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Per Rosenthal: Balfour (FINALLY) to Orioles...


xian4

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Fangraphs thinks it's a fair deal:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/grant-balfour-free-agent-closer-at-a-fair-price/

Not this year, though. After years of paying for saves and reputations, the market seems to be correcting itself, even with runaway revenues leading teams to inflate spending on other types of players. Balfour actually got less guaranteed money from the Orioles in this deal than the Rockies just gave to a lefty specialist in Boone Logan, though it is for one less year, so the AAV is still slightly higher. Even still, Balfour just signed the same contract that Juan Uribe got from the Dodgers yesterday as a defense-first third baseman. He got a little more than Justin Morneau got as an underpowered first baseman. He got a little less than Phil Hughes, a back-end starter trying to revive his career.
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Well, we keep reading reports how the O's are surprised at the Roberts signing, disappointed about the Colon signing. It doesn't seem like they're reading the market real well so far.

Could be Colon didn't want to pitch at Camden Yards. Choosing a pitchers park over a hitters park might be why he isn't playing for the Orioles. I think Buck is the only one who cares about Roberts. DD was never going to re-sign him. Why waste 2 marbles?

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Well, we keep reading reports how the O's are surprised at the Roberts signing, disappointed about the Colon signing. It doesn't seem like they're reading the market real well so far.

We assumed that Colon would rather play for a better team. We never tried to sign Brian. He was going to be an afterthought. We can read what we want, but I don't believe it. I think we read the market fine. We just dislike most prices.

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Could be Colon didn't want to pitch at Camden Yards. Choosing a pitchers park over a hitters park might be why he isn't playing for the Orioles. I think Buck is the only one who cares about Roberts. DD was never going to re-sign him. Why waste 2 marbles?

Or maybe he just really wanted to swing the bat.

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Let's not forget though that Axford didn't close any games last year.

Yeah, and I realize that's why he got less money, but we were rumored to be involved with Axford. Perhaps we could have added him with a similar contract? In any case, we got the better, more established closer coming off the superior season and appropriately paid more money for it.

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Not really a nit pick, but have you checked out his splits? He may have looked better than Johnson on the whole, but he isn't pitching at Oakland's Alameda Coliseum any longer.

Yeah, now he is pitching in Camden Yards + Yankee Stadium + Fenway

Not for spending more money on a closer than 4/5 of the rotation combined. Signing Garza and Choo would have made a difference, signing a closer was a lateral move and Balfour has pitched poorly away from the coliseum.

Year ERA/WHIP

2012 Home 1.06/.685 Away 4.45/1.23

2013 Home 1.98/1.03 Away 3.42/1.42

Balfour was a waste of marbles

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According to Heyman it's in addition to the $7m.

I'm still wondering why the Orioles had to defer the $500K in the first place, unless it was Balfour's agent who came up with that. That doesn't make me optimistic about other signings.

It is almost as if we just said, "OK, you want 2/$14 with a $7 million option for a 3rd year with a $1 million buy out? You got it... and we will decline the option here and now, so we will pay you $1 million then."

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Yeah, now he is pitching in Camden Yards + Yankee Stadium + Fenway

Not for spending more money on a closer than 4/5 of the rotation combined. Signing Garza and Choo would have made a difference, signing a closer was a lateral move and Balfour has pitched poorly away from the coliseum.

Year ERA/WHIP

2012 Home 1.06/.685 Away 4.45/1.23

2013 Home 1.98/1.03 Away 3.42/1.42

Balfour was a waste of marbles

2013 ERA+

Jim Johnson 143 ERA+

Grant Balfour 145 ERA+

Probably a lateral move as far as overall performance, since those numbers are neutralized for park and league.

However, JJ had 40 Shutdowns in 2013 against 12 Meltdowns. Balfour had 33 SD and only 5 MD. Balfour's much higher K-rate probably helps him here, as he doesn't need to rely on his defense to bail him out.

If you think this is a waste of marbles, then surely paying JJ $10.8M would have been an even bigger waste?

There's no point in hoping the Orioles will sign Choo or Garza. Choo will get over $100m and Garza's injury history is keeping the O's away.

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