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neveradoubt

By neveradoubt
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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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How do the Orioles win by taking on $18M in additional future year commitments while signing on to play a 32-year-old corner outfielder who only got to two wins at 31 by accumulating about 700 PAs? I like Nick as much as the next O's fan, but if his BABIP regresses to his career mark and he stays powerless he'll hit .270 and put up a sub-.700 OPS.

Not if the next fan happens to be Frobby.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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How do the Orioles win by taking on $18M in additional future year commitments while signing on to play a 32-year-old corner outfielder who only got to two wins at 31 by accumulating about 700 PAs? I like Nick as much as the next O's fan, but if his BABIP regresses to his career mark and he stays powerless he'll hit .270 and put up a sub-.700 OPS.
Not if the next fan happens to be Frobby.
That is true. Somewhere on the intertubes there is a picture of Frobby, me, and Tony standing next to each other so Frobby may actually be the next O's fan.

It is my assumption that Nick's BABIP will regress next season. But it's also my assumption that he will have some modest power gains. His Marcel projection for next year (which is the only one I've seen to date) is .275/.342/.377. That's very close to what he did in 2014 (.276/.342/.386). That seems like a reasonable guess to me, though I'd certainly acknowledge that a sub-.700 OPS is not out of the question (see 2013).

While the fan part of me would love to see Nick back in Baltimore, the analyst part of me just wants to see better performance in the corner OF spots than we saw in 2015, no matter who is out there.

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Can_of_corn Hangout Grand Counsel

Can_of_corn

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It is my assumption that Nick's BABIP will regress next season. But it's also my assumption that he will have some modest power gains. His Marcel projection for next year (which is the only one I've seen to date) is .275/.342/.377. That's very close to what he did in 2014 (.276/.342/.386). That seems like a reasonable guess to me, though I'd certainly acknowledge that a sub-.700 OPS is not out of the question (see 2013).

While the fan part of me would love to see Nick back in Baltimore, the analyst part of me just wants to see better performance in the corner OF spots than we saw in 2015, no matter who is out there.

Calm down, no need to be defensive. I was just saying you are more fond of Nick then your average Oriole fan. Nothing wrong with that. No justification needed.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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It is my assumption that Nick's BABIP will regress next season. But it's also my assumption that he will have some modest power gains. His Marcel projection for next year (which is the only one I've seen to date) is .275/.342/.377. That's very close to what he did in 2014 (.276/.342/.386). That seems like a reasonable guess to me, though I'd certainly acknowledge that a sub-.700 OPS is not out of the question (see 2013).

While the fan part of me would love to see Nick back in Baltimore, the analyst part of me just wants to see better performance in the corner OF spots than we saw in 2015, no matter who is out there.

I wouldn't be too surprised by some power gains. But there's also the .291 BABIP from '13. Plug that into his 2015 line and he hits .250-something. Everyone gets old. It's just a matter of when.

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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It is my assumption that Nick's BABIP will regress next season. But it's also my assumption that he will have some modest power gains. His Marcel projection for next year (which is the only one I've seen to date) is .275/.342/.377. That's very close to what he did in 2014 (.276/.342/.386). That seems like a reasonable guess to me, though I'd certainly acknowledge that a sub-.700 OPS is not out of the question (see 2013).

While the fan part of me would love to see Nick back in Baltimore, the analyst part of me just wants to see better performance in the corner OF spots than we saw in 2015, no matter who is out there.

I'm shocked that you do not have more faith in Nick. This is the first off season in a while that Nick has been healthy. I expect that he will workout and gain strength this off season. There is a good chance he has his best year since 2012 next year.

What Nick does next year will depend a lot on where they ask him to hit. If he hits first he will keep a high OBP. If they hit him third he will work more on driving in runs. That's the Nick I know.

Don't read this to say that I believe the O's should reacquire Nick. I don't think the O's can afford him. The O's need to add younger players.

I just thought you would be higher on Nick.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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Calm down, no need to be defensive. I was just saying you are more fond of Nick then your average Oriole fan. Nothing wrong with that. No justification needed.

