MLB 2008 Predictions

[Migrant Redbird]

I usually don't like to get into predictions, because there are just too many unanticipated factors which tend to blow the predictions out the window.

I notice that a few prognosticators picked Colby Rasmus for the NL ROY. I doubt very much if that's going to happen. He's never played ball above AA and there is a logjam of talented young outfielders competing for playing time in St. Louis. The Cards will be inclined to give Colby a real long internship at Memphis unless (1) he gets off to an incredible start at Memphis and (2) the deep outfield in front of him springs a bunch of leaks.

The everyday starting outfield for the Cardinals is going to look like this at the beginning of the season:

LF - Chris Duncan is an established starter, although La Russa will probably sit him out quite a bit against the tougher left handed starters. Chris has a career OPS now of .884 and it would be significantly above .900 if not for that "sports hernia" that slashed his OPS last August to under .600. If Duncan is used primarily in a platoon role and doesn't get injured, I think he's going to have a monster year. He needs to learn to hit southpaws and become an everyday player, though.

CF - The job is Ankiel's to lose. Rick hit 43 home runs last season between Memphis and St. Louis and had a torrid spring before he cooled off a bit the last couple of games, but he still finished with a .380 BA and second to Pujols in home runs and RBIs.

RF -- Skip Schumaker will be the starting right fielder. He hit .333 last season and .354 this spring, though without a lot of power, as he finally seemed to mature as a major league player. Skip will probably alternate as the lead off hitter with Rule 5 pick, Brian Barton.

All of those are left handed hitters. La Russa loves his platoon differentials, so look for Ludwick and Barton to replace Duncan and Schumaker most of the time when the Cardinals face a left handed starter. Ankiel actually has a reverse platoon split -- he hit better against southpaws both at Memphis and in St. Louis -- but La Russa still wouldn't start him against left handers last season. I suspect that Tony figures it's an artifact of the relatively small sample size, but it'll still probably cause him to platoon Duncan and Schumaker instead -- to get the right handed Ludwick and Barton into his lineup.

I'm not alone in comparing Brian Barton to the young Lou Brock. Barton hit .341 this spring, with 2 home runs and 3 triples. He's an exciting young player to watch, but doesn't have a terribly strong arm and is a little raw defensively. He's coming off knee surgery, but the Indians may sorely regret leaving him unprotected. Unfortunately, he's going to have to fight for playing time as the 5th outfielder. I'm afraid that may hinder his development; he could probably benefit greatly from more regular playing time at the AAA level.

Ryan Ludwick was a solid RH bat off the bench last year and he's probably the best defensive outfielder on the team after Schumaker. He posted an .818 OPS with 14 home runs in 303 at bats last season. If one of the left handers falters, Ludwick is capable of forcing his way into the starting lineup.

Other outfielders who made strong bids to stick with the team were Joe Mather and Amauri Marti. Rasmus will have to out perform them in Memphis to win a promotion if there's an opening in the St. Louis outfield. Mather has the advantage in that he can play the corner infield positions as well (he was a shortstop when drafted)..

I think that La Russa is being stupid playing Rick in center (which he prefers) instead of right (where his arm is a terrific asset), but it looks like a done decision. It makes no sense to me to play Rick in center if the promotion of Rasmus will eventually force him back to move back to right, especially since Schumaker is easily the best at all the outfield positions. I suspect that Tony's doing this because he doesn't want to be moving Rick back and forth and he doesn't think that Barton is a good enough outfielder to play center.

I expect Pujols to put up another banner year. His elbow is going to hurt, but he will grit it out and might even postpone the TJ surgery until his career is over. Albert was really tattooing the ball this spring and making strong throws as though there was nothing wrong with his elbow at all.

The middle infield is pathetically weak, but it looks a little better now than it did before spring training opened. La Russa has been praising the defense of Izturis all spring based on watching him in practice and it really seemed to come together the last week or two. I still don't expect Izturis to hit much, but his bat showed some signs of life this spring, and Kennedy seems to have bounced back from an injury-hobbled season last year. The range of Izturis may compensate for the very limited range of Glaus at third.

I'm concerned about Glaus remaining healthy. He's averaged 36 home runs per 162 games, but he's played fewer than 120 games in 3 of the last 5 years. ESPN' fantasy projections have each of the Cardinals 2-3-4-5 hitters hitting 30 or more home runs! That's almost as many as the entire team hit last year.

