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Markakis - Historical Comps Aged Well

Orange

By Orange
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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Depends what the market actually is. If he really thinks he can get 3/36 to 3/40. I'm not sure it's that great of an idea to take 1/15.3.

He's not going to know whether he can get 3/$36 mm or more until after the deadline for accepting the QO. Nobody really gets offers until the teams know who has received a QO. It's possible his agent can gauge the market based on informal discussions, but I doubt a formal 3/$36 mm offer is going to be on the table, and maybe not even a reliable indication of whether such an offer will be forthcoming. Look at what happened with Cruz -- do you think he would have turned down the QO if he'd known how his negotiations were going to turn out?

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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He's not going to know whether he can get 3/$36 mm or more until after the deadline for accepting the QO. Nobody really gets offers until the teams know who has received a QO. It's possible his agent can gauge the market based on informal discussions, but I doubt a formal 3/$36 mm offer is going to be on the table, and maybe not even a reliable indication of whether such an offer will be forthcoming. Look at what happened with Cruz -- do you think he would have turned down the QO if he'd known how his negotiations were going to turn out?

I didn't say there weren't any risks involved in evaluating the market, particularly with the QO. That said, I would not say he'd be a fool to turn down 1/15 mil and this years market will be different than lasts.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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He's not going to know whether he can get 3/$36 mm or more until after the deadline for accepting the QO. Nobody really gets offers until the teams know who has received a QO. It's possible his agent can gauge the market based on informal discussions, but I doubt a formal 3/$36 mm offer is going to be on the table, and maybe not even a reliable indication of whether such an offer will be forthcoming. Look at what happened with Cruz -- do you think he would have turned down the QO if he'd known how his negotiations were going to turn out?
Why would Nick get a 3/36 M offer with the QO pick loss, if Cruz couldn't? Is 2014 Nick really that much more valuable than the 2013 Cruz? Did PED's really matter that much?
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Let Markakis go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/L0MK7qz13bU?feature=player_detailpage" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Why would Nick get a 3/36 M offer with the QO pick loss, if Cruz couldn't? Is 2014 Nick really that much more valuable than the 2013 Cruz? Did PED's really matter that much?

I do think the PED issue put a good dent in Cruz's market. However, I agree with you that it's unlikely that Nick will be offered 3/$36 mm if he also costs a pick. And that's why I don't think he should turn down the QO if he gets one.

I do think that the degree of certainty that some posters are expressing that Nick won't be worth more than 6 WAR the next three years is unwarranted. There are many players who had good years in their early 30's after stalling out for a bit. I'm not saying it's likely this happens with Nick, just that people shouldn't be so confident in forecasting the future when it comes to just about any player who has been a pretty good player for a long time.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Could Cruz not get that offer' date=' or just refused it as being beneath would he thought he should make?[/quote']

Cruz tried for something in the 4/65 range until he ran out of road. The 1/8 was a gamble on his ability to get that again. After putting up good numbers and having another year to put PEDs in his taillights.

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AlbionHero Major Leaguer

AlbionHero

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Could Cruz not get that offer' date=' or just refused it as being beneath would he thought he should make?[/quote']

Thats what I'm thinking. Early on n the process he could have easily have gotten a deal like that or more, but when he was finally willing to go lower teams had spent their money already.

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AlbionHero Major Leaguer

AlbionHero

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Cruz tried for something in the 4/65 range until he ran out of road. The 1/8 was a gamble on his ability to get that again. After putting up good numbers and having another year to put PEDs in his taillights.

And after the year he had, I see no reason he shouldn't try to get that 4/65 again... and he might just get it this time.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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And after the year he had, I see no reason he shouldn't try to get that 4/65 again... and he might just get it this time.

I hope he either takes a QO with the O's, or gets at least 4/65 from someone. Because it's always nice to see some other team with a 37-year-old DH with a .700 OPS making $18M a year.

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CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

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I do think the PED issue put a good dent in Cruz's market. However, I agree with you that it's unlikely that Nick will be offered 3/$36 mm if he also costs a pick. And that's why I don't think he should turn down the QO if he gets one.

What if the offer was 3/36 with another 2 mil buyout on the third year. Say 26 Mil guaranteed money for 2 years. Would he still be a fool to turn down the 15 mil?

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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I do think the PED issue put a good dent in Cruz's market. However, I agree with you that it's unlikely that Nick will be offered 3/$36 mm if he also costs a pick. And that's why I don't think he should turn down the QO if he gets one.

I do think that the degree of certainty that some posters are expressing that Nick won't be worth more than 6 WAR the next three years is unwarranted. There are many players who had good years in their early 30's after stalling out for a bit. I'm not saying it's likely this happens with Nick, just that people shouldn't be so confident in forecasting the future when it comes to just about any player who has been a pretty good player for a long time.

Nick may well be worth more than 6 WAR the next 3 years, but if I am negotiating a contract I am not counting on it. I think a 6 WAR estimate is as much risk as I would want to take.
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BarclaySouthway Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

BarclaySouthway

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That's what he's worth at going free agent rates. Below some threshold around league average performance many teams will forgo major free agents and attempt to acquire less expensive talent via trades or platoons or non-tenders or waiver pickups or under-the-radar international talent. You could argue that a below-average 1 WAR regular might be worth $3M/year in free agency, but nobody would ever sign such a player to a 3/9 or 5/15 contract.

i guess I meant "team friendly" from Nick's perspective, in the sense that he might be leaving a couple million on the table from another team.

I'm aware if we resign Nick, there's a good chance it's an overpay no matter how big the hometown discount is.

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