Jump to content

Manny, Harper and Trout

Frobby

By Frobby
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 85
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Both Harper and Manny are commanding the strike zone this year. That's why their offense is looking so much better.

As to Harper, I really don't care if he's a five tool guy. His hit and power tools are ridiculous.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
Posted
Both Harper and Manny are commanding the strike zone this year. That's why their offense is looking so much better.

As to Harper, I really don't care if he's a five tool guy. His hit and power tools are ridiculous.

Astonishing actually. Especially so young.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
srock Veteran All-Star

srock

Posted
Posted
.

As to Harper, I really don't care if he's a five tool guy. His hit and power tools are ridiculous.

The whole 5 tool thing makes some sense scouting teenagers but MLB is a game of specialists. Gimme .800+ OPS and some solid defense and who cares what tools get them there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

Posted
Posted
As to Harper, I really don't care if he's a five tool guy. His hit and power tools are ridiculous.
The whole 5 tool thing makes some sense scouting teenagers but MLB is a game of specialists. Gimme .800+ OPS and some solid defense and who cares what tools get them there.

That's fine, but remember Harper was widely touted as a generational type talent in the line of Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle. Rhetoric rarely reserved (especially so widely) for anyone really. I gathered backwardsk's point (which I agree with) is that it is probably too early to read much into his baserunning and defensive metrics at this point in time. Between the injuries, moving around at different positions, sample size, maturity issues and the learning curve at the ML level he may very well still become an elite level defender and baserunner in addition to the hitting ability . That takes him to another level and is why that ability bears watching imo.

Personally I'd worry about throttling him back and preventing injuries more than anything. I'd probably have him steal sparingly since it provides such little marginal value and presents another injury risk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
  • Author
Posted
That's fine, but remember Harper was widely touted as a generational type talent in the line of Willie Mays and Mickey Mantle.

He's 22, has an OPS of 1.084 and is on pace to hit 55 homers. That's not enough to make him a generational talent if he keeps that up?

Anyway, I don't recall raves about his fielding in high school. He was a catcher and it took the Nats about one day to move him to OF to prolong his career.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted
He's 22, has an OPS of 1.084 and is on pace to hit 55 homers. That's not enough to make him a generational talent if he keeps that up?

Anyway, I don't recall raves about his fielding in high school. He was a catcher and it took the Nats about one day to move him to OF to expedite his trip to the majors.

Fixed it.

Why should the Nats worry about prolonging his career? They didn't want him spending three years in the minors learning how to catch.

We both also know that the best time to project someone's stat line is after they go on a mad hot streak and hit six homers in three games.

He's having a great year but he isn't going to OPS over 1K.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Fixed it.

Why should the Nats worry about prolonging his career? They didn't want him spending three years in the minors learning how to catch.

We both also know that the best time to project someone's stat line is after they go on a mad hot streak and hit six homers in three games.

He's having a great year but he isn't going to OPS over 1K.

I concede that projecting a guy based on 31 games after a crazy three day homer spree isn't really valid. But I do think it's valid to say the guy is 22 years old and look what he's doing already. If the question is, will Harper ever have a 1.000 OPS in a season, I'm betting yes. Don't just look at his HRs, look at his walk rate. If Harper makes the pitchers throw him strikes, he's going to be frightening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

Posted
Posted
I concede that projecting a guy based on 31 games after a crazy three day homer spree isn't really valid. But I do think it's valid to say the guy is 22 years old and look what he's doing already. If the question is, will Harper ever have a 1.000 OPS in a season, I'm betting yes. Don't just look at his HRs, look at his walk rate. If Harper makes the pitchers throw him strikes, he's going to be frightening.

If he stays healthy he has a good 14 years to have a career year. Who knows what kind of offensive environment we will have in 2025?

Yes his combination of power and plate discipline is very impressive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

Posted
Posted
He's 22, has an OPS of 1.084 and is on pace to hit 55 homers. That's not enough to make him a generational talent if he keeps that up?

Anyway, I don't recall raves about his fielding in high school. He was a catcher and it took the Nats about one day to move him to OF to prolong his career.

A 5 tool player compared to Willie Mays likely has high upside on defense. If Willie Mays wasn't an elite fielder and baserunner he probably wouldn't be considered by many to be the best player that ever played the game. This isn't too hard to figure out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
CA-ORIOLE Hangout Grand Counsel

CA-ORIOLE

Posted
Posted
As Frobby said, Harper wasn't considered an elite defensive player as an amateur or coming up through the minors. It shouldn't suprise anyone that he won't be a 50 base stealer or a gold glove OF. Some people consider Babe Ruth the best to ever play the game. Like Harper, he get a strong arm and even some speed. I think he was a generational talent.

