The 2015 OPS Projections Thread

[Beef Supreme]

Dude, you are WAY off. David Lough would never clear waivers. 5 years of team control left. 4.1 WAR over the last 2 seasons despite being a 4th outfielder. I think he could put up a 4+ WAR season if he had the opportunity to play everyday.

Maybe you are right about not clearing. Still would like to know if he could refuse assignment.

4+ WAR, eh? You're a true believer, I take it. Forgive me for not being a believer.

[ArtVanDelay]

Maybe you are right about not clearing. Still would like to know if he could refuse assignment.

4+ WAR, eh? You're a true believer, I take it. Forgive me for not being a believer.

He'll put up more WAR than Markakis this year. He might double him.

[Beef Supreme]

Nope. Cruz was 4.7. Lough was 1.6.

Was going off of memory. Thought Cruz was more like 2.7. Fangraphs has 3.9 for last year. Seems like some outlets may use a slightly tweaked formula.

[Beef Supreme]

He'll put up more WAR than Markakis this year. He might double him.

Maybe so. And I'll believe it when I see it. From what I saw of him last year, I don't see a guy who could ever be an everyday, or nearly everyday, player.

[MurphDogg]

Maybe you are right about not clearing. Still would like to know if he could refuse assignment.

4+ WAR, eh? You're a true believer, I take it. Forgive me for not being a believer.

He could not refuse an assignment if he cleared waivers.

[Can_of_corn]

Maybe so. And I'll believe it when I see it. From what I saw of him last year, I don't see a guy who could ever be an everyday, or nearly everyday, player.

So you didn't see him in the second half?

[Beef Supreme]

So you didn't see him in the second half?

I saw him all season. But thanks for asking.

[Beef Supreme]

He could not refuse an assignment if he cleared waivers.

Thanks for that answer, murphdogg. Hey, if he performs like some of you expect, that would be great!

And if El Gordo's projections come true, there should be a lot of smiles amongst us.

[Can_of_corn]

I saw him all season. But thanks for asking.

You must have missed some games because his second half numbers are more then adequate.

Yes his first two months were bad but even Cruz took off a couple of months last year.

[Beef Supreme]

You must have missed some games because his second half numbers are more then adequate.

Yes his first two months were bad but even Cruz took off a couple of months last year.

Yes, Cruz did slump badly for a while.

I know of Lough's statistical improvement in the second half. My opinion is based on the entire season, not just the first few months.

I missed watching very few games. I missed watching very few games while the team was losing year-in, year-out as well.

[Beef Supreme]

He's provided starter value on reserve/sub levels of plate appearances. He has great defense and has 96 OPS+ in each of the least two seasons. At the very least there would be several teams that would be absolutely tickled for him to be their 4th OF making league minimum, with 3 additional years of control thereafter.

If my team were breaking camp with Xavier Avery, I would claim Lough in an instant. It's not that I think Lough has no value.

[BarclaySouthway]

I just punched the O's starting nine into an online "lineup optimizer" (with career OBA and SLG) for each player and it said we would score 735 runs, which would have been 3rd best in the AL last year. Despite the flaws in my method, I was reassured.

I think there's reason for optimism. There's pop from top to bottom and a lot of players still in their career sweet spots. JJ is the oldest at 32. Pearce will also be 32 in April, but it's a low-mileage 32. I think we can expect several guys to exceed their career averages (Schoop, Machado, Pearce, maybe Wieters and Jones). We look pretty good on paper.

[BohKnowsBmore]

I could definitely see the first part of this happening.

Well, his splits by month:

Sept/Oct 2012 - .237

May 2013 - .294

June 2013 - .322

July - .281

August - .246

Sept/Oct 2013 - .275

April 2014 - .172

May 2014 - .133

June 2014 - .296

July 2014 - .400

August 2014 - .333

Sept/Oct 2014 - .357

So he has been below .135 one month in his entire MLB career. I think the odds of him being well above that are pretty dang good.

[Beef Supreme]

Well, his splits by month:

Sept/Oct 2012 - .237

May 2013 - .294

June 2013 - .322

July - .281

August - .246

Sept/Oct 2013 - .275

April 2014 - .172

May 2014 - .133

June 2014 - .296

July 2014 - .400

August 2014 - .333

Sept/Oct 2014 - .357

So he has been below .135 one month in his entire MLB career. I think the odds of him being well above that are pretty dang good.

The odds are with you but I'd still betcha an imaginary dollar on him batting below .135 this April. Especially at 12:1

As for his good second half, the most important number is 64. That's the number of plate appearances Lough had. Little leaguers tally more PAs. If we're basing this year's starting lineup solely on the second half of last year, then I think you still want to start these guys, while Lough rides pine (PA, BA, OBA, SLG):

188 .288 .356 .524

216 .279 .340 .426

You know who they are...

There has been talk of Chris Davis needing to bunt and slap pitches to the opposite field. Lough, currently a pull hitter with modest power, could benefit from learning to slap the ball the other way even more than Davis, but we haven't seen that. Davis doesn't need to make the adjustment to keep an MLB job as long as he's hitting 30+ HRs. Lough had better learn to hit the other way if he wants to stay in the majors. Or he'd better learn to hit 30 home runs.

[Can_of_corn]

The odds are with you but I'd still betcha an imaginary dollar on him batting below .135 this April. Especially at 12:1

As for his good second half, the most important number is 64. That's the number of plate appearances Lough had. Little leaguers tally more PAs. If we're basing this year's starting lineup solely on the second half of last year, then I think you still want to start these guys, while Lough rides pine (PA, BA, OBA, SLG):

188 .288 .356 .524

216 .279 .340 .426

You know who they are...

There has been talk of Chris Davis needing to bunt and slap pitches to the opposite field. Lough, currently a pull hitter with modest power, could benefit from learning to slap the ball the other way even more than Davis, but we haven't seen that. Davis doesn't need to make the adjustment to keep an MLB job as long as he's hitting 30+ HRs. Lough had better learn to hit the other way if he wants to stay in the majors. Or he'd better learn to hit 30 home runs.

I'm confused.

I am looking at Lough's spray chart from last season and I am not seeing a huge issue with him pulling the ball.

http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=7215&position=OF&type=battedball&pid2=7215&ss1=2014&se1=2014&ss2=2014&se2=2014&cht1=hittype&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

In fact the distribution doesn't look too far off of what Nick did last year (Nick of course has many more data points).

http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=5930&position=OF&type=battedball&pid2=5930&ss1=2014&se1=2014&ss2=2014&se2=2014&cht1=battedball&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL

Davis' for reference

http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=9272&position=1B&type=battedball&pid2=9272&ss1=2014&se1=2014&ss2=2014&se2=2014&cht1=hittype&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=ALL