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Keith Law: Sisco no. 81 prospect, Harvey no. 100


Frobby

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Didn't know that' date=' just took a quick glance to see what kids who dropped went for last year.

I know 1 year isn't a good sample, it was just more difficult to find signing bonus and slot values in one place for past drafts. I haven't followed the draft in years past too much, I started with Harvey so I'm fairly new to this process.[/quote']

No worries. Full details are he had TJ surgery and teams were sporadically valuing him healthy because he wasn't hitting as well as they had hoped. So, ultimately, he decided signing and rehabbing with a big league organization was preferable to trying to rehab in college where he'd likely miss most of his freshman year (at least behind the plate). I don't think you are wrong in saying it's smart to try and grab this type of player. Just tough to build a draft around them because the profile is a lot more volatile than your typical 2nd rounder.

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No worries. Full details are he had TJ surgery and teams were sporadically valuing him healthy because he wasn't hitting as well as they had hoped. So, ultimately, he decided signing and rehabbing with a big league organization was preferable to trying to rehab in college where he'd likely miss most of his freshman year (at least behind the plate). I don't think you are wrong in saying it's smart to try and grab this type of player. Just tough to build a draft around them because the profile is a lot more volatile than your typical 2nd rounder.

Thanks for the analysis. My only question is would a pick like this be anymore volatile than the type of players the O's already draft early on? I mean Mountcastle seemed like a huge underslot and from what I have gathered on this site the Orioles always seem to draft signable guys over value picks? Maybe they should try the other way since our farm team seems so down as is (not sure if that is easier said then done).

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Thanks for the analysis. My only question is would a pick like this be anymore volatile than the type of players the O's already draft early on? I mean Mountcastle seemed like a huge underslot and from what I have gathered on this site the Orioles always seem to draft signable guys over value picks? Maybe they should try the other way since our farm team seems so down as is (not sure if that is easier said then done).

They supposedly reached when they picked Gonzalez (2014) and yet they gave him overslot money (I didn't care for the pick). Gausman received more than slot when he signed and was ranked around his draft point.

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They supposedly reached when they picked Gonzalez (2014) and yet they gave him overslot money (I didn't care for the pick). Gausman received more than slot when he signed and was ranked around his draft point.

Well that would explain part of the reason that we have a bad farm system. You would think that if you are going to sign overslot it wouldn't be a reach.

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Thanks for the analysis. My only question is would a pick like this be anymore volatile than the type of players the O's already draft early on? I mean Mountcastle seemed like a huge underslot and from what I have gathered on this site the Orioles always seem to draft signable guys over value picks? Maybe they should try the other way since our farm team seems so down as is (not sure if that is easier said then done).

I was referring specifically to the value profile where you grab an injured player at a risky position who, if healthy and if he develops, will be a big get. Someone like a Betts or a Matuella or Dylan Cease. I think picks like Gonzalez and Mountcastle are likewise risky, as you rightfully point out, for different reasons.

Any time you talk overslot signings you are talking about extra risk in some form -- if there wasn't that extra risk the player wouldn't be available at the lower slot for you to sign. It's a complicated calculus to try and figure out which risk types are more tolerable, for sure.

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Well that would explain part of the reason that we have a bad farm system. You would think that if you are going to sign overslot it wouldn't be a reach.

He was a third round pick. I think it isn't surprising there is a degree of variance in evaluations at that level.

Like I said I didn't like the pick but it is kinda hard to have expectations for a third rounder.

