-Norris projects to 6.8 WAR next season. With a replacement level #5 starter, that WAR total would have ranked #14 in the AL this past season. Adding Feldman is an additional projected 1.9 WAR, total 8.7 WAR, which would have ranked #11 (tied with Angels). An outfield of McLouth-Jones-Markakis, with no platoon, projects for 6.9 WAR, which would leave them at #10. If you add a platoon partner and squeeze out 1 more win (Pearce was worth 0.8 WAR in 2013 even with all the injuries, but you have to subtract a bit from McLouth's total), 7.9 WAR would have ranked #8.

Obviously I'm assuming the O's resign McLouth. So maybe the question I should have posed is Garza+McLouth vs Choo? But regardless, I also think it's a little silly to split out the outfield from the offense as a whole. The Orioles had a good set of position players last season, offensively and defensively, and a mediocre set of starting pitchers.

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I'd still rather pay up for one good outfielder.
Well that's the problem, the one good LF option, say Choo, Elsbury, Beltran, or Granderson, will cost more than they are worth and we can afford, plus a pick which we can't afford to give up with our thin MiL system. We have to be looking at guys like Murphy, Davis, Byrd, McLouth, because they are cheap, give us depth, and can be almost as productive in combination. I am thinking they will go with a Valencia/Urrutia DH, and spend on another SP.
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Well that's the problem, the one good LF option, say Choo, Elsbury, Beltran, or Granderson, will cost more than they are worth and we can afford, plus a pick which we can't afford to give up with our thin MiL system. We have to be looking at guys like Murphy, Davis, Byrd, McLouth, because they are cheap, give us depth, and can be almost as productive in combination. I am thinking they will go with a Valencia/Urrutia DH, and spend on another SP.

And as I've said several times, I'd rather trade or that player, whomever it might be.

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How is that? Orioles outfielders put up 6.3 WAR last season, 10th in the AL. If they resign McLouth, they've got to project to be a bit better than that, since Markakis is likely to rebound to provide >0 value and a LF platoon partner who isn't injured should add a little. I'd project a Markakis/Jones/McLouth/4th OF group for about 7-7.5 WAR and #8 in the AL.

Meanwhile, the starting pitchers put up 7.4 WAR, which is #12 in the AL, and I don't see how they project to be any better, unless you're expecting a monster year from Gausman as a rookie. Maybe you get some value from a more-healthy Chen? Or a full season of Norris instead of a full season of Hammel?

Per Steamer (Fangraphs' prediction system), Tillman-Chen-Gonzalez-Norris projects to 6.8 WAR next season. With a replacement level #5 starter, that WAR total would have ranked #14 in the AL this past season. Adding Feldman is an additional projected 1.9 WAR, total 8.7 WAR, which would have ranked #11 (tied with Angels). An outfield of McLouth-Jones-Markakis, with no platoon, projects for 6.9 WAR, which would leave them at #10. If you add a platoon partner and squeeze out 1 more win (Pearce was worth 0.8 WAR in 2013 even with all the injuries, but you have to subtract a bit from McLouth's total), 7.9 WAR would have ranked #8.

Obviously I'm assuming the O's resign McLouth. So maybe the question I should have posed is Garza+McLouth vs Choo? But regardless, I also think it's a little silly to split out the outfield from the offense as a whole. The Orioles had a good set of position players last season, offensively and defensively, and a mediocre set of starting pitchers.

Sorry, I can't keep up with you. I respond to something you say about a few years from now and your reply to that is about next year. Here's the short version for you:

2015-16 rotation based on players and prospcets in the system:

Tillman

Gausman

Bundy

Rodriguez

Gonzalez

2015-16 outfield based on players and prospects currently in the system:

Jones

?

?

Based on who is there now, I'd rather have Shoo than Garza. But as I said when you first asked the question, I'd rather trade for an outfielder than sign a free agent. Who? I don't know.

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