MacPhail's negotiations - confusing results

[Fairfax Bird]

So, you'd be happy with a player at high A ball and a player who didn't perform well in his first extended time in the majors plus a B-/C+ prospect for Bedard? I wouldn't. And heck, Cabrera probably has a bit more value than Bedard.

Don't get me wrong. Miller will be a good pitcher. He may turn into a great pitcher. Maybin is all projection at this point IMO. I would want more than that for the best hitter under 26 in the major leagues. That is all I'm saying. They got value for him and it may turn out well, but that trade is very risky IMO. If Miller turns into a perennial All Star and Maybin doesn't make it, they lose that trade IMO because Cabrera was so good.

Tejada isn't that good. The return wasn't as good for him, but I think it is much easier to justify the value gotten for Tejada than the value gotten for Miguel Cabrera.

No one likes to disagree more with SG than me. That said, Maybin has been rated higher than Jones. Miller has been rated higher than Morrow. They could throw me in as the third player and it is still a better deal than anything the Mariners are throwing our way. This argument is going nowhere. Look in BA's top 100 and you will see that you are flat out wrong about those two. BTW, Miller's first exposure was about the same as Loewen the year before and I don't think anyone is poo-pooing him.

[Sports Guy]

That isn't the point and you should stop arguing like a jerk IMO. The repeated eye rolls and dismissive statements just aren't very cool. Debate with supporting info or stop debating.

The point of what we're saying, and you know is, is that Maybin is in A ball and he isn't putting up numbers that are particularly impressive. He is a bit young for his levels, but he isn't crazy young for them.

No offense but this is foolish...If Billy Rowell was putting up those same numbers and people were saying they weren't impressive, you would be all over them.

An 879 OPS at age 20 is pretty damn impressive.

[Sports Guy]

He is a corner outfielder so an 884 OPS isn't as exciting as it would be if he were a CF, SS, 2B, or C. His age was a bit young for his levels (low A at 19, high A at 20), but not crazy young. He is a very good prospect, but he is still a long way away. I wouldn't be happy with him as the centerpiece in a trade for a hitter as good as Miguel Cabrera. I stand by that statement.

Maybin is a CFer.

And I don't care what position he is playing, an 884 MiL OPS at his age is impressive.

[Sports Guy]

You're blowing my statements out of proportion. Not that I'm particularly shocked about that. He is a very good prospect, but again I don't think an A ball prospect should be the centerpiece for a trade for Miguel Cabrera. He is too far away. Bruce is a guy that had stats to make a centerpiece for Cabrera. He produced better numbers at two higher levels at the same age as Maybin.

So, are you happy with Triunfel as the centerpiece for Bedard? Or Adenhart last year? How would that have worked out?

Neither of those guys are at Maybin's level and Maybin got ML time last year.

He isn't that far away.

I would be ecstatic to get Maybin as a centerpiece...Probably one of the top 3 prospects in the sport.

[Sports Guy]

I had read that he was going to be a LF in the majors. If he will be a CF, he is a much better prospect. If I'm wrong about that, I will retract some of what I've written.

Impressive, yes, but not phenomenal. Jay Bruce is phenomenal. Colby Rasmus is phenomenal. Same ages, better stats at the same age. Maybin is very, very good, but not in the same class.

Maybin is a CFer but his arm is very strong, so a team may want him on the corner becuase of it but his defense and instincts in the OF are very good.

Jay Bruce is the one who is going to be moved to a corner OF spot.

BTW, you want Adam Jones...Maybin is a definitely a better prospect than Jones is.

I would tried to eek out a third player, like De La Cruz, but if we had a Maybin and Miller deal on the table for Bedard right now, I have yet to see one offer that would beat those 2.

[Sports Guy]

That simply isn't supported by his statistics. Jay Bruce and Colby Rasmus are both better prospects at his positions at the same age. There is no way Maybin is one of the top 3 prospects in the sport. He was rated an A- by Sickels for 2008 which doesn't place him nearly that high. Add to that the fact that he has never played above high A ball (other than 50 ABs in Sept with Detroit when he was horribly overmatched, sub 500 OPS which is hard to do) and he shouldn't be the centerpiece for anybody as valuable as Bedard or M. Cabrera.

Well, Maybin was #6 heading into last year...Several of the top 6 wouldn't be eligible now.

And Maybin was better this past year than he was the year before that.

And btw, i think you may be the only person on this board, or the planet for that matter, that doesn't think Maybin should be a centerpiece in a trade for a top player.

[Sports Guy]

You disagree that Rasmus and Bruce are better prospects?

Bruce..Yes...Rasmus, not sure...You can put Longoria, Maybin and Rasmus's names in a hat and pull them out and be fine..I would put Rasmus slightly ahead of Maybin but put Maybin ahead of Longoria.

You disagree with Sickels who ranked 8 players as A and 9 players at A- (including Adam Jones and Maybin)?

Yes, I disagree.

Do you disagree that Jones should be valued higher than Maybin because he has performed at higher levels and is more major league ready?

I would want Maybin more than Jones...We are talking 1 season or less difference in terms of when Maybin is ready compared to Jones..Not a big deal.

