The Case for P. Alvarez

[CaptainRedbeard]

Olney confirms that Boras is going to play the waiting game with Alvarez, as expected. I wonder if Boras is willing to wait into the season and he starts missing games? If we get through most of ST and an opportunity hasn't opened up, he may come back to us. Even then I doubt the Orioles will spend the money on him, as much as I want them to, because they'll don't want to lose Reimold or Rickard.

Pedro Alvarez will seemingly wait to if any additional opportunities present themselves during Spring Training before signing, as ESPN?s Buster Olney wrote in yesterday?s blog post (Insider required). Olney texted agent Scott Boras about his client and was met with the following reply: ?Waiting for the best situation. As with all valued players the demand increases as spring training begins.? Interest in the defensively challenged Alvarez has been tepid thus far, but spring injuries often do create opportunities for players seeking a home. An injury to a club?s designated hitter or first baseman could create a suitor for Alvarez that doesn?t presently exist.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/rockies-interest-ian-desmond-minimal.html

[fearthenoodle]

I still like Alvarez as a bench bat. I don't think he gets more than $3MM guaranteed.

[sportsfan8703]

Getting Alvarez would be like when we brought in Eric Davis for the 96' team. For those that can remember, I barely can sense I was like 13. We found him AB's. People are going to get hurt. Especially when you consider that Reimold and Kim are penciled into get all the LF AB's.

I think he'd sign with us. Buck would hide his weaknesses, get him AB's, and he'd get to hit in a stacked lineup, that is good for LH's.

Let's say it's a 1/3 deal with incentives. I think it's a good fit for both sides. The Yanks, BOS, Tor, and Baltimore are all teams that will be looking for DH's next year. And those are the teams that jump out at me.

[OFFNY]

o

(POSTED ON FEBRUARY 12th)

The consensus opinion appears to be that the Orioles will be done adding hitters once they land one of Fowler, Bruce, or P. Alvarez. I'm not saying it's realistic, and who knows what our payroll restrictions are at this point, but I think there's a compelling case to add P. Alvarez even if we do land Fowler.

Upsides

1. The Orioles still have only Davis and Kim as LH hitters on their ML roster who project to be better vs. RHP than LHP. Wieters and Fowler are better vs. LHP. (Ignoring Flaherty for these purposes). Alvarez crushes RHP, with a career wRC+ of 118.

2. We are assuming that Kim can step in and play LF at the major league level. Our backup plan is a revolving door made up of the likes of Reimold, Rickard, Navarro, Urrutia, Hoes, and D. Alvarez. Navarro and Urrutia are the only LH hitters and they look to be replacement level, at best, in the strong side of a platoon. The RH hitters would all be over-exposed as everyday players.

3. Davis and Trumbo both have experience in the OF. In effect, Alvarez provides the backup for all 3 OF positions (Fowler can cover CF), 1B, and DH. 7 players for 5 positions, with one of them being a RH platoon partner for Kim/Alvarez getting very few ABs, means there are still plenty of ABs to go around. An injury to any of the 4 every day players, or Kim, means Alvarez gets full playing time vs RHP. He'd probably get 400 AB's over the course of the season.

4. Alvarez has almost no market, and can likely be had for $3-4MM, and at most $5MM. Carter got a $2.5MM deal, so Alvarez is going to want to eclipse that, but outside of that, he has no bargaining power, with an extraordinarily weak market:

-No NL team will want him / can offer him as much playing time unless they want to make their incumbent 1B part of platoon or play them in the OF part time. Alvarez is also a horrible 1B defensively. Only the Padres and Rockies even look like conceivable fits to me, with no rumored interest.

-The AL teams have very few incumbent DH who can play elsewhere, again with no rumored interest. Only the Indians look like they could use him in a platoon with their 1B, Napoli, who they gave a large $7MM contract this offseason.

Downsides

1. We can't keep both Rickard and Reimold on the 25-man roster if everybody is healthy. I think this downside is mitigated by many factors, namely:

-We only need one RH bench OF to platoon with Kim/Alvarez. The other won't be getting playing time anyway.

-We can likely keep Reimold by having no team want to claim him due to his contract, and sending him to the minors. Alternatively, we can cut him before the season for a small loss.

-There's a good chance that one projected player for the 25-man roster won't be healthy to start the season anyway, and it won't be an issue until further down the road.

-Even if we lose one of Rickard or Reimold, we have Hoes and D. Alvarez in the minors as RH corner OF. Plenty of depth as RH platoon OF, and only one projected platoon they need to cover.

2. One of Davis/Trumbo has to play in the OF much of the time in order to start Alvarez. This is an unsavory reality, and the only real downside IMO, with a few smaller mitigating factors:

-Kim may not be a better OF than Davis/Trumbo anyway.

-Davis/Trumbo might get hurt.

-Fowler may not have the arm for RF, in which case playing him in LF and Davis/Trumbo in RF (who have good/decent arms) lessens the blow of having them out there.

-Even if everybody is healthy and playing well, Alvarez can carve out some playing time by pinch hitting and starting against tough RHP instead of Trumbo.

Summary

Alvarez could be a huge upgrade to the bench, at a bargain price. He profiles very well offensively for OPACY and provides depth at an area in which we have very little as a LH hitter. He'd play the role that many currently envision for Jimmy Paredes except that he's, you know, good (and Paredes is likely a 40 man casualty anyway). The downside of Davis/Trumbo seeing more OF time is worth the upside of having him. If there's a few more bills burning a hole in PA's pocket even after we add Gallardo and Fowler, Alvarez would still be a quality addition IMO.

You made the case.

It was done.