Would you consider putting Britton in the rotation at the start of 2016?

[srock]

He averaged ~93 with his sinker as a starter.

And it got hit harder then it does at 96-97

[Can_of_corn]

And it got hit harder then it does at 96-97

Just helping with the facts.

Velocity wasn't his problem.

[srock]

I think that him trying to reincorporate multiple pitches into his repertoire could indeed adversely impact his sinker command.

Well that all depends. He already throws a slider, just not very often.

A show me 4 seamer he can use up high isn't much different then a sinker, just a change in grip.

Changeup? Yeah, that one might be done forever. Slider is his off speed.

Its still going to sinker the vast majority of the time, just a little less vast then when closing.

Actually his best 2nd pitch might just be changing speeds on the sinker. Throw it 92 ish most of the time and crank it up to 96-97 sometimes.

[Can_of_corn]

Well that all depends. He already throws a slider, just not very often.

A show me 4 seamer he can use up high isn't much different then a sinker, just a change in grip.

Changeup? Yeah, that one might be done forever. Slider is his off speed.

Its still going to sinker the vast majority of the time, just a little less vast then when closing.

Actually his best 2nd pitch might just be changing speeds on the sinker. Throw it 92 ish most of the time and crank it up to 96-97 sometimes.

Did you forget about the curve ball?

[Can_of_corn]

I kinda feel silly for asking but everyone has read this right?

http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2015/7/14/8955499/baltimore-orioles-zach-britton-pitching-command

[Tony-OH]

Anyone see a pattern?

                                                                                                                        I          Split   G  PA  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB  SO SO/W   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+    Pitch  1-25 155 709 648 57 158 26  2 12  0  0 53 140 2.64 .244 .304 .346 .649 224  27   3  4  1   0   6  .294    89    Pitch 26-50  56 322 291 37  76 13  0  6  0  0 26  59 2.27 .261 .322 .368 .690 107  12   1  2  2   4   3  .307   100    Pitch 51-75  44 270 232 32  58 14  0  4  0  2 32  47 1.47 .250 .341 .362 .703  84   7   1  3  2   0   3  .295   105   Pitch 76-100  43 218 181 34  53  9  2  5  0  0 30  21 0.70 .293 .386 .448 .834  81   7   0  3  4   3   2  .302   142     Pitch 101+  13  26  25  0   5  0  0  0  0  0  1   4 4.00 .200 .231 .200 .431   5   0   0  0  0   0   0  .238    26

                                                                                                                          I         Split   G   PA  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR SB CS  BB  SO SO/W   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+    as Starter  46 1101 968 153 270 50  4 22 10  6 111 165 1.49 .279 .353 .407 .760 394  35   4  9  9   7  13  .314   121   as Reliever 109  444 409  24  80 12  0  5  2  0  31 106 3.42 .196 .254 .262 .516 107  18   1  3  0   0   1  .252    50

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 7/16/2015.

[mdbdotcom]

Let's say he's moved to the rotation and meets the optimistic projections and becomes a 4- or 5-win starter. He'll ask for and receive very large salary increases in arbitration and as a free agent, and deserve them more than had he stayed a reliever. And the O's will not be any more likely to pay a starter $15-$20M a year than a reliever $8M, 10M, 12M or whatever. Whatever role he's in, if he succeeds he'll outgrow the Orioles' likely budget.

He has three more years of arbitration remaining and is already making $3.5 million. He has two years of usefulness before he becomes too expensive for the O's (and some other teams) as a reliever. To get the most for him, they would have to trade him after next season, before his salary is too high. As a starter, they could probably keep him until he reaches free agency and then take a comp pick.

[Redskins Rick]

Hard to compare Britton the starter, with Britton the reliever 2014 and now, since he finally got healthy and develop that nasty pitch of his.

That said, personally, I don't want him, anywhere, except where he is right now.

Again, just my own opinion.

[Tony-OH]

Hard to compare Britton the starter, with Britton the reliever 2014 and now, since he finally got healthy and develop that nasty pitch of his.

That said, personally, I don't want him, anywhere, except where he is right now.

Again, just my own opinion.

He didn't suddenly develop that "nasty pitch of his". He always had the good sinker, it's just that sinker becomes a real weapon in short one inning stints. Most guys stuff play up in short stints. It's the reason why I still think Tim Berry will be a major league pitcher, but it will be in relief.

[Phantom]

Anyone see a pattern?

