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If Hardy is traded, is Matusz and Flaherty enough to get Headley from SD?


Tony-OH

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Matusz and Flaherty are inarguably more valuable than the 30th pick in the draft. Noah Lowry is the best 30th pick in the last 25 years and Jack Cust is the second best.

That's a silly argument. Chase Headley was the 66th pick in the 2005 draft. I could name dozens if not hundreds of quality players picked in the 2nd round or later.

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I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox offered Middlebrooks for Headley, maybe more than just Middlebrooks. For the O's to top that they'd have to offer more/better young controllable players.

Why would the Padres take Matusz and/or Flaherty when they could do better than that by letting Headley walk and take a supplemental pick instead? If Headley has a poor 2014, then yeah, the O's could maybe get him for Matusz/Flaherty at the deadline.

The point is any number of teams can top an offer of Matusz and Flaherty for Chase Headley -- even if he only has a year left under contract.

Why is Middlebrooks such a prize? He hit .227/.271/.425/.696 with a 20/98 BB/K ratio in 374 PAs? He's a guy with a career .788 minor league OPS and a poor contact rate. Even in his rookie year Middlebrooks hit .240/.276/.416/.692 over his last 134 PAs.

Flaherty had a career .809 OPS in the minors and hit .275 /.339/.485/.824 over his last 183 PAs last year. Flaherty is only a little more than two years older than Middlebrooks. Flaherty is a better defender than Middlebrooks, who is below average at 3B, and certainly way more versatile.

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That's a silly argument. Chase Headley was the 66th pick in the 2005 draft. I could name dozens if not hundreds of quality players picked in the 2nd round or later.

Great, my point still stands. Matusz and Flaherty have more value than a 2 in 30 chance of Noah Lowry or Jack Cust. Sure there are great players picked in the second round or later but it is still a crap shoot and a legit Major League player has more value than any single draft pick beyond #20 or so.

Of the 32 picks in the 2nd round of the 2005 MLB draft, 12 have made the majors, 6 have a WAR greater than 1.1 and 2 have made All-star teams (Headley and Travis Wood). Draft picks are long shots.

To suggest that Flaherty and Matusz are less valuable than a comp pick is to argue that one in the bush is more valuable than two in the hand. Certainly there is a chance that the comp pick brings more value but it is less than 10 percent.

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Why is Middlebrooks such a prize? He hit .227/.271/.425/.696 with a 20/98 BB/K ratio in 374 PAs? He's a guy with a career .788 minor league OPS and a poor contact rate. Even in his rookie year Middlebrooks hit .240/.276/.416/.692 over his last 134 PAs.

Flaherty had a career .809 OPS in the minors and hit .275 /.339/.485/.824 over his last 183 PAs last year. Flaherty is only a little more than two years older than Middlebrooks. Flaherty is a better defender than Middlebrooks, who is below average at 3B, and certainly way more versatile.

Well, Middlebrooks is just one idea. But to stick with why Middlebrooks is more appealing than Flaherty, one reason is because he had a .835 OPS his first year in the majors. Flaherty has never done anything close to that. You make good points all, but the point is that now at age 26, Flaherty is perceived as a backup utility player -- not even really a super utility player even though he can play just about any position. Flaherty could still surprise and start swinging the bat like a starter, but it would be a big surprise if he did.

Again, Middlebrooks is just one idea. The Red Sox could offer any number of young players in exchange for Headley. But also Middlebrooks is a third baseman and would directly fill in for the loss of Headley. Flaherty is seen more as a second baseman, and the Padres already have Jedd Gyorko at that position.

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That's a silly argument. Chase Headley was the 66th pick in the 2005 draft. I could name dozens if not hundreds of quality players picked in the 2nd round or later.

His argument isn't silly at all. The odds of that pick ending up being as valuable as Matusz and Flaherty are extremely remote.

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Great, my point still stands. Matusz and Flaherty have more value than a 2 in 30 chance of Noah Lowry or Jack Cust. Sure there are great players picked in the second round or later but it is still a crap shoot and a legit Major League player has more value than any single draft pick beyond #20 or so.