[Frobby]

That simply isn't supported by his statistics. Jay Bruce and Colby Rasmus are both better prospects at his positions at the same age. There is no way Maybin is one of the top 3 prospects in the sport. He was rated an A- by Sickels for 2008 which doesn't place him nearly that high. Add to that the fact that he has never played above high A ball (other than 50 ABs in Sept with Detroit when he was horribly overmatched, sub 500 OPS which is hard to do) and he shouldn't be the centerpiece for anybody as valuable as Bedard or M. Cabrera.

There is a big difference between Bedard and M. Cabrera. Cabrera is almost young enough to be a prospect himself (turns 25 in April), and he's been one of the best hitters in the sport for 4 years. Basically, he's Manny Ramirez 10 years ago. Bedard is a guy recently established as an ace, who has a much bigger risk of flaming out after a 3-4 year peak.

Therefore, you can take a little more risk with Bedard than you can with Cabrera.

[Fairfax Bird]

That simply isn't supported by his statistics. Jay Bruce and Colby Rasmus are both better prospects at his positions at the same age. There is no way Maybin is one of the top 3 prospects in the sport. He was rated an A- by Sickels for 2008 which doesn't place him nearly that high. Add to that the fact that he has never played above high A ball (other than 50 ABs in Sept with Detroit when he was horribly overmatched, sub 500 OPS which is hard to do) and he shouldn't be the centerpiece for anybody as valuable as Bedard or M. Cabrera.

Maybin at age 20 in the FSL -- 296 abs .304/.393/.486/.879 with 10 HR, 25 SB, and 43 BB

Bruce at age 20 in the FSL -- 268 abs .325/.379/.556/.965 with 11 HR, 4 SB, and 24 BB

Now, Bruce is the better prospect. However, Bruce will probably move off of CF well before Maybin. Maybin is not as reliant on getting hits to get on base (Bruce's is walk rate is just average) and this was done in the SAME league at the same year. Bruce has the upper hand because of his power, but they are young and Maybin could develop. The CF prospects break down as Bruce, Rasmus, Maybin and everyone else. Maybin was a good centerpiece to the Cabrera deal. Especially when Miller is added in.

[Trinidad]

Scott is now in his third organization.

He played at the A+ level for parts of 3 seasons, AA for parts of 2 seasons and AAA for parts of 2 seasons.

He didn't get to the majors until he was 27/28 years old....The journeyman label may not be 100% accurate but its pretty close.

QUOTE]

That makes it sound worse then it is. He reached the majors at age 27, true. But you neglect to mention that he was drafted at the age of 24. Parts of A+ for 3 seasons, AA for parts of two season, and AAA for parts of two, while all true, he actually only played 3 and a half minor league season before reachiing the major leagues. If he was drafted at 21 or 22 like a normal college kid, he would have reached the majors at 25 and became a regular at 26, not uncommon or strange at all.

[Sports Guy]

I disagree. Jones was in AA at 19, AAA at 20. He produced a tremendous year this year in AAA at 21. I would value Jones slightly higher simply because their numbers are comparable and Jones has done it at higher levels and with better defense (from what I've read). Maybin probably does have higher upside but he has much higher volatility.

Maybin's better plate discipline alone makes this a false statement IMO.

[Fairfax Bird]

First of all, you're acting like I'm saying these guys are terrible. I'm not. They are both very good prospects. But we're talking about Miguel Freaking Cabrera. I would want more than these two guys as my centerpiece for a stud like Cabrera. It isn't a terrible return. I have never written that it is. I just don't think it was nearly top value for Cabrera. They sold quickly and got projectability. Nothing wrong with that, but I would have wanted either more value or less projectability.

Second, what does looking at BA's top 100 tell me? It tells me that a player in high A ball and a player with almost no ML at all are projected to be studs. right? Do you want me to point out all the players in A ball who are projected to be studs and turn into nada?

I guess I read into your statement that Scott was somehow a comparable pick-up to Maybin. That is what set me down that path. I would much, much rather have Maybin and Miller than all five guys we picked up from the Marlins.

Secondly, it seems that you are down on Maybin compared to Rasmus and Bruce. Yes, I think Maybin comes in third in that race, but it is pretty darn close. Maybin has incredible patience at the plate, great speed and a projectionable body to hit for power. He is going to be a great one and I thought some of your posts about a mid 850s OPS at the A level were garbage.

[Fairfax Bird]

BTW, Rowell will be 19 at high A ball next year so he'll get a chance to put up an 879 OPS. If he does, I'll be ecstatic and I'll say he deserves to be a top 25 prospect. I'll also say there is no way he should be the centerpiece of a trade for a guy like Cabrera or Bedard.

Really? If he hits for great power and has an .879 OPS at high A as a 19 year old you don't think he could be the centerpiece of a 3-4 player deal for Bedard? I do. Cabrera, eh, maybe not, but Maybin plays CF and might be their CF on the ML level on opening day.

[Sports Guy]

VaTech, you are are also not factoring salary and closeness to FA here either.

I doubt you would have found a team that would have beaten the 2 some of Maybin and Miller.

The only team that could have MAYBE done that was the Dodgers and that would be if they put Kemp on the table, along with Kershaw and even then, it may be close.

[Sports Guy]

So, you think he is ready despite being completely overmatched in his September call up? His OPS was horrendous. Granted it was a small sample size, but he hardly looks ready. I think he is at least a year away from the majors and perhaps two from putting up a good OPS at the ML level.

Just answered your own question.

Markakis had a 558 OPS in the month of April in his first season...That was in 62 ab's.

He was older and had more AA experience...He ended up ok.