The 2015 OPS Projections Thread

[Frobby]

I'm starting my annual collections of projections for Orioles players, and consequent team projections. In the chart below, the assumptions about plate appearances are mine, and the OPS projections for the individual players come from the source indicated. Combining the two yields the following:

Player	 PA	ZiPS	Steamer	CAIRO	RotochampDavis	600	0.821	0.813	0.822	0.826Schoop	550	0.685	0.639	0.633	0.619Flah'ty	275	0.668	0.655	0.665	0.645Hardy	550	0.681	0.691	0.711	0.703Machado	600	0.771	0.755	0.764	0.753Wieters	500	0.749	0.729	0.745	0.729Joseph	200	0.652	0.616	0.636	0.614Snider	400	0.719	0.773	0.706	0.719Pearce	450	0.818	0.816	0.849	0.869Lough	200	0.661	0.674	0.683	0.684Jones	600	0.791	0.775	0.805	0.796Young	250	0.698	0.712	0.742	0.733De Aza	400	0.716	0.722	0.728	0.703Other	700	0.651	0.651	0.651	0.651TOTALS	6275	0.729	0.723	0.731	0.725

I'll add more sources as the spring goes along. If any BP subscriber wants to feed me what PECOTA says for each of these players, I will include it. Eventually, I will refine my PA assumptions based on what happens this spring. If anyone thinks I'm way off base on how the PA will be allocated, or wants to chime in with their projections to add to this chart, I'm all ears.

[wildcard]

Why do you think the O's will get 6275 PAs? Over the past three years the O's have been between 6130-6160.

[Frobby]

Why do you think the O's will get 6275 PAs? Over the past three years the O's have been between 6130-6160.

You're right. I did that from memory of what was typical, but I was a bit off. League average was 6147 last year. I'll round it to 6150 the next time I add in some data.

[AlbionHero]

All of the projection systems love Pearce next year and they have him as our overall highest average OPS. I hope he can live up to those expectations.

[malkusm]

All of the projection systems love Pearce next year and they have him as our overall highest average OPS. I hope he can live up to those expectations.

I think he'll be 4th (all estimates completely made up on the spot by yours truly):

Jones (.825)

Davis (.810)

Machado (.795)

Pearce (.785)

[Can_of_corn]

All of the projection systems love Pearce next year and they have him as our overall highest average OPS. I hope he can live up to those expectations.

I expect a hot start for him with the O's starting off facing the Rays.

[25 Nuggets]

You're right. I did that from memory of what was typical, but I was a bit off. League average was 6147 last year. I'll round it to 6150 the next time I add in some data.

Last year the Orioles got 535 PA from the "other" category, meaning pitchers and position players 14th or lower on the PA list. If I were to knock 125 PA off your projection, I'd go with 575 PA from "other".

[25 Nuggets]

A team OPS of .723 to .731 represents a drop from last year's .734 OPS by a good margin to a little bit -- however it's worth noting that even a .723 OPS would have finished 4th in the AL behind Boston, Toronto and LA. So overall, I'm OK with it. (Especially if they're wrong and runs per game stays about the same this year )

[oriole]

If we can get a group of 4 or more hitters with an OPS around .800 or so then I think they'll be in good shape. There's not necessarily a need for a superstar home run leader type of guy. If its consistent across the board of above average hitters than good things can happen. Between Jones, Davis, Machado, Wieters, Pearce, and maybe even Hardy I think they all have a fair shot to have an OPS in the .780 -.820 range.

[wildcard]

If we can get a group of 4 or more hitters with an OPS around .800 or so then I think they'll be in good shape. There's not necessarily a need for a superstar home run leader type of guy. If its consistent across the board of above average hitters than good things can happen. Between Jones, Davis, Machado, Wieters, Pearce, and maybe even Hardy I think they all have a fair shot to have an OPS in the .780 -.820 range.

There is really no reason to project that Wieters would maintain an OPS of that level over a whole season. He did it for a month last year. But he hasn't done it for a full season in his 5 years in the majors. He came close in 2011.

Hardy has hit that level once in his last 6 seasons, so he is unlikely to perform at that level also.

[oriole]

There is really no reason to project that Wieters would maintain an OPS of that level over a whole season. He did it for a month last year. But he hasn't done it for a full season in his 5 years in the majors. He came close in 2011.

Hardy has hit that level once in his last 6 seasons, so he is unlikely to perform at that level also.

Hardy is a bit of a long shot but I think Wieters has it in him to hit that well, especially if he is DHing a lot which I imagine him doing.

[waroriole]

Those seem pretty fair. A lot of opportunity for Manny to blow those projections out of the water. I think Davis is too high.

[El Gordo]

These projections always amuse me. Here are mine based on nothing but my gut. I bet the degree of error isn't any greater than these scientific projections:

Davis .860 OPS

Schoop .680 OPS

Flah'ty .700 OPS

Hardy .720 OPS

Machado .780 OPS

Wieters .760 OPS

Joseph .680 OPS

Snider .740 OPS

Pearce .790 OPS

Lough .730 OPS

Jones .800 OPS

Young .760 OPS

De Aza .740 OPS

Other .680 OPS

[MarylandAaron]

A team OPS of .723 to .731 represents a drop from last year's .734 OPS by a good margin to a little bit -- however it's worth noting that even a .723 OPS would have finished 4th in the AL behind Boston, Toronto and LA. So overall, I'm OK with it. (Especially if they're wrong and runs per game stays about the same this year )

Yeah, and considering we lost Cruz and Markakis, a little dropoff should be expected. But even with that, the offense still looks pretty decent on paper.

[25 Nuggets]

These projections always amuse me. Here are mine based on nothing but my gut. I bet the degree of error isn't any greater than these scientific projections:

Davis .860 OPS

Schoop .680 OPS

Flah'ty .700 OPS

Hardy .720 OPS

Machado .780 OPS

Wieters .760 OPS

Joseph .680 OPS

Snider .740 OPS

Pearce .790 OPS

Lough .730 OPS

Jones .800 OPS

Young .760 OPS

De Aza .740 OPS

Other .680 OPS

I'd be ecstatic with those numbers! That would be a strong offense.