Of the 32 picks in the 2nd round of the 2005 MLB draft, 12 have made the majors, 6 have a WAR greater than 1.1 and 2 have made All-star teams (Headley and Travis Wood). Draft picks are long shots.

To suggest that Flaherty and Matusz are less valuable than a comp pick is to argue that one in the bush is more valuable than two in the hand. Certainly there is a chance that the comp pick brings more value but it is less than 10 percent.

Seriously, why gamble with a supplemental pick when you could have Brian Matusz and Ryan Flaherty? :rolleyestf: No risk, no reward, and from what they have shown, what kind of reward are Matusz and Flaherty? Even with the off year, why trade someone like Headley for Matusz and Flaherty when both players are perceived by most to continue performing probably at the level they've already shown?

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Seriously, why gamble with a supplemental pick when you could have Brian Matusz and Ryan Flaherty? :rolleyestf: No risk, no reward, and from what they have shown, what kind of reward are Matusz and Flaherty? Even with the off year, why trade someone like Headley for Matusz and Flaherty when both players are perceived by most to continue performing probably at the level they've already shown?

If that is the best deal that San Diego can get, then they should make the deal. I agree with you that Headley is more valuable than Matusz and Flaherty and the Orioles would have to offer more to acquire him but that isn't the point that I was making. San Diego is unlikely to compete this year and they should try to trade Headley now so that they can get more than just a comp pick out of him. Headley has more value now than he will once the season starts because once the season starts, whatever team trades for Headley won't be able to get a compensatory pick if they are unable to resign him.

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His argument isn't silly at all. The odds of that pick ending up being as valuable as Matusz and Flaherty are extremely remote.

Flaherty and Matusz have a combined 7 Major League seasons under their belt for a combined WAR of 3.1 (according to baseball-reference.com). Headley alone had a WAR of 3.4 just last season -- which was considered an off year for him.

How is it "extremely remote" that a supplemental pick could not do better than a WAR of 3.1 over 7 Major League seasons? Sure, most supplemental players will never reach the majors, but in 2007, the year Ryan Flaherty was chosen as a supplemental pick, Lance Lynn, Wade Miley, Logan Forsythe and Jake Ordorizzi were also chosen as supplemental picks. Those are just supplemental picks from one year, and a few others from that year are still considered prospects.

And even if the Padres would rather trade than take a supplemental pick, why take two players who have 7 seasons under their belts for a combined WAR of 3.1 for a player that gave you 3.4 WAR in 2013 and a 6.2 WAR the year before? But if you can get the Padres to make that trade, I tip my hat to you.

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I don't think Flaherty is a true .800 OPS hitter, but I do think he could be a solid .750-.780 guy if given every day AB with occasional day offs against tough lefties.

Unfortunately, he didn't get a chance to do that for much of last season, and I think until/unless he does, his trade value is low. Hopefully, he proves you right in Baltimore next season.

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Flaherty and Matusz have a combined 7 Major League seasons under their belt for a combined WAR of 3.1 (according to baseball-reference.com). Headley alone had a WAR of 3.4 just last season -- which was considered an off year for him.

How is it "extremely remote" that a supplemental pick could not do better than a WAR of 3.1 over 7 Major League seasons? Sure, most supplemental players will never reach the majors, but in 2007, the year Ryan Flaherty was chosen as a supplemental pick, Lance Lynn, Wade Miley, Logan Forsythe and Jake Ordorizzi were also chosen as supplemental picks. Those are just supplemental picks from one year, and a few others from that year are still considered prospects.

And even if the Padres would rather trade than take a supplemental pick, why take two players who have 7 seasons under their belts for a combined WAR of 3.1 for a player that gave you 3.4 WAR in 2013 and a 6.2 WAR the year before? But if you can get the Padres to make that trade, I tip my hat to you.

We are talking about the odds of one (1) pick. San Diego will not get the entire round, much less the entire round of one particular cherry-picked year. The odds of the one (1) singular pick that they would get ending up having a better career than the careers of 2 young players that have already made it to the majors combined is, again, extremely remote. Murph has already given you the results of the 30th pick, and they speak for themselves. He was even giving you Cust, who was not worth Flaherty plus Matusz. If that isn't clear to you, then I don't know what to tell you.

