Early Guesstimate on next year's O's team.

[waroriole]

PA should be fired. You can't get blood from a turnip. There are MOO bats to be had but they cost money and according to Weams we are cutting back on the payroll.

Then you take another path. You don't pay a RP 7M when you're poor. You also don't pay Parra that much or Matusz.

[El Gordo]

Then you take another path. You don't pay a RP 7M when you're poor. You also don't pay Parra that much or Matusz.

What RP is being paid 7M?

[waroriole]

What RP is being paid 7M?

O'Day....

[Three Run Homer]

Parra has played like a replacement level player for the O's. He's a better player than that, but he's not worth anywhere near $10 million a year. If someone else is willing to pay him that kind of money, let them. Better to pay $15-20 million a year for a really good player like Alex Gordon and save money somewhere else, such as...

...Darren O'Day. I love Darren O'Day, but it's not cost-effective to pay him $7 million a year or more when the O's have a lot of good bullpen options in the high minors.

[Creamsicle]

...I love Darren O'Day, but it's not cost-effective to pay him $7 million a year or more when the O's have a lot of good bullpen options in the high minors.

I love DOD but agree w this.

[wildcard]

From MLBTR:

Looking at recent corner outfield signings, there?s an interesting gulf between players who profiled as solid regulars and those who were seen more as platoon options. (Check this list of outfielders who landed guarantees of between $15MM and $75MM.) Players coming off of good years who were added as regular players have tended to score three- or four-year deals with AAVs in the $10MM to $15MM range. Some potentially useful comps include Melky Cabrera (three years, $42MM), Nick Markakis (four years, $44MM), Shane Victorino (three years, $39MM), and Angel Pagan (four years, $40MM) ? each of whom was older than Parra when they signed their deals. (Markakis, in particular, stands out as a player whose glove was valued by scouts despite defensive metrics painting a more negative picture.)

Parra's current numbers for the year:

523 AB, 79 R, 14 HR, 46 RBI, 11 SB, 285/322/449/771

Pretty good numbers.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/08/free-agent-stock-watch-gerardo-parra.html

[Ruzious]

Gotta figure that they'll sign Parra - though I wouldn't. I think he'll be considerably cheaper than Wildcard has him - I'll guess 3/16.

I think both Matusz and O'Day will be gone - guessing the only way O'Day stays is if Britton's not the closer next year.

Wieters - gone. Pearce - stays.

Chen - gone.

Davis - gone.

Sign Dexter Fowler for 4/40.

Sign Mike Leak for 3/25.

[Stotle]

From MLBTR:

Parra's current numbers for the year:

523 AB, 79 R, 14 HR, 46 RBI, 11 SB, 285/322/449/771

Pretty good numbers.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/08/free-agent-stock-watch-gerardo-parra.html

The rough math works like this though:

1. Production by Parra over replacement player based on recent career: if you set aside a wild defensive WAR score in 2013 and BABIP-fueled 1st half in 2015, negligible

2. Salary paid to Parra over replacement-level player ($8 - 9.5 MM depending on whether or not you need a veteran)

Even if you don't like the idea of giving Jason Heyward $25 MM a year, you should be willing to if:

1. You're willing to give Parra $10 MM per AND

2. You'd be willing to pay Heyward $17 MM or so a year (debiting the wasted money you're willing to spend on Parra)

Obviously, the larger question re: Heyward is whether or not the total investment prevents you from meeting budget. But if you want to essentially flush $8 - 9.5 MM you are better off, in my opinion, doing it as part of a deal that will land you a 3-5 win player in his mid- to late-20s.

[El Gordo]

O'Day....

Not this year. I was unaware we had signed an extension already.

[wildcard]

Gotta figure that they'll sign Parra - though I wouldn't. I think he'll be considerably cheaper than Wildcard has him - I'll guess 3/16.

I think both Matusz and O'Day will be gone - guessing the only way O'Day stays is if Britton's not the closer next year.

