Jump to content

2014 Projected Strength of Schedule

Can_of_corn

By Can_of_corn
in MLB

Recommended Posts

Spy Fox Hangout Veteran Council

Spy Fox

Posted
Posted

Most likely whoever finishes last in the AL East will finish with the highest strength of schedule. So in my eyes, that is probably Toronto, but in the eyes of the computer projections, which we know don't love the O's roster, it makes sense that we're there at the top.

The NL East is really bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Migrant Redbird All-Star

Migrant Redbird

Posted
Posted

I'd like to see the same graph for the actual results of the 2013 season. Projections are fun, but they're not actuality.

Bernie Micklaus at the StL Post Dispatch citing 5 reasons for Cards fans to fret.

1. Injuries can take down any team.

?When you think about on-field success, it can be in a fragile state, given the fact that injuries can happen,? Mozeliak said. ?I think the one great compliment to this organization is, you lose (starter) Adam Wainwright and you still have success. You lose (starter) Chris Carpenter, and overcome it. You lose (closer) Jason Motte, and still find a way.

... But as you enter 2014, there?s no guarantees ?

2. The Cardinals can?t possibly hit .330 with runners in scoring position again, as they did last season.

... Mozeliak raises a point; last season the Cardinals batted only .236 with the bases empty, which ranked 29th among the 30 teams. They won?t be that bad again in 2014.

3. Missing the power of the departed Carlos Beltran, who averaged 28 homers in his two seasons in St. Louis.

?You may see more home runs from (Matt) Carpenter, Matt Adams and a full season of Allen Craig,? Mozeliak said. ?Matt Holliday is capable of hitting more homers. (Yadier) Molina is showing more power every year. I?m not concerned about that at all. And I think having Jhonny Peralta?s bat in the lineup certainly changes the look of it as well. Beltran was a scary bat, but losing his offense is something we can absorb. This lineup is deep enough where it should be OK.?

4. Replacing production in the No. 2 lineup spot.

In his two seasons as a Cardinal, Beltran batted .308 with a .355 on-base percentage and .547 slugging percentage and bashed 33 homers as the No. 2 hitter. The Cardinals don?t appear to have an ideal fit for a crucial slot in the lineup.

?I think there?s a lot of guys who can hit effectively in the two hole,? Mozeliak said. ?I don?t like to get into that, because that?s (manager) Mike Matheny?s responsibility. But I feel like there are three or four names that can do it and do it well.?

5. The Cardinals are relying on too many young arms.

And young arms tend to be fragile. Only one projected starter, Wainwright, has more than two major-league seasons as a starter. The five others ? Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez ? have combined for only 137 big-league starts. An overload of innings could be hazardous. Moreover, young Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal will be handling the role for an entire season, something he hasn?t done before.

We've seen major collapses in team performance before in my lifetime. 1965, 1969, 1983, 1986, 1988,... Those were teams expected to be far better than they turned out to be, and the decline lasted at least a couple seasons (except in 1986). The 1998 Orioles would be another, deeper example. That team seemed to geet old in a hurry.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • Yossarian
      Anyone tried the Immaculate Grid game?

      By Yossarian · Posted

      Got my all-time low rarity score on today's game - 6.
    • Baseball fandom
      Elias: Hyde will be back

      By Baseball fandom · Posted

      Lol.  I give up. Next. 
    • Baseball fandom
      Elias: Hyde will be back

      By Baseball fandom · Posted

      41 freaking years and here's this guy with the name pickles telling me I should be happy with 91 wins and getting owned in the playoffs again. 😂 😂 I saw a team that looked terrible the second half and probably didn't even deserve that spot the way they were playing .
    • Baseball fandom
      Elias: Hyde will be back

      By Baseball fandom · Posted

      Lol. Here's the funny they know more then you know. Typical Oriole fan who's happy with getting punched in the mouth. 
    • e16bball
      Walltimore

      By e16bball · Posted

      I don’t like the wall. I think it’s affecting our hitters. I’ve mentioned before that I think it has totally warped Mountcastle into something he was never really meant to be. The guy came up as a pull-heavy HR hitter, and in his first season-plus (725 PAs), he puts up 38 HRs and a 116 wRC+. Since then, the wRC+ is down to 110, and his approach has totally changed, with his pull numbers plummeting (down from 39% in 2021 to less than 28% this year). He still hits the ball hard, but constantly underachieves his batted ball data — probably because he’s trying to avoid the pull field and hitting balls to the deepest parts of pretty much every other park. Will the same thing happen to Mayo? Maybe he has more pure power, but it’s always going to be a challenge for a RH slugger to survive with that wall. So much harder to do damage.   Beyond that, I think it’s also creating a serious risk of changing our LH hitters’ approaches too. These guys (Henderson, Holliday, Cowser, 2/3 of Adley) have come up with a reputation for being able to drive the ball to all fields. But how long does that continue when they just can’t hit it out to the opposite field? Our LH hitters had a combined 44 wRC+ at OPACY, and only one HR. They had the 3rd most balls hit to LF at home by LHHs, but the lowest wRC+ of any team on those balls (for the second straight year). The Royals, ironically enough, were the only team that was lower than a 70 wRC+ — that’s how much worse our lefties fared going oppo (at OPACY) than everyone else’s. By player: Gunnar Henderson: 112 wRC+ / .160 ISO (51 PAs) Adley Rutschman: 10 wRC+ / .026 ISO (38 PAs) Anthony Santander: 14 wRC+ / .095 ISO (43 PAs) Colton Cowser: 58 wRC+ / .057 ISO (36 PAs) Ryan O’Hearn: 47 wRC+ / .091 ISO (55 PAs) Cedric Mullins: 23 wRC+ / .100 ISO (41 PAs) Jackson Holliday: -72 wRC+ / .000 ISO (16 PAs)   On the road, they had a combined 126 wRC+ (with 9 HRs) going to left field, so it’s not like they’re bad at it. It’s just Death Valley out there in LF for them at OPACY.  How long will it be until these LH guys just start going full pull-happy? Essentially, the opposite of what’s happened with Mountcastle. When (a) your team’s philosophy is to focus on doing damage and (b) you can’t DO damage to the opposite field — the rational endpoint is just to try to pull everything. I don’t think that’s a good outcome. I think it makes them much worse hitters in the other 81 games, and I think it’s a terrible waste of a bunch of really talented hitters with all-field abilities.
    • Pickles
      Elias: Hyde will be back

      By Pickles · Posted

      Which core players beside Adley Rutschman struggled?
    • Pat Kelly
      Elias: Hyde will be back

      By Pat Kelly · Posted

      The entire commentary on Hyde and the team seems odd but have to admit there does seem to be something off.   Team seemed adrift for most of the 2nd half.  A very talented team went off the rails midway through the season mostly due to core players struggling and rookies not performing or filling in adequately for a few injured starters.    None of the position player trade line acquisitions performed that well.     Hyde seemed in over his head or at a loss on how to correct things, but he must have convinced Elias that he has a plan to fix things.  Curious to see what happens with the coaching staff.  

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...