3/33 extension: Hardy or Markakis

[Il BuonO]

Easier to find a replacement for Nick than JJ. Hardy is currently still the best defensive SS in the AL and his bat is stiil good for a SS. Barring a HanRam signing, I don't see any better options at SS.

Really? How about the guy playing 3B? I'm tired of people saying Manny might not be as good at SS. So what? He'll give us reasonably good defense there and we won't have to worry about signing an extension for a guy who looks like he's ready to go into decline.

I appreciate what JJ has done for us but it's time to move on.

[Reboulet'sStache]

Hardy is not declining defensively. If anything he's having one of his best years with the glove. Manny may be as good at SS as Hardy, but I doubt it. And nobody is going to give you near what you get from Manny at 3B.

I just worry about Hardy's range in the next few years.

And you can find someone whose bat is better at third than Manny's. Manny has the ceiling to be the best defensive SS in the game with an ability to hit better than most SS. You can't keep that at third. It's like in football. If you have someone that has the potential to be the best TE or the best QB, you try him at QB first, because that is where you get the most value. If he fails you move him back to TE.

[El Gordo]

Really? How about the guy playing 3B? I'm tired of people saying Manny might not be as good at SS. So what? He'll give us reasonably good defense there and we won't have to worry about signing an extension for a guy who looks like he's ready to go into decline.

I appreciate what JJ has done for us but it's time to move on.

You aren't coming near to finding a 3W 3B with the glove, to replace Manny. And IMO his bat is going to play fine at 3B. I think he'll be a 20+ HR 80-100 RBI guy. In other words Hardy's bat with an otherworldly glove. I think he'll be basically Hardy's bat and glove at SS at SS.

[DrungoHazewood]

Really? How about the guy playing 3B? I'm tired of people saying Manny might not be as good at SS. So what? He'll give us reasonably good defense there and we won't have to worry about signing an extension for a guy who looks like he's ready to go into decline.

I appreciate what JJ has done for us but it's time to move on.

I'm tired of people assuming that Manny's value to the team would be just as high at short. I don't see why the O's couldn't find another decent shortstop.

I just worry about Hardy's range in the next few years.

And you can find someone whose bat is better at third than Manny's. Manny has the ceiling to be the best defensive SS in the game with an ability to hit better than most SS. You can't keep that at third. It's like in football. If you have someone that has the potential to be the best TE or the best QB' date=' you try him at QB first, because that is where you get the most value. If he fails you move him back to TE.[/quote']

I'm not sure you can find someone whose bat is better than Manny's at third. I think it's pretty likely he gets dramatically better with the bat over the next few years.

And it's not like some video game where you just plug in anybody you want. You may think Manny has the ability to be the best defensive shortstop in the game, but he really is the best, or at least one of the very best, defensive third basemen in the game. This isn't some nutty Tim Tebow thing where he fails at QB and you slide him over to TE to try to get something out of him, this is a guy who already has a ton of value at third. The positional difference between third and short is only, what, five runs? If Manny is just a "reasonably good" defensive shortstop, but he's a +15 or +20 third baseman he'll be less valuable to the O's at shortstop.

[El Gordo]

I just worry about Hardy's range in the next few years.

And you can find someone whose bat is better at third than Manny's. Manny has the ceiling to be the best defensive SS in the game with an ability to hit better than most SS. You can't keep that at third. It's like in football. If you have someone that has the potential to be the best TE or the best QB' date=' you try him at QB first, because that is where you get the most value. If he fails you move him back to TE.[/quote']Manny will not be Tulo at SS with the bat nor will he be Simmons with glove. If you can sign Hanley to play 3B and move Manny to SS you would have essentially the same production overall that you would have if you stuck with Hardy and Manny. SS and 3B. Only it would cost you a whole lot more.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I'm not sure you can find someone whose bat is better than Manny's at third. I think it's pretty likely he gets dramatically better with the bat over the next few years.

And it's not like some video game where you just plug in anybody you want. You may think Manny has the ability to be the best defensive shortstop in the game, but he really is the best, or at least one of the very best, defensive third basemen in the game. This isn't some nutty Tim Tebow thing where he fails at QB and you slide him over to TE to try to get something out of him, this is a guy who already has a ton of value at third. The positional difference between third and short is only, what, five runs? If Manny is just a "reasonably good" defensive shortstop, but he's a +15 or +20 third baseman he'll be less valuable to the O's at shortstop.

See I don't think Manny's bat is going to get a ton better, at least not what I would want out of third. It doesn't have to get that much better to play at SS.

I dont' think Manny is going to be just reasonably good at SS. I think he will be at least top 5 defensively and offensively, making him the best SS in the game. It's hard enough finding an overall "good" SS. Most that can hit, can't field. Most that can field, can't hit. 3B isn't the hardest to find. You can put Chris Davis there if you have to and he will give you reasonably good production. That isn't true of SS. I'd rather have my SS position locked down and be looking for a 3B, than have my 3B locked down and be looking for a SS.

[El Gordo]

See I don't think Manny's bat is going to get a ton better' date=' at least not what I would want out of third. It doesn't have to get that much better to play at SS.