Did I sound defensive? Honestly, I don't mind being kidded about my man-crush on Nick. I was just giving my opinion on the issue of bringing him back.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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I'm shocked that you do not have more faith in Nick. This is the first off season in a while that Nick has been healthy. I expect that he will workout and gain strength this off season. There is a good chance he has his best year since 2012 next year.

What Nick does next year will depend a lot on where they ask him to hit. If he hits first he will keep a high OBP. If they hit him third he will work more on driving in runs. That's the Nick I know.

Don't read this to say that I believe the O's should reacquire Nick. I don't think the O's can afford him. The O's need to add younger players.

I just thought you would be higher on Nick.

Oh, I think it is entirely possible that he will have his best year since 2012. .290/.350/.415 would not surprise me. But .275/.330/.370 also wouldn't surprise me. I think Nick's days of having a .173 ISO are probably over, considering he's been in the .080-.110 range each of the last three years. If he got to .125 ISO I'd consider that a bounce-back.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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Jeff Todd

The Mariners are “trying hard” to find a taker for veteran outfielder/first baseman/DH Mark Trumbo with tomorrow’s non-tender deadline looming, according to reports from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter) and Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune (Twitter link). It’s previously been reported that many rival executives expect Trumbo to be dealt. The Rockies are among the clubs that have spoken with Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto about the slugger, per Rosenthal.

Trumbo, who’ll turn 30 before the season, is projected by MLBTR to take home a $9.1MM salary in his final season of arbitration eligibility. Though he’s generally continued to produce at better than the league-average rate on offense, and remains a significant power threat in particular, the right-handed hitter has not quite matched his early-career batting levels.

Considering his significant defensive limitations and hefty earning power, Trumbo’s trade value would not appear to be peaking at the moment. (That moment probably came when then-Angels GM Dipoto acquired promising young lefties Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago in exchange for Trumbo before the start of the 2014 season.) Trumbo has never cracked three wins above replacement in his career, whether by measure of Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference, and ended up as about a one to one-and-a-half win player last season.

Of course, teams may still be willing to roll the dice on Trumbo cranking his power output back up over a one-year commitment. He averaged over thirty home runs annually from 2011 through 2013, after all, which represents a fairly rare demonstration of playable pop. While he is roundly considered a sub-par defender in the corner outfield, his ability to play there at least increases his versatility. And Trumbo has rated rather well as a first baseman over the years.

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Number5 Hangout Grand Counsel

Number5

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I wouldn't be too surprised by some power gains. But there's also the .291 BABIP from '13. Plug that into his 2015 line and he hits .250-something. Everyone gets old. It's just a matter of when.

That would normally be after they are young, Cotton. :wedge:

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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I'm shocked that you do not have more faith in Nick. This is the first off season in a while that Nick has been healthy. I expect that he will workout and gain strength this off season. There is a good chance he has his best year since 2012 next year.

What Nick does next year will depend a lot on where they ask him to hit. If he hits first he will keep a high OBP. If they hit him third he will work more on driving in runs. That's the Nick I know.

Don't read this to say that I believe the O's should reacquire Nick. I don't think the O's can afford him. The O's need to add younger players.

I just thought you would be higher on Nick.

Everyone gets old. It's just a matter of when. A large majority of players are worse at 32 than 29. And most players get less healthy as they age.

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srock Veteran All-Star

srock

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Posted
For what it's worth, Horsepower is right - a #3 is not a TOR starter. And so when DD throws in"TOR" and defines it with "a #3," he's just cutting himself - and the entire Orioles organization - some verbal slack for the moment when we all wake up on opening day and realize that Yovani Gallardo was the best we did...

For a team already stacked with #3s and #4s, a TOR would be a refreshing presence. Tillman, Gausman, Jimenez, Gonzalez (assuming Chen is gone)... Which of these guys strikes you as a TOR? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller...?

Gausman or Tillman or Jimenez could be a TOR starter. They have the talent. Will they realize it? It is up to them.

Yovani Gallardo is bascially Miguel Gonzales with more IP per year and a longer MLB track record and a much bigger paycheck.

I don't mind bringing him in, the rotaion needs as many above average starters as it can get and his durability is a big need as well.

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