Jump to content

2014 A.L. East Standings

OFFNY

By OFFNY
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

Malike Hangout Grand Counsel

Malike

Posted
Posted
How do they come up with those odds? Yankees and Orioles still play 8 times. 6 game lead is nothing.

Using your logic, we'd have 8 games left against the Yankees with a 6 game lead and then the season would end. That's why you don't understand how they come up with those odds. You have to figure that the Yankees need to win 6 games that the O's lose, while playing other teams as well. They take into account things like strength of schedule, home/road games, records vs opponents. You are looking it at in a very simplistic way. The next time we play the Yankees we could have a 3 game lead or a 14 game lead. It's basically a 12 game swing they need until we play them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 201
  • Created
  • Last Reply
VeveJones007 Hangout Veteran Council

VeveJones007

Posted
Posted
How do they come up with those odds? Yankees and Orioles still play 8 times. 6 game lead is nothing.

Because the Yankees are mediocre at best. Their pythagorean record is 61-67.

In a computer model, the O's win 4 or 5 of the remaining 8 games between the two teams, which means that the Yankees have to be 6 or 7 games better than the O's over 25 games. That's a monumental task for a mediocre team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Crazysilver03 Hangout Grand Counsel

Crazysilver03

Posted
Posted
o

PLAYOFF ODDS O (E.S.P.N.)

ORIOLES .....)0O 75-55 OOOOO 96.7 %

YANKEES .....)Oo 68-62 OOOOO 6.80 %

BLUE JAYS)..O 66-66 OOOOO 1.20 %

D-RAYS........).0O 64-68 OOOOO 0.10 %

RED SOX OOOOO 58-74 OOOOO 0.10 %

94.5% probabilty of winning the division now.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/probability.jsp?ymd=20140826

That's the M.L.B.com version.

As you can see, I am (and have been) using the E.S.P.N. version, as I have typed out on the top line of my posts:

Everyone is right. CA cited the probability of winning the division but the MLB site (powered by Baseball Prospectus) also gives them a 2% chance of winning the wild card, bringing them to a 96.5% probability of playoffs. Just a tad lower than ESPN.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Everyone is right. CA cited the probability of winning the division but the MLB site (powered by Baseball Prospectus) also gives them a 2% chance of winning the wild card, bringing them to a 96.5% probability of playoffs. Just a tad lower than ESPN.

I never said that CA was wrong, or that I was right.

CA quoted me in reference to the odds changing, presuming that his finding was using the same chart as the one that I had posted, and I pointed out that it wasn't.

If anyone wants to post different versions than the one that I am using from ESPN, then by all means do so, but I don't want them to be incorrectly intertwined/compared.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OFFNY Hangout Grand Counsel

OFFNY

Posted
  • Author
Posted

o

We have a thread in the M.L.B. section if posters want to follow and talk about the Yankees/Tigers game:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/140033-Off-Day-for-the-O-s-Root-Against-the-Yankees/page17

There is also the Yankees' annual thread in said section:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/140032-2014-New-York-Yankees/page18

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...