                                                                                                                        I          Split   G  PA  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB  SO SO/W   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+    Pitch  1-25 155 709 648 57 158 26  2 12  0  0 53 140 2.64 .244 .304 .346 .649 224  27   3  4  1   0   6  .294    89    Pitch 26-50  56 322 291 37  76 13  0  6  0  0 26  59 2.27 .261 .322 .368 .690 107  12   1  2  2   4   3  .307   100    Pitch 51-75  44 270 232 32  58 14  0  4  0  2 32  47 1.47 .250 .341 .362 .703  84   7   1  3  2   0   3  .295   105   Pitch 76-100  43 218 181 34  53  9  2  5  0  0 30  21 0.70 .293 .386 .448 .834  81   7   0  3  4   3   2  .302   142     Pitch 101+  13  26  25  0   5  0  0  0  0  0  1   4 4.00 .200 .231 .200 .431   5   0   0  0  0   0   0  .238    26

                                                                                                                          I         Split   G   PA  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR SB CS  BB  SO SO/W   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+    as Starter  46 1101 968 153 270 50  4 22 10  6 111 165 1.49 .279 .353 .407 .760 394  35   4  9  9   7  13  .314   121   as Reliever 109  444 409  24  80 12  0  5  2  0  31 106 3.42 .196 .254 .262 .516 107  18   1  3  0   0   1  .252    50

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 7/16/2015.

Yes, clearly the key to success is to get him to throw 100 pitches.

And yeah, I am hesitant to draw lasting conclusions off of context-less small sample size data taken from different years of his development.

No one is sure he will be a good starter. I just don't see much risk in trying.

[Redskins Rick]

He didn't suddenly develop that "nasty pitch of his". He always had the good sinker, it's just that sinker becomes a real weapon in short one inning stints. Most guys stuff play up in short stints. It's the reason why I still think Tim Berry will be a major league pitcher, but it will be in relief.

Okay True, he had the pitch, but he was very inconsistent with it.

[DrungoHazewood]

He has three more years of arbitration remaining and is already making $3.5 million. He has two years of usefulness before he becomes too expensive for the O's (and some other teams) as a reliever. To get the most for him, they would have to trade him after next season, before his salary is too high. As a starter, they could probably keep him until he reaches free agency and then take a comp pick.

Assuming that he's actually any good as a starter. I guess if you're being cynical/pessimistic you could assume 2016 is a rebuilding year. Try Britton as a starter and your Plan B if he doesn't work out is that he goes back to being a reliever but you keep his salary for '17 in check with a year of 25 starts, 144 innings and a 4.78 ERA. Maybe that was Paul Richards' plan for Goose Gossage in '76, he was just years ahead of his time.

[Tony-OH]

Yes, clearly the key to success is to get him to throw 100 pitches.

And yeah, I am hesitant to draw lasting conclusions off of context-less small sample size data taken from different years of his development.

No one is sure he will be a good starter. I just don't see much risk in trying.

Be hesitant all you want, but his repertoire and the statistical evidence that shows he struggles the longer he's in games is why the Orioles converted him to closer and why they will keep him there.

You can count on one hand probably the amount of closers who successfully converted back to a starter and even less when it comes to a pitcher who primarily uses one pitch. Most of them I'd bet were converted to closers due to necessity, not because they had struggled as as a starter.

Injury concerns are a very big risk in moving a guy from relief to a starter's role as well. Asking a guy to start throwing more pitches with different grips is an injury risk. So unless you think Britton can successfully command his 94-97 MPH sinker for 100 pitches, you are taking on an injury risk with any kind of conversion attempt.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yes, clearly the key to success is to get him to throw 100 pitches.

And yeah, I am hesitant to draw lasting conclusions off of context-less small sample size data taken from different years of his development.

No one is sure he will be a good starter. I just don't see much risk in trying.

While I agree with Tony's conclusion, this dataset is biased because the 1-25 data includes all of his one-inning stints as a reliever. Take that out and he probably has a very typical times-through-the-order penalty.

[Can_of_corn]

Be hesitant all you want, but his repertoire and the statistical evidence that shows he struggles the longer he's in games is why the Orioles converted him to closer and why they will keep him there.

You can count on one hand probably the amount of closers who successfully converted back to a starter and even less when it comes to a pitcher who primarily uses one pitch. Most of them I'd bet were converted to closers due to necessity, not because they had struggled as as a starter.

Injury concerns are a very big risk in moving a guy from relief to a starter's role as well. Asking a guy to start throwing more pitches with different grips is an injury risk. So unless you think Britton can successfully command his 94-97 MPH sinker for 100 pitches, you are taking on an injury risk with any kind of conversion attempt.

Particularly with Britton's history of shoulder issues.