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Keith Law: Sisco no. 81 prospect, Harvey no. 100


Frobby

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How many pitchers have not done well here and then gone somewhere else and succeeded? Honestly, those kinds of things tend to cut both ways. Jeremy Guthrie failed in Cleveland, succeeded here. Rodrigo Lopez failed in San Diego, did much better in Baltimore. Miguel Gonzalez couldn't find a job with a major league team after being dropped by the Red Sox, and succeeded with us. Obviously, there have been examples going the other way, especially Arrieta. But I don't think MLB is full of former Oriole pitching prospects who thrived when they left our organization.

Guthrie was more a case of not getting an opportunity with Cleveland and there being no room for him when he ran out of options. I wouldn't call him a failure with the tribe.

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Guthrie was more a case of not getting an opportunity with Cleveland and there being no room for him when he ran out of options. I wouldn't call him a failure with the tribe.

Maybe the word "failure" is a tad harsh, but Guthrie had a 4.37 ERA as a minor leaguer, 4.96 at AAA and 6.08 in the majors before he ran out of options and the Tribe dropped him. It's true he didn't get much of an opportunity to pitch in the majors with Cleveland, but that's because he didn't earn one.

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Maybe the word "failure" is a tad harsh, but Guthrie had a 4.37 ERA as a minor leaguer, 4.96 at AAA and 6.08 in the majors before he ran out of options and the Tribe dropped him. It's true he didn't get much of an opportunity to pitch in the majors with Cleveland, but that's because he didn't earn one.
You wouldn't call a 1st round college pitcher with a 4.67 ERA in 67 AAA starts a failure? They didn't lose him for nothing because he was a success.

No I don't think he was a failure. He was signed to a major league deal and was jumped right to Double-A. Definitely scuffled some but in 2006 threw very well at Triple-A and was clearly ready for an extended trial at the major league level. The Indians happened to have an incredibly healthy staff that year, so Guthrie was limited to relief work. He wasn't established enough to bump anyone off the 25-man in 2007 so they took the risk of exposing him to the waiver wire.

That was a relatively young staff outside of Byrd (as the veteran) and they all returned in starting rolls in 2007. There wasn't a marked improvement in his peripherals in Baltimore -- he was mostly around a 4.5 FIP arm. I think more than anything it was a savvy move by the Orioles to look past the stats and give him the leash to establish himself as a major league starter.

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They could have traded him if he had some value. Instead they risked losing him for nothing and did.

He doesn't get option years back when traded, so the fact he was unproven mattered. If you want to say he wasn't worth the returns offered okay. If *you* want to call him a failure I am fine with that too. I'd certainly call him a disappointment considering he was considered an advanced arm at Stanford (though mostly because he could throw four pitches for strikes -- he didn't maintain velocity and had some stinkers his junior year).

Again, I look at the peripherals and he looks like pretty much the same pitcher. Maybe I'm just not remembering the big developmental changes Baltimore teased out of him.

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I seem to recall Guthrie giving pretty significant credit to Leo Mazzone (then our pitching coach)!for helping him with his approach. But I don't want to split hairs over whether Guthrie was a failure in Cleveland. My main point was that every organization probably has some examples of young guys who did significantly better for them than they did for a prior team, and some examples of guys who did much better when they left the organization. The Orioles have had some of each over the years, but I can't think of a ton of examples of pitchers they gave up on who bloomed elsewhere. Arrieta clearly is one, and you could see EdRod that way, though I don't think an inconsistent half season at Bowie means he was failing in our organization.

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I seem to recall Guthrie giving pretty significant credit to Leo Mazzone (then our pitching coach)!for helping him with his approach. But I don't want to split hairs over whether Guthrie was a failure in Cleveland. My main point was that every organization probably has some examples of young guys who did significantly better for them than they did for a prior team, and some examples of guys who did much better when they left the organization. The Orioles have had some of each over the years, but I can't think of a ton of examples of pitchers they gave up on who bloomed elsewhere. Arrieta clearly is one, and you could see EdRod that way, though I don't think an inconsistent half season at Bowie means he was failing in our organization.

I am sure you're right w/r/t Mazzone helping Guthrie. And you are right we are really splitting hairs as to what constitutes a "failure" in talking about prospects.

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