  BATTER           POS    AB   HR   RBI   BA    OBP   SLG  OPSChris Duncan    L   LF   491   31    86  .271  .358  .517  .875Albert Pujols   R   1B   508   37   103  .331  .432  .614 1.046Rick Ankiel     L   CF   481   33   100  .275  .335  .543  .878Troy Glaus      R   3B   446   31    77  .269  .372  .531  .903

They're also projecting 23 home runs and 83 RBIs from Ludwick off the bench! In isolation, each of the projections appears reasonable, even conservative, but it's very unlikely that all of them will be achieved.

If he's healthy, Yadier Molina should finally win the GG this year. He should have had it last season, but a fractured finger kept him out of the lineup several weeks and he only played 111 games. His throwing arm is in a class with Johnny Bench and Pudge Rodriguez and he's probably better than either of them when it comes to working the pickoff of runners off first with Pujols. (7 picks in 2006)

The Cardinals could surprise a lot of people if the "kids" can deliver the way I'm expecting them to do. The addition of Lohse will go a long way towards giving the Cardinals a halfway respectable rotation. The rotation will be filled out by three converted relievers: Braden Looper, Todd Wellemeyer, and Brad Thompson. To quote HOF writer, Rick Hummel: "The Cardinals were 21-7 in games started last season by Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer and 57-77 when the two converted relievers didn't start." That's a rather pathetic piece of writing by Hummel, who ignores the relative run support and the poor peripherals posted by these two, not to mention their difficulties in lasting 6 innings.

That being said, there are too many things which have to go right before the Cards can compete with the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds. I'm confident that some of those will go right, but experience says we need to count on too many.

[waroriole]

AL East:

Red Sox

MFY's

Jays

O's

Rays

AL Central:

Tigers

Indians

Twins

White Sox

Royals

AL West:

Mariners

Angels

A's

Rangers

NL East:

Braves

Phillies

Mets

Marlins

Nationals

NL Central:

Brewers

Cubs

Cardinals

Reds

Astros

Pirates

NL West:

Diamondbacks

Rockies

Dodgers

Padres

Giants

Wild Card: AL: Indians NL: Rockies

ALCS: Tigers over Indians

NLCS: Braves over Diamondbacks

World Series: Tigers over Braves

[whatdoiget000]

AL east

BOS

TOR*

NYY

TBR

BAL

AL central

DET

CLE

CHW

MIN

KCR

AL west

SEA

LAA

OAK

TEX

NL east

PHI

NYM

ATL

WSH

FLA

NL central

CIN

CHC

STL

MIL

HOU

PIT

NL west

ARI

LAD*

COL

SDP

SFG

Div:

Sea over BOS

DET over TOR

LAD over PHI

ARI over CIN

ALCS

DET over SEA

NLCS

ARI over LAD

WS

DET over ARI

AL MVP

Miguel Cabrera

NL MVP

David Wright

AL CY

Erik Bedard

NL CY

Johan Santana

AL ROY

Evan Longoria

NL ROY

Jay Bruce

[BaltimoreTerp]

My post is edited because...well...apparently I'm an idiot (not only did I put in Jones for ROY, but I omitted San Francisco! )

[mweb]

AL:

East:

Sox(94)

Yanks(90)

Blue Jays(87)

Rays(77)

O's(63)

Central:

Indians(90)

Tigers(88)

White Sox(78)

Twins(71)

Royals(71)

West:

Mariners(84)

Angels(83)

Rangers(78)

A's(72)

ROY: Buchholz

CY: Bedard

MVP: Arod

NL:

East:

Mets(96)

Braves(85)

Phillies(84)

Nats(72)

Marlins(71)

Central:

Cubs(92)

Brewers(90)

Reds(84)

Astros(70)

Cards(68)

Pirates(66)

West:

Dodgers(89)

DBacks(88)

Rockies(86)

Padres(83)

Giants(62)

ROY: Cueto

CY: Santana

MVP: Wright

WS: Red Sox over Mets

[osfan99]

AL

East

Boston

NYY*

Tor

TB

Bal

Central

Det

Cle

Chi

Min

KC

West

Sea

LAA

Oak

Tex

NL

East

NYM

Phi

Atl

Fla

Was

Central

ChiC

StL

Mil

Pit

Hou

Cin

West

Ari

Col*

LAD

SD

SF

Boston vs. NYM in World Series - Boston wins 4-3

(Baltimore wins 67 games)

[Pedro Cerrano]

Bump.

These are always fun to read... :-)

[PaulBako]

Bump.

These are always fun to read... :-)

Thanks for bringing the thread back.

[backwardsk]

Nice bump. As you can see, I was spot on with the AL East.