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Apologies if I'm dense and totally missed this, but didn't see the below link posted in this thread - it is Law's writeup on the Orioles system. Though labeled as Insider material, I'm not an Insider and was able to read the whole article. Figured I'd share - some surprising rankings, and he frankly crushes Bundy as a prospect. Mods feel free to nuke this post if it's elsewhere and I just missed it.

http://espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post/_/id/4719/baltimore-orioles-top-10-prospects-2

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Apologies if I'm dense and totally missed this, but didn't see the below link posted in this thread - it is Law's writeup on the Orioles system. Though labeled as Insider material, I'm not an Insider and was able to read the whole article. Figured I'd share - some surprising rankings, and he frankly crushes Bundy as a prospect. Mods feel free to nuke this post if it's elsewhere and I just missed it.

http://espn.go.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post/_/id/4719/baltimore-orioles-top-10-prospects-2

Yeah, I saw that. Law is obviously not a Mancini fan - says his swing is too big and he chases too many pitches out of the zone and lacks power. If that's the case, why did Mancini have a decent SO rate and hit with power? Seems to me he went by old scouting reports that are no longer correct. Rating Mancini behind guys like Jonah Heim and Ofelky Peralta? No offense to either, but seriously?

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Something else I found interesting:

Jon: Does the string of Baltimore pitching non success stories scare you away from Kevin Gausman? How would you compare the outlook between him and a not as heralded prospect, up and comer like DeSclafani or Heston?

Klaw: The way they’ve messed with his position on the rubber would scare me, yes. But if he goes somewhere else, like Jake Arrieta, he could become the star he was supposed to be out of LSU.

It's totes his position on the rubber and not the inconsistent breaking pitch holding him back.

Did you hear he scrapped the slider and is going with the curve this year?

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I gotta say, my optimism for Sisco is growing with everything I read about him. Bundy and Harvey's health will obviously be big, but Sisco's defense will be easily the most interesting storyline this Spring Training for me. He should hopefully stick around pretty late into camp, as there's always plenty of looks for catchers as they build up their innings.

This is one area of player development that I actually have alot of confidence in the Orioles. They've done well with developing catchers as defenders. Caleb Joseph is a great success story, and we have consistently have guys like Ward and Heim bouncing around that get rave reviews.

Sisco could really blow up as a prospect if he can cut it behind the dish. He's still very young and has done tremendously well with the bat. He gets knocked for the lack of power, but the plate discipline and contact are exemplary. Keep in mind that he's the #8 prospect by KATOH, which assumes average defense per position. His statistical profile is very strong. If he can pass the Buck test for catcher defense, which is an admittedly high bar, he's got a very high ceiling.

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Might be a correlation between the third pitch and foot placement on the rubber. I find the foot placement on the rubber to be a common issues within the O's organization. It's been mentioned with Eduardo Rodriguez, Arrieta (I think), and Gausman.

Gausman hasn't even been able to commit on what his third pitch is, sometimes it's a slider, sometime it's a slurve this year it's a curve.

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Just because someone has an opinion you don't agree with doesn't mean they have no credibility. It just means they're saying things you don't want to hear.

If you think our lack of pitcher development/pitchers not doing well here and then going elsewhere and succeeding is one giant case of coincidence and bad luck, I don't know what to tell you.

How many pitchers have not done well here and then gone somewhere else and succeeded? Honestly, those kinds of things tend to cut both ways. Jeremy Guthrie failed in Cleveland, succeeded here. Rodrigo Lopez failed in San Diego, did much better in Baltimore. Miguel Gonzalez couldn't find a job with a major league team after being dropped by the Red Sox, and succeeded with us. Obviously, there have been examples going the other way, especially Arrieta. But I don't think MLB is full of former Oriole pitching prospects who thrived when they left our organization.

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Just because someone has an opinion you don't agree with doesn't mean they have no credibility. It just means they're saying things you don't want to hear.

If you think our lack of pitcher development/pitchers not doing well here and then going elsewhere and succeeding is one giant case of coincidence and bad luck, I don't know what to tell you.

Correct.

And by the same token, just because somebody is a scout does not necessarily mean that their opinion is superior/more credible than somebody who is not, of which you facetiously took refuge in in one of your previous posts.

Right, I'll take your word for it, and disregard what the guy who scouts players for a living said.

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