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Fangraphs: Prospect Valuation

weams

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/touki-toussaint-and-prospect-valuation/

On late Saturday night, the Diamondbacks and Braves made a trade, but while players were sent in both directions, this was really more of just a sale. Sure, the Braves did give up a player - replacement-level utility guy Phil Gosselin, currently on the DL - in the swap, but they traded Gosselin for a legitimate prospect and a Major League pitcher, which only makes sense when you add in the financial aspects of the deal. In taking on the remainder of Bronson Arroyo's salary - roughly $10 million, including the buy-out of his 2016 option - the Braves essentially bought pitching prospect Touki Toussaint from the Diamondbacks for that $10 million figure.

While this isn't an entirely new type of trade - the Dodgers essentially did this same thing a few months ago when they bought a draft pick from the Orioles by taking Ryan Webb off their hands - it's still a little unusual to see a team make a trade that can so clearly be broken down as a legitimate asset for just straight cash. And in this case, it's made even more unusual because the team selling the prospect is in rebuilding mode, so we have an organization focused on the future selling an asset with future value in exchange for short-term financial relief.

Orioles Related ;)

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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And as previously mentioned, the Dodgers paid $2.7 million back in April to buy the 74th pick in the most recent draft; that pick comes with a slot value of $827,000, so by the time the Dodgers sign Josh Sborz, they'll have paid roughly $3.5 million to acquire a prospect who isn't anywhere near Toussaint; Kiley has profiled him as a “future reliever”. With restricted spending, rich teams are now driving up the values of prospects, and while Creagh and DiMiceli did a very good job with their information, I think their valuations are roughly half of what the market has been paying for talent.

So I'd say Toussaint is probably worth something closer to $20 million than $10 million, at least if we believe that he’s still roughly a back-end Top 100 pitching prospect. But this trade should perhaps cause us to reconsider how strongly we are convinced of that stance.

Still Orioles.

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Three Run Homer Hangout Grand Counsel

Three Run Homer

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The commissioner should have blocked this trade. It is not in the best interests of baseball for teams to be able to mortgage their future for cash.

If Arizona is so cash poor that they need to trade a high-ceiling prospect for cash then their owners should be forced to sell the team.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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The commissioner should have blocked this trade. It is not in the best interests of baseball for teams to be able to mortgage their future for cash.

If Arizona is so cash poor that they need to trade a high-ceiling prospect for cash then their owners should be forced to sell the team.

Would you feel that way if they were freeing up space to bring on another contract in July? Stewart stated part of the motivation was that they loaded up on college pitching in the draft and Toussaint simply was behind a lot of arms at this point.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Would you feel that way if they were freeing up space to bring on another contract in July? Stewart stated part of the motivation was that they loaded up on college pitching in the draft and Toussaint simply was behind a lot of arms at this point.

Do you believe him?

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Do you believe him?

I believe Toussaint wasn't to be a contributor until 2018. I don't think that's a reason to make this specific deal but it's a reason for Toussaint to be available, considering Bradley/Blair/Shipley at Double-A and above, as well. To me, need for immediate cash points towards a trade that will be bringing on money. I'm not sure what's going on if this was really the DBacks desperately needing to unload a contract.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I believe Toussaint wasn't to be a contributor until 2018. I don't think that's a reason to make this specific deal but it's a reason for Toussaint to be available, considering Bradley/Blair/Shipley at Double-A and above, as well. To me, need for immediate cash points towards a trade that will be bringing on money. I'm not sure what's going on if this was really the DBacks desperately needing to unload a contract.

Ok. Thanks for your evaluation. We will have to see how it plays out. I believe there is no trade myself.

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Stotle Hangout Grand Counsel

Stotle

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Ok. Thanks for your evaluation. We will have to see how it plays out. I believe there is no trade myself.

I don't know that there is a trade -- I'm just saying this deal at this time only makes sense if it is setting something up. Otherwise, it seems a little silly even if "value" is approximate on either side.

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Redskins Rick Hangout Grand Counsel

Redskins Rick

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The Diamondbacks paid dearly for their 2001 WS.

For example, just last season:

Bernard Gilkey last played for the Diamondbacks on June 21, 2000, completing his 161-game stay with a pinch-hit single to left field.

Fourteen years later, the club is still showing its gratitude with an annual paycheck to the Missouri resident's bank account worth nearly $1 million.

They spent heavy and 69.9 million in major league signings and another almost 9 million in international pool signing in the off-season and has been trading off contracts like crazy.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/offseason-in-review-arizona-diamondbacks-8.html

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