Wieters - gone. Pearce - stays.

Chen - gone.

Davis - gone.

Sign Dexter Fowler for 4/40.

Sign Mike Leak for 3/25.

My thinking on O'Day is that the O's will not know if he will be the closer or not until Chen signs. That is probably late December-late January the way Boras plays things.

If Chen is gone, Britton in is the rotation and O'Day is the closer. By the time Chen is signed with someone else its probably too late to get another decent starter. I would sign O'Day to insure that the O's have decent late inning pitching with some experience.

[El Gordo]

My thinking O'Day is that the O's will not know if he will be the closer or not until Chen signs. Thar is probably late December-late January the way Boras plays things.

If Chen is gone, Britton in is the rotation and O'Day is the closer. By the time Chen is signed with someone else its probably too late to get another decent starter. I would sign O'Day to insure that the O's have decent late inning pitching with some experience.

Or you can trade Britton for a much needed bat and let O'Day close. 7 M for that wouldn't be too much.

[wildcard]

The rough math works like this though:

1. Production by Parra over replacement player based on recent career: if you set aside a wild defensive WAR score in 2013 and BABIP-fueled 1st half in 2015, negligible

2. Salary paid to Parra over replacement-level player ($8 - 9.5 MM depending on whether or not you need a veteran)

Even if you don't like the idea of giving Jason Heyward $25 MM a year, you should be willing to if:

1. You're willing to give Parra $10 MM per AND

2. You'd be willing to pay Heyward $17 MM or so a year (debiting the wasted money you're willing to spend on Parra)

Obviously, the larger question re: Heyward is whether or not the total investment prevents you from meeting budget. But if you want to essentially flush $8 - 9.5 MM you are better off, in my opinion, doing it as part of a deal that will land you a 3-5 win player in his mid- to late-20s.

30m for Parra vs 170m+ for Heyward is a huge difference. Especially if the O's plan to extend Manny for ten years.

[Ruzious]

30m for Parra vs 170m+ for Heyward is a huge difference. Especially if the O's plan to extend Manny for ten years.

I'd much rather use the Parra money on Span - and pray he stays healthy. But I agree that Heyward isn't a realistic option for the O's.

If I was honest, I'd try to make this trade: Adam Jones to Texas for Nomar Mazarra and Lewis Brinson and one of their SS prospects. I'd start Mazarra in RF and hope Brinson is ready to start in CF in 2017. In the meantime, I'd have Span playing CF - until Brinson's ready. I'd have Fowler in LF.

[Stotle]

30m for Parra vs 170m+ for Heyward is a huge difference. Especially if the O's plan to extend Manny for ten years.

You are conflating two different issues. The year-to-year budget and risk associated with long term contracts.

Let's assume 7 years for Heyward. The question you ask is in answering the long-term risk question is which is a better investment:

1. Heyward 7/$175MM; or

2. Parra at 3/$30 MM followed by another replacement-level player at equivalent contract for the next four years?

I have not run the numbers to figure out likelihood of "dead money", but I am fairly confident you are more likely to be eating dead money on the Parra/replacement-level player over those seven years.

Now, if you are using Parra as a bridge to a specific long-term solution (usually this would be an in-house option) then maybe that makes more sense than Heyward. But it still doesn't make more sense than a much cheaper replacement-level player on a two or three year deal.

[Stotle]

I'd much rather use the Parra money on Span - and pray he stays healthy. But I agree that Heyward isn't a realistic option for the O's.

If I was honest, I'd try to make this trade: Adam Jones to Texas for Nomar Mazarra and Lewis Brinson and one of their SS prospects. I'd start Mazarra in RF and hope Brinson is ready to start in CF in 2017. In the meantime, I'd have Span playing CF - until Brinson's ready. I'd have Fowler in LF.

I don't really know, but my guess is Texas isn't willing to trade Mazara. Brinson more of an open question, especially if Jones is coming back. But I think they probably have to come through on their plan to move Choo in order to make any of it work.