This is pretty much what I'm saying and that metrics/performance with respect to defense and baserunning (for a variety of reasons) may not mean that much at this point given his physical tools. Being in the top 5 or 10 players that ever played the game is what makes you a generational talent. I suppose different people may have different opinions about what generational talent means. You probably could not even argue between Babe Ruth and Willie Mays even Mays wasn't a great defender and baserunner. He did not have to be Babe Ruth as a hitter to put him in the conversation.

edit: That said, DRS (rate) has Harper at +3/+14/+10 in LF/CF/RF so far. Those are still pretty good numbers. I guess UZR has him worse at the corners.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

Posted
Posted

I concede that projecting a guy based on 31 games after a crazy three day homer spree isn't really valid. But I do think it's valid to say the guy is 22 years old and look what he's doing already. If the question is, will Harper ever have a 1.000 OPS in a season, I'm betting yes. Don't just look at his HRs, look at his walk rate. If Harper makes the pitchers throw him strikes, he's going to be frightening.

I don't see why not, we do it when a player is under producing in 31 games. Steve Pearce is toast and Davis is bound to have 285 K's, De Aza should be DFA'd, etc.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

Posted
Posted

I would think a generational talent would be someone in the top 5 of his generation not someone in the top 5 in baseball history. Trout us definitely a generational talent if he stays healthy as is Stanton. Manny and Harper; the jury is still out IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing


  • Posts

    • Can_of_corn
      Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

      By Can_of_corn · Posted

      Good point, no other metropolitan area has more than one team.
    • Roll Tide
      Who will pay Burnes $400M this offseason?

      By Roll Tide · Posted

      Could it be that they allowed the Gnats to reside within 30 minutes of their home. Effectively cutting their market in half? 
    • Yossarian
      Anyone tried the Immaculate Grid game?

      By Yossarian · Posted

      Got my all-time low rarity score on today's game - 6.
    • Baseball fandom
      Elias: Hyde will be back

      By Baseball fandom · Posted

      Lol.  I give up. Next. 
    • Baseball fandom
      Elias: Hyde will be back

      By Baseball fandom · Posted

      41 freaking years and here's this guy with the name pickles telling me I should be happy with 91 wins and getting owned in the playoffs again. 😂 😂 I saw a team that looked terrible the second half and probably didn't even deserve that spot the way they were playing .
    • Baseball fandom
      Elias: Hyde will be back

      By Baseball fandom · Posted

      Lol. Here's the funny they know more then you know. Typical Oriole fan who's happy with getting punched in the mouth. 
    • e16bball
      Walltimore

      By e16bball · Posted

      I don’t like the wall. I think it’s affecting our hitters. I’ve mentioned before that I think it has totally warped Mountcastle into something he was never really meant to be. The guy came up as a pull-heavy HR hitter, and in his first season-plus (725 PAs), he puts up 38 HRs and a 116 wRC+. Since then, the wRC+ is down to 110, and his approach has totally changed, with his pull numbers plummeting (down from 39% in 2021 to less than 28% this year). He still hits the ball hard, but constantly underachieves his batted ball data — probably because he’s trying to avoid the pull field and hitting balls to the deepest parts of pretty much every other park. Will the same thing happen to Mayo? Maybe he has more pure power, but it’s always going to be a challenge for a RH slugger to survive with that wall. So much harder to do damage.   Beyond that, I think it’s also creating a serious risk of changing our LH hitters’ approaches too. These guys (Henderson, Holliday, Cowser, 2/3 of Adley) have come up with a reputation for being able to drive the ball to all fields. But how long does that continue when they just can’t hit it out to the opposite field? Our LH hitters had a combined 44 wRC+ at OPACY, and only one HR. They had the 3rd most balls hit to LF at home by LHHs, but the lowest wRC+ of any team on those balls (for the second straight year). The Royals, ironically enough, were the only team that was lower than a 70 wRC+ — that’s how much worse our lefties fared going oppo (at OPACY) than everyone else’s. By player: Gunnar Henderson: 112 wRC+ / .160 ISO (51 PAs) Adley Rutschman: 10 wRC+ / .026 ISO (38 PAs) Anthony Santander: 14 wRC+ / .095 ISO (43 PAs) Colton Cowser: 58 wRC+ / .057 ISO (36 PAs) Ryan O’Hearn: 47 wRC+ / .091 ISO (55 PAs) Cedric Mullins: 23 wRC+ / .100 ISO (41 PAs) Jackson Holliday: -72 wRC+ / .000 ISO (16 PAs)   On the road, they had a combined 126 wRC+ (with 9 HRs) going to left field, so it’s not like they’re bad at it. It’s just Death Valley out there in LF for them at OPACY.  How long will it be until these LH guys just start going full pull-happy? Essentially, the opposite of what’s happened with Mountcastle. When (a) your team’s philosophy is to focus on doing damage and (b) you can’t DO damage to the opposite field — the rational endpoint is just to try to pull everything. I don’t think that’s a good outcome. I think it makes them much worse hitters in the other 81 games, and I think it’s a terrible waste of a bunch of really talented hitters with all-field abilities.

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...