webbrick2010's Mike Leake threads

[TheDirtyBird]

I listen to this show called "the morning men" on Sirius XM, they do this segment called "all the guests they didn't book." We could do a thing where we point of all the people we haven't signed and how it hurt us [emoji16]

[DrungoHazewood]

The O's clearly don't seem concerned with K rate for SP.

There's not being that concerned with K rate, and then there's ponying up $80M or more for a guy with a below average K rate and a 100 ERA+ in the NL.

[DrungoHazewood]

I dunno, I think it's kind of endearing. And hey, at least there's no question on where the guy stands.

No question, you know what you're missing when you use the ignore feature.

[srock]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-upcoming-mike-leake-mistake/

FanGraphs has a follow up justifying the contract.

Basically, he is young, durable, dependable, average, and has offensive and defensive upside making this a decent signing in this market.

You could argue this market is a market to avoid all together, methinks.

[srock]

I don't see him as a backend starter. He's roughly equivalent to Chen, but younger. I had predicted 5/$80 mm for Chen earlier this offseason, but now I think he may get a little more.

I wouldn't say equivalent to Chen.

Leake is average. As average as it gets. ERA+ last 4 years: 90, 112, 99, 106

Chen is above average and trending the right direction. ERA+ last 4 years: 105, 100, 111, 124.

Both have a been healthy.

The difference to me is 2 years in age and style. Leake gets grounders, Chen not so much.

I won't be surprised to see Chen sign for 5/100 after this. Maybe 4 years if he gets more AAV.

[weams]

I agree, the Phillies are going to lose 90 this season.

But they are building for the future. In Andy they trust.

[weams]

We can always count on webbrick2010 to look on the sunny side.

I do think Leake was an appealing option and I'm sorry he's off the board.

But he did not cost a pick. So Chen may not be worth more.

[DrungoHazewood]

FanGraphs has a follow up justifying the contract.

Basically, he is young, durable, dependable, average, and has offensive and defensive upside making this a decent signing in this market.

You could argue this market is a market to avoid all together, methinks.

We're seeing a widening of the gap between free agent prices and pre-arb, or pre-free agency prices. I think we're already at a point where it's questionable to sign players below, say, two wins at free agent rates. You can get a guy like Miguel Gonzalez for $5M for one year, or you can get Mike Leake with a FIP half a run lower at 5/80 or whatever it was. There's a substantial overlap between the likely outcomes of Gonzalez and Leake. But Gonzalez is 15 times cheaper.

It's like Markakis. Why the heck do you commit $44M to a guy whose salary implies that he's going to be, at best, an average player? If you have any kind of a budget I don't see how you sign an average or worse player for the next five years for $10M, $15M a year. It's nonsense.

They're talking Maeda costing about what Leake costs. But Maeda actually has some upside, some chance at being worth 3 wins. Leake basically doesn't, he doesn't have that far to go to be worthless. If his sinker stops sinking a bit he's unpitchable.

I don't see how a team with any kind of budget constraints would even be thinking about a Leake or a Gallardo.

[fansince71]

No way PA is letting DD sign back end starters for 80M. Crazy! I agree he might not be a 4 or 5 but he's not a 1 or 2 either. Whats Kazmir gonna cost?

[DrungoHazewood]

I wouldn't say equivalent to Chen.

Leake is average. As average as it gets. ERA+ last 4 years: 90, 112, 99, 106

Chen is above average and trending the right direction. ERA+ last 4 years: 105, 100, 111, 124.

Both have a been healthy.

The difference to me is 2 years in age and style. Leake gets grounders, Chen not so much.

I won't be surprised to see Chen sign for 5/100 after this. Maybe 4 years if he gets more AAV.

Also, Leake was an average pitcher in a .475 league. Chen an average-ish pitcher in the .525 league.

[Aristotelian]

Leake's career 3.88 ERA in the NL Central does not compare well with Chen's 3.72 in the NL East. Leake put up 3.70 the last two years vs 3.34 and 3.54 for Chen. Chen has the better K rate and BB rate. I don't think it's a close comparison.

Leake is exactly what we don't need. He would fill a hole in the rotation but would not be an upgrade. Meanwhile we would be committed to an averagish guy for 5 years. That would be OK if we had a couple of studs ahead of him, but we have a rotation full of averagish worse-then-Chen guys.

Unfortunately the true front end SPs are all off the board. If we get Kazmir, we might tread water. I am bracing myself for Gallardo, who I would view as a downgrade from Chen about even with Leake, but costs a pick. Argh. We are basically praying that Gausman takes the leap regardless of who we sign.

[DrungoHazewood]

Meanwhile we would be committed to an averagish guy for 5 years.

Currently average-ish in a .475 league. But transitioning to a harder league with no DH coming off his worst year in K/9.

Weird Leake fact: he's gained velocity each year he's been in the league.

[Tx Oriole]

have signed Mike Leake

5yrs/80 million for an extreme GB innings eating pitcher with no injury issues and no loss of a draft pick

Cardinals are so well run

Nobody else makes any sense for the O's

Hopefully we won't waste money on Gallardo or Kazmir

Save the money, we are losing 90 games no matter what we do for the rest of the offseason (and that includes wasting a boatload on Davis)

Why so pessimistic. Just because DD didnt sign this pitcher the team will lose 90

games? Merry Christmas.

[Redskins Rick]

Why so pessimistic. Just because DD didnt sign this pitcher the team will lose 90

games? Merry Christmas.

Better hide the sugar water colored with food dye, before somebody starts drinking it.

[Larry18]

The Cardinals have an excellent track record of selecting players that will succeed in their system.