Jump to content

Markakis - Historical Comps Aged Well

Orange

By Orange
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 90
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
Depends what the market actually is. If he really thinks he can get 3/36 to 3/40. I'm not sure it's that great of an idea to take 1/15.3.

He's not going to know whether he can get 3/$36 mm or more until after the deadline for accepting the QO. Nobody really gets offers until the teams know who has received a QO. It's possible his agent can gauge the market based on informal discussions, but I doubt a formal 3/$36 mm offer is going to be on the table, and maybe not even a reliable indication of whether such an offer will be forthcoming. Look at what happened with Cruz -- do you think he would have turned down the QO if he'd known how his negotiations were going to turn out?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

Posted
Posted
He's not going to know whether he can get 3/$36 mm or more until after the deadline for accepting the QO. Nobody really gets offers until the teams know who has received a QO. It's possible his agent can gauge the market based on informal discussions, but I doubt a formal 3/$36 mm offer is going to be on the table, and maybe not even a reliable indication of whether such an offer will be forthcoming. Look at what happened with Cruz -- do you think he would have turned down the QO if he'd known how his negotiations were going to turn out?

I didn't say there weren't any risks involved in evaluating the market, particularly with the QO. That said, I would not say he'd be a fool to turn down 1/15 mil and this years market will be different than lasts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

Posted
Posted
He's not going to know whether he can get 3/$36 mm or more until after the deadline for accepting the QO. Nobody really gets offers until the teams know who has received a QO. It's possible his agent can gauge the market based on informal discussions, but I doubt a formal 3/$36 mm offer is going to be on the table, and maybe not even a reliable indication of whether such an offer will be forthcoming. Look at what happened with Cruz -- do you think he would have turned down the QO if he'd known how his negotiations were going to turn out?
Why would Nick get a 3/36 M offer with the QO pick loss, if Cruz couldn't? Is 2014 Nick really that much more valuable than the 2013 Cruz? Did PED's really matter that much?
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

Let Markakis go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/L0MK7qz13bU?feature=player_detailpage" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
Posted
Why would Nick get a 3/36 M offer with the QO pick loss, if Cruz couldn't? Is 2014 Nick really that much more valuable than the 2013 Cruz? Did PED's really matter that much?

I do think the PED issue put a good dent in Cruz's market. However, I agree with you that it's unlikely that Nick will be offered 3/$36 mm if he also costs a pick. And that's why I don't think he should turn down the QO if he gets one.

I do think that the degree of certainty that some posters are expressing that Nick won't be worth more than 6 WAR the next three years is unwarranted. There are many players who had good years in their early 30's after stalling out for a bit. I'm not saying it's likely this happens with Nick, just that people shouldn't be so confident in forecasting the future when it comes to just about any player who has been a pretty good player for a long time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted
Could Cruz not get that offer' date=' or just refused it as being beneath would he thought he should make?[/quote']

Cruz tried for something in the 4/65 range until he ran out of road. The 1/8 was a gamble on his ability to get that again. After putting up good numbers and having another year to put PEDs in his taillights.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
AlbionHero Major Leaguer

AlbionHero

Posted
Posted
Could Cruz not get that offer' date=' or just refused it as being beneath would he thought he should make?[/quote']

Thats what I'm thinking. Early on n the process he could have easily have gotten a deal like that or more, but when he was finally willing to go lower teams had spent their money already.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
AlbionHero Major Leaguer

AlbionHero

Posted
Posted
Cruz tried for something in the 4/65 range until he ran out of road. The 1/8 was a gamble on his ability to get that again. After putting up good numbers and having another year to put PEDs in his taillights.

And after the year he had, I see no reason he shouldn't try to get that 4/65 again... and he might just get it this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

Posted
Posted
And after the year he had, I see no reason he shouldn't try to get that 4/65 again... and he might just get it this time.

I hope he either takes a QO with the O's, or gets at least 4/65 from someone. Because it's always nice to see some other team with a 37-year-old DH with a .700 OPS making $18M a year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

Posted
Posted
I do think the PED issue put a good dent in Cruz's market. However, I agree with you that it's unlikely that Nick will be offered 3/$36 mm if he also costs a pick. And that's why I don't think he should turn down the QO if he gets one.