I dont' think Manny is going to be just reasonably good at SS. I think he will be at least top 5 defensively and offensively, making him the best SS in the game. It's hard enough finding an overall "good" SS. Most that can hit, can't field. Most that can field, can't hit. 3B isn't the hardest to find. You can put Chris Davis there if you have to and he will give you reasonably good production. That isn't true of SS. I'd rather have my SS position locked down and be looking for a 3B, than have my 3B locked down and be looking for a SS.[/quote']I don't think you are factoring in the value of runs saved with your idea of production at a position. Davis might have a higher oWar than Manny at 3B, but his dWAR would be so poor that he wouldn't come close to the 5-6 WAR that Manny would out up. Move Manny to SS and you would have to get Donaldson, Cabrera, Longoria, or Beltre to play 3B. Otherwise you are going to take a big hit in total runs.

[Reboulet'sStache]

I don't think you are factoring in the value of runs saved with your idea of production at a position. Davis might have a higher oWar than Manny at 3B, but his dWAR would be so poor that he wouldn't come close to the 5-6 WAR that Manny would out up.

I'm aware. My point wasn't to play Davis at 3b. But instead that the position is easy enough to play that guys like Davis and Cabrera can play it to a level where their negative dWAR doesn't outweigh their oWAR. You can find bats that can play defense at a good enough level at 3B. That's not easy at SS.

[Art Wing]

I'm tired of people assuming that Manny's value to the team would be just as high at short. I don't see why the O's couldn't find another decent shortstop.

I'm not sure you can find someone whose bat is better than Manny's at third. I think it's pretty likely he gets dramatically better with the bat over the next few years.

And it's not like some video game where you just plug in anybody you want. You may think Manny has the ability to be the best defensive shortstop in the game, but he really is the best, or at least one of the very best, defensive third basemen in the game. This isn't some nutty Tim Tebow thing where he fails at QB and you slide him over to TE to try to get something out of him, this is a guy who already has a ton of value at third. The positional difference between third and short is only, what, five runs? If Manny is just a "reasonably good" defensive shortstop, but he's a +15 or +20 third baseman he'll be less valuable to the O's at shortstop.

One other thing to consider is that Manny has said (between the lines) that he wants to be at short. We should take that into account as well.

[El Gordo]

I'm aware. My point wasn't to play Davis at 3b. But instead that the position is easy enough to play that guys like Davis and Cabrera can play it to a level where their negative dWAR doesn't outweigh their oWAR. You can find bats that can play defense at a good enough level at 3B. That's not easy at SS.

How easy is it to find guys like Cabrera or Davis 2013 to play 3B. They don't grow on trees. There just aren't that many good hitting 3B around to make up the 5-6 WAR you are losing by moving Manny. And unless you think last year was Manny's ceiling with the bat he very likely will have better years than 5-6 WAR.

[Reboulet'sStache]

How easy is it to find guys like Cabrera or Davis 2013 to play 3B. They don't grow on trees. There just aren't that many good hitting 3B around to make up the 5-6 WAR you are losing by moving Manny. And unless you think last year was Manny's ceiling with the bat he very likely will have better years than 5-6 WAR.

I don't need Cabrera at 3B, especially when I have Machado at SS. I don't need a 5 to 6 WAR player at 3B.

SS is the hardest position to find. Value wise, Machado at SS + a waiver wire 3B > Machado at 3B + waiver wire SS.

[SteveO]

How easy is it to find guys like Cabrera or Davis 2013 to play 3B. They don't grow on trees. There just aren't that many good hitting 3B around to make up the 5-6 WAR you are losing by moving Manny. And unless you think last year was Manny's ceiling with the bat he very likely will have better years than 5-6 WAR.

If you move Manny to SS next season you will get more production from him than than JJ would give you at SS

I am almost positive this team can find a 3rd who will give you JJ type production while not killing you with the glove at a fraction of the cost.

Even if you take Bundy, KG and Harvey off the table we have the resources to trade for a guy who can give you an OPS higher than .672 and play half decent defense. My guess that does not cost you 11 million either

[SteveO]

Limited duty but Flaherty has an OPS of .665 technically moving him to 3B and Manny to SS would give you similar production for 11 million less and perhaps a slight downgrade in defense but not enough it will cost games IMO.

Not advocating this just making the point that Hardy is only a 11 million dollar player in this scenario because he is a SS....we have one of those who makes pennies in comparison. I would rather spend that 11 million on a position were I can more bang for the buck

[El Gordo]

I don't need Cabrera at 3B' date=' especially when I have Machado at SS. I don't need a 5 to 6 WAR player at 3B.

SS is the hardest position to find. Value wise, Machado at SS + a waiver wire 3B > Machado at 3B + waiver wire SS.[/quote']If you play a lesser player at 3B you are downgrading your overall production unless you think Manny can play a better SS than he does a 3B.

[El Gordo]

If you move Manny to SS next season you will get more production from him than than JJ would give you at SS

I am almost positive this team can find a 3rd who will give you JJ type production while not killing you with the glove at a fraction of the cost.

Even if you take Bundy, KG and Harvey off the table we have the resources to trade for a guy who can give you an OPS higher than .672 and play half decent defense. My guess that does not cost you 11 million either

I'm not. Production includes runs saved. Last year Hardy was worth 4.8 r WAR. The only 3B who could give you that kind of production are

Donaldson, Cabrera, Longoria, Machado, and Beltre. Everyone else who qualified last year was 3.5 WAR or less.