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Tanaka To Be Posted


DrinkinWithFermi

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"Everyone is acting like it's a no-brainer all-in just because he's 25. He's still a pitcher and he's still got serious miles on him. Very attractive player nonetheless but a real risk"

Executive for an MLB team.

How'd he get to be FA from Japan already? Doesn't it take them like 9 years? Was he signed at 16?

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It's truly sad that owner Peter Angelos and the Orioles, even with the MASN money, won't even try to be competitive on Tanaka.

Umm.. $20m in posting fee then paying $15m - $20m a year for a guy who's 24 and pitched 1,315 innings in Japan. He's not a number #1 pitcher, he might not even be a #2. Like Darvish his numbers will jump in MLB. He's era will be closer to 3 or 4 like Darvish was. Darvish is a much better pitcher then Tanaka, but didn't pitch like a #1 last year. All this hype for Tanaka is misplaced.

He'll sign a big deal and some team will have a pitcher who has shoulder problems by 27.

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Umm.. $20m in posting fee then paying $15m - $20m a year for a guy who's 24 and pitched 1,315 innings in Japan. He's not a number #1 pitcher, he might not even be a #2. Like Darvish his numbers will jump in MLB. He's era will be closer to 3 or 4 like Darvish was. Darvish is a much better pitcher then Tanaka, but didn't pitch like a #1 last year. All this hype for Tanaka is misplaced.

He'll sign a big deal and some team will have a pitcher who has shoulder problems by 27.

Darvish 2013

210 IP

11.9 SO/9

6.2 H/IP

1.073 WHIP

2.84 xFIP

145 ERA+

Second in Cy Young Voting

What exactly are you looking for in a #1? The guy has the stuff to throw a perfect game every time he takes the mound, or strikeout 20+, or both. He's durable. He led baseball in strikeouts. He throws five pitches, two of which are arguably 80s.

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Darvish 2013

210 IP

11.9 SO/9

6.2 H/IP

1.073 WHIP

2.84 xFIP

145 ERA+

Second in Cy Young Voting

What exactly are you looking for in a #1? The guy has the stuff to throw a perfect game every time he takes the mound, or strikeout 20+, or both. He's durable. He led baseball in strikeouts. He throws five pitches, two of which are arguably 80s.

Have you read about his FB being close to a 70? Darvish boasts a plus to plus plus FB, everything I read about Tanaka works in the low to mid 90's. While that's not the problem, I also read Tanaka's FB is flat with less life than Darvish.

I'd also like to note, Darvish was one of the best pitchers in baseball and would have been the "ace" on any staff except LAD or maybe SEA.

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Umm.. $20m in posting fee then paying $15m - $20m a year for a guy who's 24 and pitched 1,315 innings in Japan. He's not a number #1 pitcher, he might not even be a #2. Like Darvish his numbers will jump in MLB. He's era will be closer to 3 or 4 like Darvish was. Darvish is a much better pitcher then Tanaka, but didn't pitch like a #1 last year. All this hype for Tanaka is misplaced.

He'll sign a big deal and some team will have a pitcher who has shoulder problems by 27.

Seriously what do you do in the warehouse? Do you work directly for Angelos or a little lower down the totem pole?

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Darvish 2013

210 IP

11.9 SO/9

6.2 H/IP

1.073 WHIP

2.84 xFIP

145 ERA+

Second in Cy Young Voting

What exactly are you looking for in a #1? The guy has the stuff to throw a perfect game every time he takes the mound, or strikeout 20+, or both. He's durable. He led baseball in strikeouts. He throws five pitches, two of which are arguably 80s.

Darvish: WAR 5.0.

Holland: WAR 4.8.

So Darvish, who you think is a #1, brought basically the same WAR to the table as Holland. And Darvish was even worse in 2012.

Any starting pitcher on any day could throw a perfect game, strikeout 20+ or both. Armando Galarraga is an example of that.

Darvish's 5 pitches aren't something to brag about. 4 and 2 seam fastball, slurve and curveball, splitter and a cutter.. then a change up once in a while. Once hitters figure out his tendency he'll be a solid #2 or lower like every other Japanese pitching talent that came to MLB. This typically happens by year 3 or 4. Nomo being a good example. There is a reason why NPB is known as AAAA baseball.

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Darvish: WAR 5.0.

Holland: WAR 4.8.

So Darvish, who you think is a #1, brought basically the same WAR to the table as Holland. And Darvish was even worse in 2012.

Any starting pitcher on any day could throw a perfect game, strikeout 20+ or both. Armando Galarraga is an example of that.

Darvish's 5 pitches aren't something to brag about. 4 and 2 seam fastball, slurve and curveball, splitter and a cutter.. then a change up once in a while. Once hitters figure out his tendency he'll be a solid #2 or lower like every other Japanese pitching talent that came to MLB. This typically happens by year 3 or 4. Nomo being a good example. There is a reason why NPB is known as AAAA baseball.

You're highlighting a flaw in using WAR as a "be all end all" stat, not flaws in Darvish. He's a top 5 arm in the game, no question. I think that is probably a result of you relying more on a stat page than actually seeing him throw -- just a guess.

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Have you read about his FB being close to a 70? Darvish boasts a plus to plus plus FB, everything I read about Tanaka works in the low to mid 90's. While that's not the problem, I also read Tanaka's FB is flat with less life than Darvish.

I'd also like to note, Darvish was one of the best pitchers in baseball and would have been the "ace" on any staff except LAD or maybe SEA.

I do not think Tanaka has any 70 pitches (some scouts give his split a 70, so maybe one?).

As I said above, Darvish is a monster. And it still took him a season and a half to really start to figure things out. Tanaka could be a very good MLB starter, but it's likely going to look different than it did in Japan, and it might take him some time to figure it out. The overall stuff just isn't as explosive as Darvish's.

I'd of course lean heavily on advice from evaluators who saw a lot of him over the last two seasons, but my general inclination is I wouldn't want to go over $10-12 MM a year for him, six years.

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You're highlighting a flaw in using WAR as a "be all end all" stat, not flaws in Darvish. He's a top 5 arm in the game, no question. I think that is probably a result of you relying more on a stat page than actually seeing him throw -- just a guess.

I know very little about WAR, but it seems like it has become the Grand Unifying Theory in baseball. Everything comes down to WAR (just like every time the O's screw up it comes down to Angelos). Sometimes, it's as if other stats and watching the games doesn't really matter. It's kind of funny, to me.

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I know very little about WAR, but it seems like it has become the Grand Unifying Theory in baseball. Everything comes down to WAR (just like every time the O's screw up it comes down to Angelos). Sometimes, it's as if other stats and watching the games doesn't really matter. It's kind of funny, to me.

WAR is a great summation stat -- I think it helps tell an overarching story, for sure. But you have to look at the components and at the story of the season to put it in context, for sure. We are better off having measuring stats like WAR, but I agree using it as a discussion ender in any context is probably silly.

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You're highlighting a flaw in using WAR as a "be all end all" stat, not flaws in Darvish. He's a top 5 arm in the game, no question. I think that is probably a result of you relying more on a stat page than actually seeing him throw -- just a guess.

You beat me to this point about WAR.

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