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Os have considered extending JJ Hardy.

Greg

By Greg
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crawjo Major Leaguer Rising Star

crawjo

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Very astute post, Crawjo. And I think it makes a lot of sense. Picking the right players to resign, however, requires you to have great players in the first place - or at least players worth resigning. Why be rigid about your approach, though? Fact is, we can afford to add players who will make this good team better. And we're really close to competing for the division, but we absolutely will not do it this year without additional talent - especially when the Yankees and Sox continue to pile up talent. They just throw high-priced bodies at us and there's little we can do to dig out, at some point.

To me, not resigning Nate was a mistake. That's a "right" guy in my view. (And no, young enough to grow with Adam doesn't necessarily mean under 30 - ideally, yes, but Nate could play for a few more years.) Not resigning Feldman was probably a mistake. Yes, ideally you'd sign guys like Choo, who's 31 and could play here for the next 5 years. But also, I would look at pitchers. Two guys who belong on this team right now are Matt Garza and Ricky Nolasco, IMO. Yes, both come with risks, but both would be great additions to our rotation. And don't tell me we couldn't have afforded Nolasco.

I'm fine letting McLouth go, and think Garza is fool's gold. I'd be more interested in Jimenez than Garza. But honestly I don't think this kind of tinkering (and that's all it is) wins us the division next year, and that has to be the goal at this point.

If it were me, I would be most focused on keeping the team competitive while banking money to lock up Machado long term. I don't know the budgetary particulars, but let's say for argument's sake that we could lock up Machado to a 10-year contract in 2015. If not signing a Ricky Nolasco or somebody like that saves us the money we need to keep Machado in Baltimore, then that's what I'm doing. I see Machado as an irreplaceable part of the core for the next decade, something that cannot be said about any other player on the roster at this point.

IMO, people getting worked up about the Orioles not making any signings are being short-sighted. The vast majority of these contracts are going to look bad in a year or two, if not sooner. Again, the name of the game for me is acquiring and holding onto players who still have significant prime years ahead of them. The way the game has been played recently, that excludes everyone born in 1983 or before.

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crawjo Major Leaguer Rising Star

crawjo

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Yes, his last contract was a steal. Be happy with that. No need to do the opposite now and even things out. Hardy has been healthy and productive for 3 years now. I don't like pressing our luck and hoping for 4 more at market or close to market rates. Duquette wasn't sentimental with Jim Johnson. I hope he isn't with Hardy either. If he has a another good year, make the qualifying offer and take the pick. Let someone else risk 12-14M a year on his age 32-34,35 seasons. The Orioles should/could have an infield of Flaherty/Machado/Schoop to start 2015. Young and cheap. Hardy's money to be spent in other areas.

This is the kind of thought process we need. A team with our payroll should have an allergic reaction to most players on the wrong side of 30. (Most, not all). Let other teams chase after the aging veterans whose best years are almost always in the past. Focus on finding guys still on the upswing of the productivity curve. All the great trades that MacPhail made were in this category. He got Chris Davis when he was 25 and J.J. Hardy when he was 28. When you start talking about extending guys who are north of 30, in all likelihood you are talking about a diminishing return on an increasingly expensive investment.

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25 Nuggets Hangout Grand Counsel

25 Nuggets

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I believe Tillman, Gausman, and Chen could make any rotation in the AL East (maybe not 2014 but for sure '15 on Gausman). We need to get the other pieces.

Yup. Right now the Orioles squarely have the 3rd best rotation in the AL East IMO. And that's with Gonzalez and Norris rounding it out.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Now, here's a hypothetical for you. Manny Machado comes back 100% and puts up as good or better season than last year. Ryan Flaherty OPS's .700+ with low average and plus power and plays the same kind of defense he played last year, and Jonathan Schoop puts up an .800+ OPS up in AAA. That's a positive hypothetical but I don't think it's farfetched either. Now, at the end of 2014, you have a 32 year old SS, HOPEFULLY, coming off a good, productive, injury free season. Do you trade Schoop or Flaherty, young cost controlled infielders?

That would be a nice problem to have. If confronted with that, I'd probably keep everyone and look to trade Hardy in mid-2015 if all was going according to plan.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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I'm not saying you're wrong, just that I'd go the other way. The infield is a place where we can save money. Assuming that Hardy can even be signed for the 12.5M per year, you suggest, that's 12M more than we need to spend. You're also banking on Hardy not only being good and healthy this year but for half a year in 2015 as well. Maybe it's not a big risk, but there is some risk there. The risk in my plan is in both Flaherty and Schoop being capable of being starting ML players ( we should have a pretty good read on that by the end of this year). Again, some risk there as well, but we've got 12M more to play with too.

Your scenario is a reason not to discuss an extension with Hardy until after we see how 2014 goes. Of course, if we wait until then it decreases the chances that Hsrdy would extend at a below market price. So, it's not an easy choice. I wish I had a better handle on what Schoop and Flaherty will turn out to be.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I think Hardy would sign a 3 year 32 million deal. And would be more than worth it. I would never make this type of decision bases on young players. If there ends up to be a redundant situation, it can be addressed at that point. And should be.

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MrOrange82 Hangout Grand Counsel

MrOrange82

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The risk in my plan is in both Flaherty and Schoop being capable of being starting ML players ( we should have a pretty good read on that by the end of this year). Again, some risk there as well, but we've got 12M more to play with too.

Some risk? Some? The odds aren't even great that one of those two will prove themselves "capable of being ML players," let alone both.

For the life of me, I'll never understand why getting one "prospect" in the system whose name is repeated often enough to be remembered can provoke some people into banking on that player's future performance in the major leagues. The O's have churned out far, far more duds than Machados over the years.

And I asked earlier, but no one felt like answering: have we already forgotten what a giant pain in the neck it was to find even a half-decent third basemen before Manny came along? And now, some people are willing to bank on the O's MiL system to provide such a player after shuttling off a "proven" ML shortstop and moving what could be an all-world third basemen to short?

No, at the end of the day I wouldn't want to give Hardy $14-16 million per year over three or four years, but $12? Absolutely. He's never going to be a good OBP player, but I'm willing to bet that his defense will retain much of its value over the next several years. And even if he starts to slide towards offensive ineptitude, at least he'll be sliding down from something...which is more than most Oriole prospects have been able to say over the last couple of decades.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Okay. Of course, J.J. probably has a limited or full no trade clause for awhile in the new contract. You also assume that we will have a trade partner. Probably better than 50/50 that we would.

I would not think he would have much of a trade clause. If he did, I am sure it would be limited. And if weren't add a extra million to the AAV to get it written out of the contract.

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