What if the offer was 3/36 with another 2 mil buyout on the third year. Say 26 Mil guaranteed money for 2 years. Would he still be a fool to turn down the 15 mil?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

Posted
Posted
I do think the PED issue put a good dent in Cruz's market. However, I agree with you that it's unlikely that Nick will be offered 3/$36 mm if he also costs a pick. And that's why I don't think he should turn down the QO if he gets one.

I do think that the degree of certainty that some posters are expressing that Nick won't be worth more than 6 WAR the next three years is unwarranted. There are many players who had good years in their early 30's after stalling out for a bit. I'm not saying it's likely this happens with Nick, just that people shouldn't be so confident in forecasting the future when it comes to just about any player who has been a pretty good player for a long time.

Nick may well be worth more than 6 WAR the next 3 years, but if I am negotiating a contract I am not counting on it. I think a 6 WAR estimate is as much risk as I would want to take.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BarclaySouthway Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

BarclaySouthway

Posted
Posted
That's what he's worth at going free agent rates. Below some threshold around league average performance many teams will forgo major free agents and attempt to acquire less expensive talent via trades or platoons or non-tenders or waiver pickups or under-the-radar international talent. You could argue that a below-average 1 WAR regular might be worth $3M/year in free agency, but nobody would ever sign such a player to a 3/9 or 5/15 contract.

i guess I meant "team friendly" from Nick's perspective, in the sense that he might be leaving a couple million on the table from another team.

I'm aware if we resign Nick, there's a good chance it's an overpay no matter how big the hometown discount is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Posts

    • EddeeEddee
      Bullpen 2024

      By EddeeEddee · Posted

      Especially when you factor in the DL Hall trade too.  Suarez and Wells get bumped to the pen only if Bradish and Means are effective starters a decent part of the season.  Would the O's promote Povich or McDermott to pitch relief?  My guess is not anytime soon, but I dunno. A trade would for one or two arms would be best, but trading for good relief pitching is only harder now because so many teams can make the playoffs.  
    • EddeeEddee
      Off-season Qualifying Offer Question

      By EddeeEddee · Posted

      But O'Hearn's numbers are inflated because he never bats against lefties, plus he's trash in the outfield.  If Santander's hitting does not improve this season of course you don't give him a QO, but that's unlikely.  He'll probably pick it up as the weather heats up.  Plus Tony plays at least a decent RF and can play first base too.   Like others have said, should the O's offer Santander a QO?  Maybe -- it depends on how he performs and how Kjerstad and Stowers perform.  
    • 24fps
      Off-season Qualifying Offer Question

      By 24fps · Posted

      Wait, since when is money no object? It remains to be seen what the budget constraints are going to be with the new ownership, but if Santander is projected to put up 3.0 WAR for $20 million and his replacement (Kjerstad/Cowser/Stowers...) can put up 2.5 WAR for less than a million then that will be factored in.  The goal will never be about being better than the other 29 teams in a payroll vacuum.
    • emmett16
      Jackson Holliday 2024

      By emmett16 · Posted

      I think you have a good understanding and I assume you’ve read Ted Williams Science of Hitting.  It’s all about lining up planes of pitch and bat.  Historically with sinkers and low strikes a higher attack angle played and was more in alignment with pitch plane.  In today’s game of spin and high zone fastball an uppercut swing gives you minimal chance and results in top spin grounders and swing & miss. 
    • Can_of_corn
      Jackson Holliday 2024

      By Can_of_corn · Posted

      I'll bow to your expertise even if it seems unlikely to my laymen understanding. 
    • emmett16
      Jackson Holliday 2024

      By emmett16 · Posted

      Actually it will.  As you noted.  MLB pitch plane is like 2-3 degrees.  The more your attack angle increased the more you’re hitting a top spin tennis return.  
    • Can_of_corn
      Jackson Holliday 2024

      By Can_of_corn · Posted

      My point was an overly uppercut swing isn't going to result in that low a launch angle.  Not unless he is somehow consistently topping the pitches, which seems pretty unlikely.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...