Bad Trade for Tampa - Smith needs TJ

[Redskins Rick]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/burch-smith-to-undergo-tommy-john-surgery.html

[Crazysilver03]

The thing that confuses me most about this is that they called him up and put him on the 60 Day DL to make room on the 40 man. Seems odd to waste service time on him.

[Can_of_corn]

Never understood why they sold low on Myers.

[Stotle]

Souza was the big piece from Tampa's perspective. Smith was known to be a high risk to have to undergo surgery at some point (my understanding), though I'm sure Tampa was hoping he'd dodge the bullet. He's missed a huge portion of 2014; don't think Tampa was thinking "this guy will make up for Myers leaving".

[Frobby]

Souza was the big piece from Tampa's perspective. Smith was known to be a high risk to have to undergo surgery at some point (my understanding), though I'm sure Tampa was hoping he'd dodge the bullet. He's missed a huge portion of 2014; don't think Tampa was thinking "this guy will make up for Myers leaving".

I'm interested in your take on Souza. Here's a guy who did nothing for 3-4 years in the minors, and suddenly exploded at age 23. How the heck does that happen?

[Stotle]

I'm interested in your take on Souza. Here's a guy who did nothing for 3-4 years in the minors, and suddenly exploded at age 23. How the heck does that happen?

I don't have a deep evaluative history with Souza, but to me the profile is potential above-average regular/likely second-division starter/4th outfielder. Good physicality/athleticism. Leverage-based power but he shows enough bat speed to catch-up to premium velocity. Has plate coverage issues, which could be exploited by sequencing and polished arms with command.

The file reads like a physically gifted player that logged enough reps in the low minors to "figure it out" from an approach standpoint such that he could capitalize on mistakes in his kill zone and work free passes as available. Once he was comfortable on that front he was able to maintain solid production at the upper-minors. He isn't a pure hitter given the holes in his coverage, and he isn't an instinctual defender, so his MLB value probably comes down to making the necessary adjustments to maintain a high enough contact rate that his power will play. There's enough pop that he'll keep pitchers honest and working the margins, which should result in a decent walk rate.

I think Tampa would be thrilled if he ends up a 15-20 home run, 15 stolen base two-hole hitter that gives you average defense in right field and gets on base at around a .340 clip. Maybe a 2.5 to 3 win player? Chance for randomness to push him up to 4 wins or down to the 1.5 to 2 win range?