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Number one, this is a huge point, not just a small matter. Add in the pay difference and the fact that top shortstops are worth more than top 3B, and it's not as comparable. Even if you want to say Hardy and Headley are even, if the Orioles were staring down another sub .500 season and I didn't think I had much of a chance to resign Hardy, I might be willing to take a former #4 overall selection who may be a great fit my ball park and potential .770ish OPS replacement at 3B.

By the way, who is suggesting Hardy for Shelby Miller straight up is a good deal for the Cardinals? I know I never did.

I just typed a big response to this and accidentally deleted it :(

Anyway I don't see why top SS are theoretically worth more than top 3B. Both Hardy and Headley are 3-4 win players, and WAR is designed to capture that effect. In fact, 3-4 win SS are actually much easier to find this offseason than 3-4 win 3B.

It's true the Padres may be more willing than the Orioles to trade Headley, but that doesn't mean they have to accept far less for him. They'll have plenty of interested teams, just like the Orioles would for Hardy. I think that given the landscape of the FA market, Headley might be even more desirable compared to the alternatives.

As for the Shelby Miller point, there have been some pretty crazy points made by people in various threads that they should be willing to part with him, or something close to him in value, for Hardy. I wasn't saying you were, just commenting that the variation among people in general on the perception of these players' respective trade values is pretty extreme.

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I just typed a big response to this and accidentally deleted it :(

Anyway I don't see why top SS are theoretically worth more than top 3B. Both Hardy and Headley are 3-4 win players, and WAR is designed to capture that effect. In fact, 3-4 win SS are actually much easier to find this offseason than 3-4 win 3B.

It's true the Padres may be more willing than the Orioles to trade Headley, but that doesn't mean they have to accept far less for him. They'll have plenty of interested teams, just like the Orioles would for Hardy. I think that given the landscape of the FA market, Headley might be even more desirable compared to the alternatives.

As for the Shelby Miller point, there have been some pretty crazy points made by people in various threads that they should be willing to part with him, or something close to him in value, for Hardy. I wasn't saying you were, just commenting that the variation among people in general on the perception of these players' respective trade values is pretty extreme.

The bolded sentence doesn't make sense to me. If one party is more willing to sell something than another party, he is by definition prepared to accept less for him. That is the very meaning of being more willing to sell.

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The bolded sentence doesn't make sense to me. If one party is more willing to sell something than another party, he is by definition prepared to accept less for him. That is the very meaning of being more willing to sell.

It means that the Padres are more willing to accept the best available offer once they find out what it is. They call up 5 teams and say we're shopping Headley, give me your best offer, and we'll take the best one. Maybe they get two teams bidding against each other. They will still have plenty of leverage. They lose some leverage because teams know they are likely to trade him rather than hold him, but that is not going to offset the fact that Headley will be in high demand.

The Padres aren't going to sell Headley without finding out what the best offer is, and the best offer in Headley's case will be comparable to the best offer in Hardy's case. The Orioles are just more likely than the Padres to turn that offer down once they find out what it is.

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I can't imagine a scenario where Flaherty and Matusz get Headley this offseason. I think it would take a better headliner from Baltimore.

That being said, I do think Headley's a worthy target. Good defense and OBP. Likely .800 OPS guy in Baltimore. Allows us to trade Hardy while his value is at its peak. This would be good GMing, assuming the cost makes any sense at all.

I think it would take Schoop instead of Flaherty.

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San Diego (Spanish for a Whale's Vagina) may ask for a Eduardo Rodriguez, but no way is he going for a one-year rental of Headley. Now maybe, just maybe you consider adding Mike Wright, but I would need some kind of B- level (Think Hoes-type) outfield prospect back if he were added to the deal.

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/jdh4dXfhvls" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

If you trade for Headley, you also have to consider a qualifying offer. That is over 25 million for two years. He would have to be good. He better not be like the first half of last season.

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