The 2015 OPS Projections Thread

[ArtVanDelay]

Davis .916

Schoop .687

Flaherty .639

Hardy .713

Machado .810

Wieters .721

Joseph .688

Snider .767

Pearce .836

Lough .699

Jones .804

Young .740

De Aza .684

[Beef Supreme]

Be the dumbest thing that the team could do. Dumber than putting Ubaldo in the pen.

Meh. There are a lot dumber things than that, I'm sure you'd agree in hindsight.

At least you could have trusted Quintin Berry to steal a base, which you can't count on from lough. I get that he's a speedy outfielder -- so fast he likes to show it off by running over his teammates. To me, lough is the most easily replaced player whom people expect to make the team. The *only* thing keeping him on the squad, in my view, is being the backup centerfielder.

Just because he is cheap or his salary/war ratio looks good doesn't mean he's a good value. Or that he's critical to a team's chances of making the playoffs. The Orioles could do better with that roster spot.

[Beef Supreme]

Be the dumbest thing that the team could do. Dumber than putting Ubaldo in the pen.

Maybe you or someone else can let me/us know whether Lough can refuse assignment if DFA'd

My thinking is that most teams would feel comfortable with their outfielders going into their second or third game of the season and lough would pass through waivers. He could be valuable in AAA as organizational depth should an injury warrant the need on the ML squad. But he is the most expendable Oriole, imo. Not that I would ever wish injury on any Oriole, but I think the team would miss him the least.

And if Lough proves to be irreplaceable, more power to him. It would make for a great, feel-good story.

[Can_of_corn]

Maybe you or someone else can let me/us know whether Lough can refuse assignment if DFA'd

My thinking is that most teams would feel comfortable with their outfielders going into their second or third game of the season and lough would pass through waivers. He could be valuable in AAA as organizational depth should an injury warrant the need on the ML squad. But he is the most expendable Oriole, imo. Not that I would ever wish injury on any Oriole, but I think the team would miss him the least.

And if Lough proves to be irreplaceable, more power to him. It would make for a great, feel-good story.

So you think Lough is more replaceable then Young, or whomever ends up the last arm out of the pen?

Hmmm.

[Beef Supreme]

So you think Lough is more replaceable then Young, or whomever ends up the last arm out of the pen?

Hmmm.

I do, yes.

[MurphDogg]

Maybe you or someone else can let me/us know whether Lough can refuse assignment if DFA'd

My thinking is that most teams would feel comfortable with their outfielders going into their second or third game of the season and lough would pass through waivers. He could be valuable in AAA as organizational depth should an injury warrant the need on the ML squad. But he is the most expendable Oriole, imo. Not that I would ever wish injury on any Oriole, but I think the team would miss him the least.

And if Lough proves to be irreplaceable, more power to him. It would make for a great, feel-good story.

I would be fall on the floor shocked if David Lough cleared waivers.

[Beef Supreme]

I would be fall on the floor shocked if David Lough cleared waivers.

Ok. Let me know your thinking on that, please.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Ok. Let me know your thinking on that, please.

He's provided starter value on reserve/sub levels of plate appearances. He has great defense and has 96 OPS+ in each of the least two seasons. At the very least there would be several teams that would be absolutely tickled for him to be their 4th OF making league minimum, with 3 additional years of control thereafter.

[MurphDogg]

He's provided starter value on reserve/sub levels of plate appearances. He has great defense and has 96 OPS+ in each of the least two seasons. At the very least there would be several teams that would be absolutely tickled for him to be their 4th OF making league minimum, with 3 additional years of control thereafter.

Pretty much. Anybody making league minimum who has accumulated 4.1 WAR over the last two seasons wouldn't clear waivers unless he had major off the field issues. It would be unprecedented. He would have to hit .135 through the month of May AND get a DUI or suspended to clear waivers.

[Beef Supreme]

He's provided starter value on reserve/sub levels of plate appearances. He has great defense and has 96 OPS+ in each of the least two seasons. At the very least there would be several teams that would be absolutely tickled for him to be their 4th OF making league minimum, with 3 additional years of control thereafter.

Granted, none of us knows the final rosters of every team. And that would play a big part. I see a guy who, if he played more than he has the past two seasons, would look substantially worse statistically.

[Beef Supreme]

He would have to hit .135 through the month of May AND get a DUI or suspended to clear waivers.

I could definitely see the first part of this happening.

[MurphDogg]

Granted, none of us knows the final rosters of every team. And that would play a big part. I see a guy who, if he played more than he has the past two seasons, would look substantially worse statistically.

Yeah, but so what? Every team has a fourth outfielder, very few teams have a fourth outfielder who has averaged 2 WAR over the last two seasons.

[Beef Supreme]

Yeah, but so what? Every team has a fourth outfielder, very few teams have a fourth outfielder who has averaged 2 WAR over the last two seasons.

This is good illustration of why I think WAR, though fun, is an inherently flawed statistic. Wasn't Lough's WAR almost the same as Cruz's last year? Replace Cruz with Lough for the 2014 season and the team would have won fewer than 90 games, i believe.

[ArtVanDelay]

Maybe you or someone else can let me/us know whether Lough can refuse assignment if DFA'd

My thinking is that most teams would feel comfortable with their outfielders going into their second or third game of the season and lough would pass through waivers. He could be valuable in AAA as organizational depth should an injury warrant the need on the ML squad. But he is the most expendable Oriole, imo. Not that I would ever wish injury on any Oriole, but I think the team would miss him the least.

And if Lough proves to be irreplaceable, more power to him. It would make for a great, feel-good story.

Dude, you are WAY off. David Lough would never clear waivers. 5 years of team control left. 4.1 WAR over the last 2 seasons despite being a 4th outfielder. I think he could put up a 4+ WAR season if he had the opportunity to play everyday.

[ArtVanDelay]

This is good illustration of why I think WAR, though fun, is an inherently flawed statistic. Wasn't Lough's WAR almost the same as Cruz's last year? Replace Cruz with Lough for the 2014 season and the team would have won fewer than 90 games, i believe.

Nope. Cruz was 4.7. Lough was 1.6.